NFL Props — Model Board

Edges

Week 3 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed

Player	Matchup	Market	Bet	Book	Book odds	Our fair odds	Edge
Mike Washington Jr.	MIA vs SF	Receiving yds	Over 0.5	bettingpros	+130	-732*	+44.5
Mike Washington Jr.	MIA vs SF	Rushing yds	Under 22.5	bettingpros	+107	+1033*	+39.5
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	Rush + rec yds	Under 83.5	bettingpros	+107	+525*	+32.3
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs DEN	Rushing yds	Under 51.5	bettingpros	+107	+457*	+30.4
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	Rush + rec yds	Under 75.5	bettingpros	+107	+379*	+27.4
Dawson Knox	BUF vs DET	Receiving yds	Over 14.5	bettingpros	+127	-248*	+27.2
Lamar Jackson	BAL vs NO	Rushing yds	Under 39.5	bettingpros	+104	+352*	+26.9
David Montgomery	HOU vs CIN	Rushing yds	Under 66.5	bettingpros	+107	+358*	+26.5
Michael Wilson	ARI vs SEA	Receiving yds	Over 39.5	bettingpros	+104	-280*	+24.7
Kayshon Boutte	HOU vs CIN	Receiving yds	Over 19.5	bettingpros	-107	-315*	+24.2
Darren Waller	CAR vs ATL	Receiving yds	Over 17.5	bettingpros	-107	-297*	+23.1
Jared Goff	DET vs BUF	Rushing yds	Over 0.5	bettingpros	+146	-166*	+21.8
Mark Andrews	BAL vs NO	Receiving yds	Under 48.5	bettingpros	+107	+277*	+21.8
Jacoby Brissett	ARI vs SEA	Rushing yds	Over 5.5	bettingpros	-107	-272*	+21.5
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	JAX vs DEN	Rushing yds	Over 25.5	bettingpros	-107	-270*	+21.3
Tyquan Thornton	KC vs IND	Receiving yds	Over 14.5	bettingpros	+100	-237*	+20.3
Brock Purdy	SF vs MIA	Rushing yds	Over 15.5	bettingpros	+105	-223*	+20.3
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	Rushing yds	Under 64.5	bettingpros	+107	+251*	+19.8
Bucky Irving	TB vs CLE	Receiving yds	Over 14.5	bettingpros	-107	-246*	+19.4
Drew Lock	SEA vs ARI	Passing TDs	Under 1.5	bettingpros	+189	+534*	+18.8
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs NE	Rushing yds	Over 0.5	bettingpros	-110	-246*	+18.7
Kyle Juszczyk	SF vs MIA	Receiving yds	Over 8.5	bettingpros	-107	-237*	+18.6
Woody Marks	HOU vs CIN	Receiving yds	Over 7.5	bettingpros	-107	-229*	+17.9
Samaje Perine	CIN vs HOU	Rushing yds	Over 14.5	bettingpros	-107	-228*	+17.8
Drake Maye	NE vs PIT	Rushing yds	Over 24.5	bettingpros	+104	-199*	+17.6
Tony Pollard	TEN vs PHI	Rushing yds	Over 44.5	bettingpros	-104	-217*	+17.4
Kyle Pitts Sr.	ATL vs CAR	Receiving yds	Over 34.5	bettingpros	-107	-219*	+16.9
Jaylen Warren	PIT vs NE	Rushing yds	Over 40.5	bettingpros	-107	-217*	+16.8
Mike Washington Jr.	MIA vs SF	Receptions	Over 0.5	bettingpros	+112	-176*	+16.6
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs TEN	Receiving yds	Over 11.5	bettingpros	-107	-209*	+16.0
Quinshon Judkins	CLE vs TB	Receiving yds	Over 9.5	bettingpros	-107	-208*	+15.9
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	Receiving yds	Over 9.5	bettingpros	-107	-205*	+15.5
Jerry Jeudy	CLE vs TB	Receiving yds	Over 26.5	bettingpros	-107	-202*	+15.2
Deebo Samuel Sr.	SF vs MIA	Rushing yds	Over 5.5	bettingpros	-107	-202*	+15.2
Jalen Hurts	PHI vs TEN	Rushing yds	Under 31.5	bettingpros	+107	+193*	+14.1
Samaje Perine	CIN vs HOU	Rush + rec yds	Over 25.5	bettingpros	-107	-191*	+14.0
Patrick Mahomes II	KC vs IND	Rushing yds	Over 17.5	bettingpros	-112	-200*	+13.9
Tyquan Thornton	KC vs IND	Receptions	Over 1.5	bettingpros	+184	+105*	+13.7
Juwan Johnson	NO vs BAL	Receiving yds	Over 29.5	bettingpros	-107	-188*	+13.6
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs GB	Receiving yds	Over 4.5	bettingpros	-107	-188*	+13.6

Line capture

Append-only store · every snapshot retained

31,131line observations

10snapshots

527players

1,102lines that moved

Market	Rows	Players	Books
Anytime TD	10,591	517	6
Receiving yds	7,089	196	7
Receptions	6,399	194	7
Rushing yds	3,396	94	7
Passing yds	1,517	35	7
Passing TDs	1,479	35	7
Rush + rec yds	660	46	4

Projections

All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds

Passing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ DEN	290.1
Jared Goff	DET vs NYJ	264.9
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	257.4
Tyler Shough	NO vs LV	257.1
Caleb Williams	CHI vs PHI	252.7
Joe Burrow	CIN @ PIT	251.0
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs NE	246.5
Jordan Love	GB vs ATL	246.3
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ SF	240.6
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs CIN	236.5
Dak Prescott	DAL vs BAL	231.3
Brock Purdy	SF vs ARI	227.4

Passing TDs

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ DEN	2.13
Jared Goff	DET vs NYJ	1.99
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	1.86
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs NE	1.79
Joe Burrow	CIN @ PIT	1.77
Brock Purdy	SF vs ARI	1.62
Jordan Love	GB vs ATL	1.61
Tyler Shough	NO vs LV	1.60
Dak Prescott	DAL vs BAL	1.49
Caleb Williams	CHI vs PHI	1.47
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ MIA	1.42
Sam Darnold	SEA @ WAS	1.41

Rushing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL @ DAL	99.7
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ MIA	85.6
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ GB	80.1
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ CHI	77.0
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs HOU	77.0
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NYJ	76.0
James Cook	BUF vs LAC	75.2
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ NO	71.2
De'Von Achane	MIA vs KC	68.5
Breece Hall	NYJ @ DET	64.8
Chase Brown	CIN @ PIT	64.7
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs PHI	64.5
Tony Pollard	TEN @ NYG	62.3
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs ARI	62.0
J.K. Dobbins	DEN vs LA	61.6

Receiving yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ DEN	91.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ WAS	87.3
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	85.5
Chris Olave	NO vs LV	83.4
Zay Flowers	BAL @ DAL	69.6
Malik Nabers	NYG vs TEN	68.4
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ PIT	68.3
Trey McBride	ARI @ SF	66.0
A.J. Brown	NE @ JAX	66.0
Michael Wilson	ARI @ SF	65.8
Parker Washington	JAX vs NE	65.0
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ NYG	64.6
Jameson Williams	DET vs NYJ	64.5
Justin Jefferson	MIN @ TB	64.0
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ DET	62.7

Receptions

Player	Matchup	Projection
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	7.27
Puka Nacua	LA @ DEN	7.17
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ WAS	6.52
Trey McBride	ARI @ SF	6.47
Chris Olave	NO vs LV	6.14
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ PIT	6.08
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ NYG	5.48
Rashee Rice	KC @ MIA	5.43
Justin Jefferson	MIN @ TB	5.26
Malik Nabers	NYG vs TEN	5.17
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ GB	5.15
Khalil Shakir	BUF vs LAC	5.10
A.J. Brown	NE @ JAX	4.95
Zay Flowers	BAL @ DAL	4.89
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs BAL	4.80

Anytime TD

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NYJ	62%	-164
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs ARI	62%	-162
Derrick Henry	BAL @ DAL	58%	-138
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ MIA	57%	-133
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	53%	-115
Javonte Williams	DAL vs BAL	50%	-100
James Cook	BUF vs LAC	49%	+105
Cam Skattebo	NYG vs TEN	48%	+107
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs HOU	47%	+111
Ty Johnson	BUF vs LAC	47%	+113
Puka Nacua	LA @ DEN	47%	+113
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	47%	+115
Josh Jacobs	GB vs ATL	46%	+116
Chase Brown	CIN @ PIT	44%	+126
Kyren Williams	LA @ DEN	44%	+128

Read this before acting on anything above

These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.

Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.