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Week 4 · 2026 season · Thu 01 Oct · 1 games
Last updated 03 Oct 2026, 17:51 UTCWeek 4 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed
| Player | Matchup | Market | Bet | Book | Book odds | Our fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Washington Jr. | MIA vs SF | Receiving yds | Over 0.5 | bettingpros | +130 | -732* | +44.5 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | MIA vs SF | Rushing yds | Under 22.5 | bettingpros | +107 | +1033* | +39.5 |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC vs LV | Rush + rec yds | Under 83.5 | bettingpros | +107 | +525* | +32.3 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs DEN | Rushing yds | Under 51.5 | bettingpros | +107 | +457* | +30.4 |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI vs MIN | Rush + rec yds | Under 75.5 | bettingpros | +107 | +379* | +27.4 |
| Dawson Knox | BUF vs DET | Receiving yds | Over 14.5 | bettingpros | +127 | -248* | +27.2 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL vs NO | Rushing yds | Under 39.5 | bettingpros | +104 | +352* | +26.9 |
| David Montgomery | HOU vs CIN | Rushing yds | Under 66.5 | bettingpros | +107 | +358* | +26.5 |
| Michael Wilson | ARI vs SEA | Receiving yds | Over 39.5 | bettingpros | +104 | -280* | +24.7 |
| Kayshon Boutte | HOU vs CIN | Receiving yds | Over 19.5 | bettingpros | -107 | -315* | +24.2 |
| Darren Waller | CAR vs ATL | Receiving yds | Over 17.5 | bettingpros | -107 | -297* | +23.1 |
| Jared Goff | DET vs BUF | Rushing yds | Over 0.5 | bettingpros | +146 | -166* | +21.8 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL vs NO | Receiving yds | Under 48.5 | bettingpros | +107 | +277* | +21.8 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI vs SEA | Rushing yds | Over 5.5 | bettingpros | -107 | -272* | +21.5 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX vs DEN | Rushing yds | Over 25.5 | bettingpros | -107 | -270* | +21.3 |
| Tyquan Thornton | KC vs IND | Receiving yds | Over 14.5 | bettingpros | +100 | -237* | +20.3 |
| Brock Purdy | SF vs MIA | Rushing yds | Over 15.5 | bettingpros | +105 | -223* | +20.3 |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC vs LV | Rushing yds | Under 64.5 | bettingpros | +107 | +251* | +19.8 |
| Bucky Irving | TB vs CLE | Receiving yds | Over 14.5 | bettingpros | -107 | -246* | +19.4 |
| Drew Lock | SEA vs ARI | Passing TDs | Under 1.5 | bettingpros | +189 | +534* | +18.8 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT vs NE | Rushing yds | Over 0.5 | bettingpros | -110 | -246* | +18.7 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF vs MIA | Receiving yds | Over 8.5 | bettingpros | -107 | -237* | +18.6 |
| Woody Marks | HOU vs CIN | Receiving yds | Over 7.5 | bettingpros | -107 | -229* | +17.9 |
| Samaje Perine | CIN vs HOU | Rushing yds | Over 14.5 | bettingpros | -107 | -228* | +17.8 |
| Drake Maye | NE vs PIT | Rushing yds | Over 24.5 | bettingpros | +104 | -199* | +17.6 |
| Tony Pollard | TEN vs PHI | Rushing yds | Over 44.5 | bettingpros | -104 | -217* | +17.4 |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL vs CAR | Receiving yds | Over 34.5 | bettingpros | -107 | -219* | +16.9 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT vs NE | Rushing yds | Over 40.5 | bettingpros | -107 | -217* | +16.8 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | MIA vs SF | Receptions | Over 0.5 | bettingpros | +112 | -176* | +16.6 |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI vs TEN | Receiving yds | Over 11.5 | bettingpros | -107 | -209* | +16.0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE vs TB | Receiving yds | Over 9.5 | bettingpros | -107 | -208* | +15.9 |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI vs MIN | Receiving yds | Over 9.5 | bettingpros | -107 | -205* | +15.5 |
| Jerry Jeudy | CLE vs TB | Receiving yds | Over 26.5 | bettingpros | -107 | -202* | +15.2 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF vs MIA | Rushing yds | Over 5.5 | bettingpros | -107 | -202* | +15.2 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI vs TEN | Rushing yds | Under 31.5 | bettingpros | +107 | +193* | +14.1 |
| Samaje Perine | CIN vs HOU | Rush + rec yds | Over 25.5 | bettingpros | -107 | -191* | +14.0 |
| Patrick Mahomes II | KC vs IND | Rushing yds | Over 17.5 | bettingpros | -112 | -200* | +13.9 |
| Tyquan Thornton | KC vs IND | Receptions | Over 1.5 | bettingpros | +184 | +105* | +13.7 |
| Juwan Johnson | NO vs BAL | Receiving yds | Over 29.5 | bettingpros | -107 | -188* | +13.6 |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ vs GB | Receiving yds | Over 4.5 | bettingpros | -107 | -188* | +13.6 |
Append-only store · every snapshot retained
| Market | Rows | Players | Books |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 13,034 | 562 | 6 |
| Receiving yds | 9,037 | 233 | 7 |
| Receptions | 8,165 | 233 | 7 |
| Rushing yds | 4,358 | 113 | 7 |
| Passing yds | 1,871 | 40 | 7 |
| Passing TDs | 1,831 | 40 | 7 |
| Rush + rec yds | 950 | 54 | 5 |
All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT @ CLE | 223.3 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE vs PIT | 183.7 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT @ CLE | 1.29 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE vs PIT | 1.05 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | PIT @ CLE | 65.2 |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE vs PIT | 51.0 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE vs PIT | 30.1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | CLE vs PIT | 21.4 |
| Raheim Sanders | CLE vs PIT | 14.1 |
| Travis Homer | PIT @ CLE | 12.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT @ CLE | 7.5 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | PIT @ CLE | 51.4 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE vs PIT | 43.4 |
| Denzel Boston | CLE vs PIT | 41.0 |
| Michael Pittman | PIT @ CLE | 35.3 |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT @ CLE | 34.0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | CLE vs PIT | 33.3 |
| KC Concepcion | CLE vs PIT | 31.9 |
| Roman Wilson | PIT @ CLE | 31.6 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT @ CLE | 22.4 |
| Darnell Washington | PIT @ CLE | 21.7 |
| Isaiah Bond | CLE vs PIT | 20.3 |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE vs PIT | 17.2 |
| Raheim Sanders | CLE vs PIT | 14.3 |
| Ben Skowronek | PIT @ CLE | 10.7 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | CLE vs PIT | 2.4 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE vs PIT | 4.16 |
| DK Metcalf | PIT @ CLE | 4.05 |
| Michael Pittman | PIT @ CLE | 3.20 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT @ CLE | 3.06 |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT @ CLE | 3.00 |
| KC Concepcion | CLE vs PIT | 2.94 |
| Denzel Boston | CLE vs PIT | 2.86 |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE vs PIT | 2.66 |
| Jerry Jeudy | CLE vs PIT | 2.64 |
| Roman Wilson | PIT @ CLE | 2.36 |
| Darnell Washington | PIT @ CLE | 2.34 |
| Raheim Sanders | CLE vs PIT | 1.98 |
| Isaiah Bond | CLE vs PIT | 1.32 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | CLE vs PIT | 1.05 |
| Ben Skowronek | PIT @ CLE | 0.92 |
| Player | Matchup | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | PIT @ CLE | 38% | +160 |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE vs PIT | 38% | +167 |
| DK Metcalf | PIT @ CLE | 26% | +284 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE vs PIT | 24% | +323 |
| Michael Pittman | PIT @ CLE | 22% | +365 |
| KC Concepcion | CLE vs PIT | 22% | +365 |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT @ CLE | 20% | +396 |
| Jerry Jeudy | CLE vs PIT | 17% | +479 |
| Denzel Boston | CLE vs PIT | 17% | +479 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE vs PIT | 17% | +495 |
| Roman Wilson | PIT @ CLE | 16% | +538 |
| Raheim Sanders | CLE vs PIT | 13% | +652 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | CLE vs PIT | 13% | +696 |
| Darnell Washington | PIT @ CLE | 12% | +761 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT @ CLE | 10% | +935 |
These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.
Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.