Auto-updating · rebuilt by CI
Week 1 · 2026 season · Wed 09 Sep – Mon 14 Sep · 16 games
Last updated 16 Aug 2026, 14:54 UTC · Projecting weeks 1–4Week 1 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed
| Player | Matchup | Market | Bet | Book | Book odds | Our fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Parkinson | LA vs SF | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +320 | +170* | +13.2 |
| Kayshon Boutte | NE vs SEA | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +550 | +287* | +10.5 |
| Christian Kirk | SF vs LA | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +550 | +368* | +6.0 |
| Brock Purdy | SF vs LA | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +550 | +368* | +6.0 |
| Tory Horton | SEA vs NE | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +500 | +362* | +5.0 |
| Mack Hollins | NE vs SEA | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +600 | +462* | +3.5 |
| Romeo Doubs | NE vs SEA | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +290 | +261* | +2.1 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF vs LA | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +900 | +736* | +2.0 |
| Davis Allen | LA vs SF | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +700 | +628* | +1.2 |
| Drake Maye | NE vs SEA | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +290 | +278* | +0.8 |
| Davante Adams | LA vs SF | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +125 | +122* | +0.6 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE vs SEA | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +160 | +157* | +0.5 |
| AJ Barner | SEA vs NE | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +240 | +236* | +0.4 |
| Tyler Higbee | LA vs SF | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +370 | +368* | +0.1 |
| Mike Evans | SF vs LA | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +170 | +170* | +0.0 |
Append-only store · every snapshot retained
| Market | Rows | Players | Books |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 45 | 45 | 1 |
All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds
Week 1 · 2026 season · Wed 09 Sep – Mon 14 Sep · 16 games
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | LA vs SF | 290.1 |
| Jared Goff | DET vs NO | 279.3 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN vs TB | 260.1 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL @ NYG | 258.1 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI @ CAR | 253.0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX vs CLE | 252.5 |
| Tyler Shough | NO @ DET | 245.0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT vs ATL | 239.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC vs DEN | 237.9 |
| Brock Purdy | SF @ LA | 236.6 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA vs NE | 230.9 |
| Daniel Jones | IND vs BAL | 229.2 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | LA vs SF | 2.27 |
| Jared Goff | DET vs NO | 2.13 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN vs TB | 2.02 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX vs CLE | 1.80 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL @ NYG | 1.74 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI @ CAR | 1.59 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT vs ATL | 1.53 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC vs ARI | 1.51 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC vs DEN | 1.49 |
| Brock Purdy | SF @ LA | 1.49 |
| Kyler Murray | MIN vs GB | 1.48 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA vs NE | 1.44 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | BAL @ IND | 91.3 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL @ PIT | 85.1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND vs BAL | 82.2 |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI vs WAS | 74.8 |
| De'Von Achane | MIA @ LV | 74.5 |
| Tony Pollard | TEN vs NYJ | 70.2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF @ LA | 69.6 |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV vs MIA | 67.7 |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN @ KC | 67.5 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL @ NYG | 66.5 |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC vs DEN | 66.1 |
| James Cook | BUF @ HOU | 65.0 |
| Kyren Williams | LA vs SF | 64.7 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT vs ATL | 62.2 |
| Chase Brown | CIN vs TB | 61.9 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LA vs SF | 88.4 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA vs NE | 87.3 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN vs TB | 80.8 |
| Malik Nabers | NYG vs DAL | 77.2 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET vs NO | 76.9 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL @ NYG | 73.0 |
| Chris Olave | NO @ DET | 70.2 |
| George Pickens | DAL @ NYG | 69.7 |
| Drake London | ATL @ PIT | 67.2 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL @ IND | 66.3 |
| Jameson Williams | DET vs NO | 65.8 |
| A.J. Brown | NE @ SEA | 65.7 |
| Rashee Rice | KC vs DEN | 65.1 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ @ TEN | 65.1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN @ KC | 64.9 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LA vs SF | 7.23 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN vs TB | 6.74 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA vs NE | 6.47 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET vs NO | 6.35 |
| Rashee Rice | KC vs DEN | 6.13 |
| Malik Nabers | NYG vs DAL | 5.94 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL @ NYG | 5.45 |
| George Kittle | SF @ LA | 5.27 |
| Chris Olave | NO @ DET | 5.26 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL @ PIT | 5.23 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ @ TEN | 5.18 |
| George Pickens | DAL @ NYG | 5.18 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN vs NYJ | 5.15 |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL @ PIT | 5.05 |
| A.J. Brown | NE @ SEA | 5.03 |
| Player | Matchup | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET vs NO | 73% | -264 |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI vs WAS | 59% | -144 |
| Chase Brown | CIN vs TB | 57% | -132 |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC vs ARI | 57% | -130 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND vs BAL | 55% | -122 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF @ LA | 55% | -122 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL @ NYG | 55% | -122 |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI @ CAR | 55% | -122 |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG vs DAL | 55% | -122 |
| Bucky Irving | TB @ CIN | 55% | -122 |
| Kyren Williams | LA vs SF | 55% | -122 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL @ IND | 55% | -122 |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV vs MIA | 49% | +106 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN vs TB | 49% | +106 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX vs CLE | 49% | +106 |
These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.
Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.