Auto-updating · rebuilt by CI
Week 6 · 2026 season · Thu 15 Oct – Mon 19 Oct · 14 games
Last updated 14 Oct 2026, 18:22 UTCWeek 6 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed
| Player | Matchup | Market | Bet | Book | Book odds | Our fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | BUF vs LV | Rush + rec yds | Under 105.5 | bovada | -120 | +952 | +41.5 |
| James Cook | BUF vs LV | Rush + rec yds | Under 105.5 | draftkings | -115 | +952 | +40.9 |
| James Cook | BUF vs LV | Rush + rec yds | Under 105.5 | betrivers | -117 | +952 | +40.8 |
| James Cook | BUF vs LV | Rush + rec yds | Under 104.5 | fanduel | -114 | +904 | +40.0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs HOU | Rush + rec yds | Under 76.5 | betmgm | -115 | +666 | +36.9 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs HOU | Rush + rec yds | Under 75.5 | fanduel | -114 | +627 | +36.2 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs HOU | Rush + rec yds | Under 75.5 | draftkings | -111 | +627 | +35.8 |
| Germie Bernard | PIT vs TB | Receiving yds | Under 40.5 | draftkings | -110 | +619 | +35.7 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs HOU | Rush + rec yds | Under 75.5 | bovada | -110 | +627 | +35.2 |
| Tory Horton | SEA vs DEN | Receiving yds | Over 4.5 | draftkings | -109 | -522 | +34.6 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs HOU | Rush + rec yds | Under 73.5 | betrivers | -114 | +558 | +34.5 |
| Tory Horton | SEA vs DEN | Receiving yds | Over 4.5 | betonlineag | -112 | -522 | +34.2 |
| Tory Horton | SEA vs DEN | Receiving yds | Over 4.5 | betmgm | -115 | -522 | +33.9 |
| Kyren Williams | LA vs ARI | Rush + rec yds | Under 98.5 | draftkings | -111 | +531 | +33.7 |
| Germie Bernard | PIT vs TB | Receiving yds | Under 38.5 | fanduel | -114 | +510 | +33.6 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE vs NYJ | Rushing yds | Under 71.5 | bovada | -115 | +501 | +33.4 |
| Kyren Williams | LA vs ARI | Rush + rec yds | Under 96.5 | betrivers | -117 | +484 | +33.2 |
| Kyren Williams | LA vs ARI | Rush + rec yds | Under 98.5 | bovada | -110 | +531 | +33.1 |
| Kyren Williams | LA vs ARI | Rush + rec yds | Under 96.5 | fanduel | -115 | +484 | +33.1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE vs NYJ | Rushing yds | Under 71.5 | draftkings | -110 | +501 | +33.0 |
| Tory Horton | SEA vs DEN | Receiving yds | Over 5.5 | fanduel | -114 | -481 | +32.8 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE vs NYJ | Rushing yds | Under 70.5 | betonlineag | -114 | +471 | +32.5 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE vs NYJ | Rushing yds | Under 70.5 | betrivers | -115 | +471 | +32.5 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE vs NYJ | Rushing yds | Under 70.5 | fanduel | -114 | +471 | +32.5 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND vs TEN | Rush + rec yds | Under 112.5 | bovada | -115 | +465 | +32.3 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND vs TEN | Rush + rec yds | Under 112.5 | draftkings | -112 | +465 | +32.1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE vs NYJ | Rush + rec yds | Under 96.5 | bovada | -115 | +454 | +31.9 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND vs TEN | Rush + rec yds | Under 111.5 | fanduel | -114 | +446 | +31.7 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE vs NYJ | Rush + rec yds | Under 96.5 | draftkings | -111 | +454 | +31.6 |
| Woody Marks | HOU vs JAX | Rush + rec yds | Under 66.5 | bovada | -115 | +425 | +31.0 |
| Woody Marks | HOU vs JAX | Rush + rec yds | Under 66.5 | draftkings | -112 | +425 | +30.8 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND vs TEN | Rush + rec yds | Under 116.5 | betrivers | +100 | +549 | +30.5 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE vs NYJ | Rush + rec yds | Under 94.5 | betrivers | -114 | +415 | +30.3 |
| Woody Marks | HOU vs JAX | Rush + rec yds | Under 66.5 | betmgm | -111 | +425 | +30.2 |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA vs DEN | Rush + rec yds | Under 80.5 | fanduel | -114 | +404 | +30.1 |
| Tyjae Spears | TEN vs IND | Rush + rec yds | Over 33.5 | betrivers | +110 | -279 | +30.1 |
| Woody Marks | HOU vs JAX | Rush + rec yds | Under 65.5 | fanduel | -114 | +402 | +30.1 |
| RJ Harvey | DEN vs SEA | Rush + rec yds | Over 37.5 | betmgm | -115 | -393 | +29.7 |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA vs DEN | Rush + rec yds | Under 79.5 | betrivers | -117 | +384 | +29.6 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | GB vs DAL | Rushing yds | Under 40.5 | betonlineag | -114 | +391 | +29.6 |
Append-only store · every snapshot retained
| Market | Rows | Players | Books |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 19,227 | 581 | 6 |
| Receiving yds | 12,459 | 250 | 7 |
| Receptions | 11,256 | 252 | 7 |
| Rushing yds | 6,120 | 118 | 7 |
| Passing yds | 2,757 | 41 | 7 |
| Passing TDs | 2,711 | 41 | 7 |
| Rush + rec yds | 1,408 | 59 | 6 |
All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | LA vs ARI | 290.6 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL @ GB | 269.6 |
| Tyler Shough | NO @ NYG | 259.2 |
| Jordan Love | GB vs DAL | 250.6 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI @ ATL | 250.3 |
| Kirk Cousins | LV vs BUF | 246.0 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU @ JAX | 245.0 |
| Brock Purdy | SF vs WAS | 242.1 |
| Bryce Young | CAR @ PHI | 242.0 |
| Josh Allen | BUF @ LV | 235.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC vs LAC | 233.2 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI @ LA | 232.2 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | LA vs ARI | 2.40 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL @ GB | 1.80 |
| Brock Purdy | SF vs WAS | 1.75 |
| Tyler Shough | NO @ NYG | 1.74 |
| Jordan Love | GB vs DAL | 1.69 |
| Josh Allen | BUF @ LV | 1.68 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI @ ATL | 1.63 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC vs LAC | 1.54 |
| Kirk Cousins | LV vs BUF | 1.54 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX vs HOU | 1.51 |
| Bryce Young | CAR @ PHI | 1.43 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI @ LA | 1.42 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | ATL vs CHI | 90.6 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL @ CLE | 90.3 |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC vs LAC | 89.2 |
| James Cook | BUF @ LV | 85.7 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND vs TEN | 82.8 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT @ TB | 69.9 |
| Kyren Williams | LA vs ARI | 69.4 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL @ GB | 64.2 |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI vs CAR | 64.0 |
| Breece Hall | NYJ @ NE | 61.6 |
| Bucky Irving | TB vs PIT | 61.5 |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI @ ATL | 60.6 |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV vs BUF | 60.5 |
| Tony Pollard | TEN @ IND | 60.3 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF vs WAS | 57.3 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LA vs ARI | 90.3 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA @ DEN | 88.9 |
| Chris Olave | NO @ NYG | 87.6 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL @ GB | 83.5 |
| Michael Wilson | ARI @ LA | 74.1 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL @ CLE | 72.5 |
| Drake London | ATL vs CHI | 70.3 |
| Carnell Tate | TEN @ IND | 67.7 |
| A.J. Brown | NE vs NYJ | 67.4 |
| Davante Adams | LA vs ARI | 66.4 |
| Trey McBride | ARI @ LA | 66.1 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ @ NE | 65.4 |
| Denzel Boston | CLE vs BAL | 64.8 |
| Nico Collins | HOU @ JAX | 64.0 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI vs CAR | 63.1 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LA vs ARI | 6.87 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA @ DEN | 6.57 |
| Trey McBride | ARI @ LA | 6.52 |
| Chris Olave | NO @ NYG | 6.52 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL @ GB | 6.49 |
| Michael Wilson | ARI @ LA | 5.74 |
| Brock Bowers | LV vs BUF | 5.30 |
| Drake London | ATL vs CHI | 5.29 |
| Rashee Rice | KC vs LAC | 5.22 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL @ CLE | 5.17 |
| Carnell Tate | TEN @ IND | 5.09 |
| A.J. Brown | NE vs NYJ | 5.01 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI vs CAR | 4.97 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ @ NE | 4.90 |
| Nico Collins | HOU @ JAX | 4.72 |
| Player | Matchup | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | SF vs WAS | 65% | -184 |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV vs BUF | 62% | -167 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL vs CHI | 62% | -162 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL @ GB | 61% | -156 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND vs TEN | 61% | -154 |
| Kyren Williams | LA vs ARI | 60% | -153 |
| James Cook | BUF @ LV | 58% | -137 |
| Puka Nacua | LA vs ARI | 56% | -129 |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI @ ATL | 56% | -126 |
| Josh Allen | BUF @ LV | 56% | -125 |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC vs LAC | 52% | -107 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL @ CLE | 50% | -100 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE vs NYJ | 47% | +111 |
| Davante Adams | LA vs ARI | 47% | +113 |
| Josh Jacobs | GB vs DAL | 45% | +121 |
These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.
Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.