NFL Props — Model Board

Edges

Week 1 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed

Player	Matchup	Market	Bet	Book	Book odds	Our fair odds	Edge
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	bovada	+2200	-123*	+50.8
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+2200	-123*	+50.8
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betrivers	+1500	-123*	+48.9
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rush + rec yds	Under 65.5	draftkings	-116	+4224	+48.3
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	fanduel	+1300	-123*	+48.0
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rush + rec yds	Under 64.5	betrivers	-115	+3806	+47.4
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rush + rec yds	Under 63.5	betmgm	-115	+3433	+47.2
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 50.5	fanduel	-114	+1743	+44.6
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 49.5	betrivers	-118	+1555	+44.5
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 49.5	draftkings	-114	+1555	+44.4
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 49.5	betonlineag	-114	+1555	+44.0
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 49.5	betmgm	-115	+1555	+44.0
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 49.5	bovada	-115	+1555	+44.0
Derrick Henry	BAL vs IND	Rush + rec yds	Under 89.5	draftkings	-115	+1300	+43.3
Derrick Henry	BAL vs IND	Rush + rec yds	Under 87.5	betrivers	-115	+1144	+42.0
James Cook	BUF vs HOU	Rush + rec yds	Under 94.5	draftkings	-112	+1100	+41.6
David Montgomery	HOU vs BUF	Rush + rec yds	Under 68.5	betmgm	-115	+1027	+41.1
David Montgomery	HOU vs BUF	Rush + rec yds	Under 67.5	draftkings	-114	+956	+40.7
James Cook	BUF vs HOU	Rush + rec yds	Under 90.5	betmgm	-115	+871	+39.7
David Montgomery	HOU vs BUF	Rush + rec yds	Under 64.5	betrivers	-115	+774	+38.6
Malik Willis	MIA vs LV	Rushing yds	Under 38.5	fanduel	-114	+621	+36.1
Malik Willis	MIA vs LV	Rushing yds	Under 38.5	betrivers	-113	+621	+35.7
Malik Willis	MIA vs LV	Rushing yds	Under 38.5	betonlineag	-111	+621	+35.6
Malik Willis	MIA vs LV	Rushing yds	Under 38.5	draftkings	-109	+621	+35.5
Malik Willis	MIA vs LV	Rushing yds	Under 38.5	bovada	-110	+621	+35.1
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	Rushing yds	Over 2.5	fanduel	+102	-371	+32.2
Devin Singletary	NYG vs DAL	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betrivers	+1300	+156*	+31.9
David Montgomery	HOU vs BUF	Rushing yds	Under 55.5	betmgm	-120	+426	+31.9
Justice Hill	BAL vs IND	Rush + rec yds	Over 24.5	betrivers	-113	-436	+31.8
Justice Hill	BAL vs IND	Rush + rec yds	Over 23.5	draftkings	-114	-457	+31.8
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs WAS	Rush + rec yds	Under 98.5	draftkings	-114	+436	+31.5
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs WAS	Rush + rec yds	Under 98.5	betmgm	-115	+436	+31.3
Demarcus Robinson	SF vs LA	Receiving yds	Over 9.5	betrivers	-117	-442	+31.3
Jared Goff	DET vs NO	Rushing yds	Over 0.5	fanduel	+142	-231	+31.0
Devin Singletary	NYG vs DAL	Anytime TD	To score a TD	fanduel	+1100	+156*	+30.7
Malik Willis	MIA vs LV	Passing yds	Under 184.5	fanduel	-114	+413	+30.5
Tony Pollard	TEN vs NYJ	Rush + rec yds	Under 69.5	betrivers	-117	+400	+30.3
David Montgomery	HOU vs BUF	Rushing yds	Under 54.5	betonlineag	-115	+397	+30.2
Malik Willis	MIA vs LV	Passing yds	Under 181.5	betonlineag	-115	+392	+30.0
Malik Willis	MIA vs LV	Passing yds	Under 181.5	draftkings	-113	+392	+29.9

Line capture

Append-only store · every snapshot retained

23,213line observations

8snapshots

513players

824lines that moved

Market	Rows	Players	Books
Anytime TD	8,146	513	6
Receiving yds	5,184	165	6
Receptions	4,677	162	6
Rushing yds	2,518	80	6
Passing yds	1,128	32	6
Passing TDs	1,096	32	6
Rush + rec yds	464	39	3

Projections

All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds

Week 1 · 2026 season · Wed 09 Sep – Mon 14 Sep · 16 games

Passing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs SF	289.6
Jared Goff	DET vs NO	279.2
Joe Burrow	CIN vs TB	259.5
Dak Prescott	DAL @ NYG	258.2
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs CLE	252.6
Caleb Williams	CHI @ CAR	252.5
Tyler Shough	NO @ DET	244.9
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs ATL	240.7
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs DEN	238.6
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ LAC	237.8
Brock Purdy	SF @ LA	236.5
Sam Darnold	SEA vs NE	231.4

Passing TDs

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs SF	2.26
Jared Goff	DET vs NO	2.12
Joe Burrow	CIN vs TB	1.99
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs CLE	1.84
Dak Prescott	DAL @ NYG	1.75
Caleb Williams	CHI @ CAR	1.61
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs ATL	1.54
Justin Herbert	LAC vs ARI	1.52
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs DEN	1.51
Brock Purdy	SF @ LA	1.50
Kyler Murray	MIN vs GB	1.50
Carson Wentz	MIN vs GB	1.45

Rushing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL @ IND	90.6
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ PIT	86.2
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs BAL	81.7
De'Von Achane	MIA @ LV	74.5
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs WAS	74.5
Tony Pollard	TEN vs NYJ	69.8
Christian McCaffrey	SF @ LA	69.6
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs MIA	67.7
J.K. Dobbins	DEN @ KC	66.5
Javonte Williams	DAL @ NYG	65.8
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs DEN	65.8
James Cook	BUF @ HOU	64.6
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	64.2
Jaylen Warren	PIT vs ATL	62.0
Chase Brown	CIN vs TB	61.7

Receiving yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	88.4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs NE	87.2
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs TB	79.9
Malik Nabers	NYG vs DAL	76.9
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NO	76.4
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ NYG	73.9
George Pickens	DAL @ NYG	69.9
Chris Olave	NO @ DET	68.9
Drake London	ATL @ PIT	66.6
A.J. Brown	NE @ SEA	65.5
Jameson Williams	DET vs NO	65.5
Zay Flowers	BAL @ IND	65.3
Trey McBride	ARI @ LAC	65.0
Rashee Rice	KC vs DEN	64.9
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ TEN	64.8

Receptions

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	7.18
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs TB	6.69
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs NE	6.46
Trey McBride	ARI @ LAC	6.42
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NO	6.32
Rashee Rice	KC vs DEN	6.12
Malik Nabers	NYG vs DAL	5.88
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ NYG	5.48
George Kittle	SF @ LA	5.24
Chris Olave	NO @ DET	5.21
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ PIT	5.20
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ TEN	5.18
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs NYJ	5.14
George Pickens	DAL @ NYG	5.13
Kyle Pitts	ATL @ PIT	5.04

Anytime TD

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NO	60%	-149
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs ARI	57%	-130
Chase Brown	CIN vs TB	55%	-123
Javonte Williams	DAL @ NYG	52%	-108
Christian McCaffrey	SF @ LA	52%	-107
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	51%	-105
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs WAS	51%	-104
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs TB	51%	-104
D'Andre Swift	CHI @ CAR	50%	+100
Cam Skattebo	NYG vs DAL	50%	+100
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs BAL	49%	+104
Derrick Henry	BAL @ IND	48%	+110
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs MIA	46%	+116
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	45%	+122
Josh Allen	BUF @ HOU	45%	+124

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs NYG	288.8
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	277.4
Dak Prescott	DAL vs WAS	263.9
Caleb Williams	CHI vs MIN	256.2
Joe Burrow	CIN @ HOU	254.1
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ DEN	251.1
Tyler Shough	NO @ BAL	243.7
Jacoby Brissett	ARI vs SEA	241.2
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs IND	239.8
Brock Purdy	SF vs MIA	238.0
Aaron Rodgers	PIT @ NE	237.7
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	232.4

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs NYG	2.39
Dak Prescott	DAL vs WAS	1.90
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	1.88
Brock Purdy	SF vs MIA	1.80
Joe Burrow	CIN @ HOU	1.73
Caleb Williams	CHI vs MIN	1.64
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs IND	1.63
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ DEN	1.60
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	1.57
Drake Maye	NE vs PIT	1.53
Bo Nix	DEN vs JAX	1.52
Sam Darnold	SEA @ ARI	1.51

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL vs NO	91.5
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	87.2
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ KC	81.0
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ TEN	74.2
De'Von Achane	MIA @ SF	73.0
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	72.4
Tony Pollard	TEN vs PHI	68.5
J.K. Dobbins	DEN vs JAX	67.8
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs IND	66.4
Javonte Williams	DAL vs WAS	66.1
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ LAC	65.2
Kyren Williams	LA vs NYG	65.2
James Cook	BUF vs DET	64.9
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	61.4
Bucky Irving	TB vs CLE	61.3

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	89.1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	87.8
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ HOU	78.1
Malik Nabers	NYG @ LA	75.9
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	75.3
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs WAS	74.9
George Pickens	DAL vs WAS	70.9
Chris Olave	NO @ BAL	68.3
Drake London	ATL vs CAR	67.9
A.J. Brown	NE vs PIT	66.6
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	66.1
Zay Flowers	BAL vs NO	66.0
Jaylen Waddle	DEN vs JAX	65.8
Garrett Wilson	NYJ vs GB	65.0
Trey McBride	ARI vs SEA	64.7

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	7.19
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ HOU	6.60
Trey McBride	ARI vs SEA	6.45
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	6.43
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	6.28
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	6.15
Malik Nabers	NYG @ LA	5.83
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs WAS	5.55
George Kittle	SF vs MIA	5.29
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	5.27
Garrett Wilson	NYJ vs GB	5.24
George Pickens	DAL vs WAS	5.20
Chris Olave	NO @ BAL	5.19
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs PHI	5.16
Kyle Pitts	ATL vs CAR	5.10

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	62%	-160
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	57%	-134
Javonte Williams	DAL vs WAS	55%	-122
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ BUF	55%	-120
Kyren Williams	LA vs NYG	52%	-108
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	52%	-107
James Cook	BUF vs DET	51%	-106
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ KC	51%	-102
Cam Skattebo	NYG @ LA	50%	-102
Derrick Henry	BAL vs NO	50%	+101
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	49%	+104
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs IND	48%	+107
Chase Brown	CIN @ HOU	48%	+108
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	47%	+111
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	47%	+111

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ DEN	283.8
Jared Goff	DET vs NYJ	277.1
Dak Prescott	DAL vs BAL	265.1
Caleb Williams	CHI vs PHI	257.0
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs NE	255.8
Joe Burrow	CIN @ PIT	253.5
Tyler Shough	NO vs LV	244.8
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs CIN	243.1
Brock Purdy	SF vs ARI	237.9
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ SF	237.6
Bo Nix	DEN vs LA	233.8
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ MIA	233.7

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ DEN	2.10
Jared Goff	DET vs NYJ	2.10
Brock Purdy	SF vs ARI	1.82
Joe Burrow	CIN @ PIT	1.81
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs NE	1.78
Dak Prescott	DAL vs BAL	1.75
Caleb Williams	CHI vs PHI	1.62
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ MIA	1.55
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs CIN	1.52
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	1.51
Tyler Shough	NO vs LV	1.49
Bo Nix	DEN vs LA	1.44

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL @ DAL	90.3
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ GB	85.3
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs HOU	82.1
De'Von Achane	MIA vs KC	73.8
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ CHI	73.0
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs ARI	72.6
Tony Pollard	TEN @ NYG	68.7
J.K. Dobbins	DEN vs LA	66.6
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ MIA	66.5
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ NO	66.2
James Cook	BUF vs LAC	65.0
Javonte Williams	DAL vs BAL	64.8
Kyren Williams	LA @ DEN	64.1
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NYJ	62.1
Chase Brown	CIN @ PIT	61.3

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ DEN	87.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ WAS	87.3
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ PIT	78.6
Malik Nabers	NYG vs TEN	76.9
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	76.0
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs BAL	74.0
George Pickens	DAL vs BAL	70.0
Chris Olave	NO vs LV	69.3
Drake London	ATL @ GB	66.8
Zay Flowers	BAL @ DAL	65.9
A.J. Brown	NE @ JAX	65.9
Rashee Rice	KC @ MIA	65.5
Jaylen Waddle	DEN vs LA	65.3
Jameson Williams	DET vs NYJ	65.1
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ DET	64.8

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ DEN	7.11
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ PIT	6.61
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ WAS	6.43
Trey McBride	ARI @ SF	6.41
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	6.29
Rashee Rice	KC @ MIA	6.08
Malik Nabers	NYG vs TEN	5.86
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs BAL	5.54
George Kittle	SF vs ARI	5.29
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ GB	5.23
Chris Olave	NO vs LV	5.22
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ DET	5.21
George Pickens	DAL vs BAL	5.20
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ NYG	5.13
Kyle Pitts	ATL @ GB	5.06

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs ARI	64%	-177
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NYJ	56%	-128
Chase Brown	CIN @ PIT	53%	-115
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs HOU	51%	-105
Cam Skattebo	NYG vs TEN	50%	-101
James Cook	BUF vs LAC	50%	+102
Josh Jacobs	GB vs ATL	49%	+104
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ MIA	49%	+104
Kyren Williams	LA @ DEN	49%	+106
Derrick Henry	BAL @ DAL	48%	+106
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs PHI	48%	+107
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	48%	+109
Javonte Williams	DAL vs BAL	48%	+110
Zach Charbonnet	SEA @ WAS	45%	+120
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	44%	+125

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ PHI	284.9
Jared Goff	DET @ CAR	274.3
Joe Burrow	CIN vs JAX	260.1
Dak Prescott	DAL @ HOU	258.7
Caleb Williams	CHI vs NYJ	255.4
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ CIN	254.4
Tyler Shough	NO vs ATL	246.3
Brock Purdy	SF vs DEN	239.3
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ NYG	236.5
Aaron Rodgers	PIT @ CLE	235.2
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ LV	233.6
Sam Darnold	SEA vs LAC	231.9

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ PHI	2.11
Joe Burrow	CIN vs JAX	1.99
Jared Goff	DET @ CAR	1.92
Caleb Williams	CHI vs NYJ	1.74
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ CIN	1.74
Brock Purdy	SF vs DEN	1.63
Dak Prescott	DAL @ HOU	1.62
Kyler Murray	MIN vs MIA	1.56
Josh Allen	BUF vs NE	1.52
Tyler Shough	NO vs ATL	1.51
Carson Wentz	MIN vs MIA	1.51
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ LV	1.50

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	91.7
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ NO	86.3
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ WAS	81.9
De'Von Achane	MIA @ MIN	73.7
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs LA	73.0
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs DEN	70.9
Tony Pollard	TEN @ BAL	67.6
J.K. Dobbins	DEN @ SF	66.6
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ LV	66.1
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs KC	65.9
James Cook	BUF vs NE	64.9
Javonte Williams	DAL @ HOU	64.7
Kyren Williams	LA @ PHI	63.7
Jaylen Warren	PIT @ CLE	61.8
Chase Brown	CIN vs JAX	61.5

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ PHI	87.7
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs LAC	87.4
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	80.0
Malik Nabers	NYG vs ARI	77.6
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ CAR	75.2
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ HOU	73.0
Chris Olave	NO vs ATL	69.7
George Pickens	DAL @ HOU	69.0
Drake London	ATL @ NO	67.3
A.J. Brown	NE @ BUF	66.5
Zay Flowers	BAL vs TEN	66.3
Jaylen Waddle	DEN @ SF	65.3
Rashee Rice	KC @ LV	65.0
Trey McBride	ARI @ NYG	65.0
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ CHI	64.9

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ PHI	7.13
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	6.70
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs LAC	6.47
Trey McBride	ARI @ NYG	6.41
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ CAR	6.25
Rashee Rice	KC @ LV	6.07
Malik Nabers	NYG vs ARI	5.87
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ HOU	5.46
George Kittle	SF vs DEN	5.28
Chris Olave	NO vs ATL	5.24
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ NO	5.23
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ CHI	5.22
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ BAL	5.14
George Pickens	DAL @ HOU	5.12
Kyle Pitts	ATL @ NO	5.06

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs DEN	63%	-173
Cam Skattebo	NYG vs ARI	59%	-142
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ CAR	57%	-132
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ WAS	56%	-127
Chase Brown	CIN vs JAX	55%	-120
Kyren Williams	LA @ PHI	51%	-104
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs NYJ	51%	-103
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	50%	+101
Travis Etienne	NO vs ATL	50%	+101
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	50%	+102
James Cook	BUF vs NE	50%	+102
Josh Allen	BUF vs NE	48%	+109
Jaxson Dart	NYG vs ARI	47%	+113
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE @ BUF	45%	+121
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ LV	44%	+125

Read this before acting on anything above

These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.

Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.