Auto-updating · rebuilt by CI
Week 1 · 2026 season · Wed 09 Sep – Mon 14 Sep · 16 games
Last updated 16 Aug 2026, 18:09 UTC · Projecting weeks 1–4Week 1 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed
| Player | Matchup | Market | Bet | Book | Book odds | Our fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Parkinson | LA vs SF | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +320 | +192* | +10.5 |
| Kayshon Boutte | NE vs SEA | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +550 | +357* | +6.5 |
| Tory Horton | SEA vs NE | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +500 | +332* | +6.5 |
| Mack Hollins | NE vs SEA | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +600 | +386* | +6.3 |
| Davis Allen | LA vs SF | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +700 | +447* | +5.8 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF vs LA | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +900 | +619* | +3.9 |
| Christian Kirk | SF vs LA | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +550 | +419* | +3.9 |
| Brock Purdy | SF vs LA | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +550 | +448* | +2.9 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA vs SF | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +1600 | +1068* | +2.7 |
| Tyler Higbee | LA vs SF | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +370 | +324* | +2.3 |
| Kyle Williams | NE vs SEA | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +750 | +630* | +1.9 |
| Demarcus Robinson | SF vs LA | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +600 | +522* | +1.8 |
| Xavier Smith | LA vs SF | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +700 | +697* | +0.1 |
Append-only store · every snapshot retained
| Market | Rows | Players | Books |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 45 | 45 | 1 |
All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds
Week 1 · 2026 season · Wed 09 Sep – Mon 14 Sep · 16 games
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | LA vs SF | 289.6 |
| Jared Goff | DET vs NO | 278.4 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN vs TB | 259.7 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL @ NYG | 257.6 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX vs CLE | 253.1 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI @ CAR | 253.0 |
| Tyler Shough | NO @ DET | 244.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT vs ATL | 239.6 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC vs DEN | 238.0 |
| Brock Purdy | SF @ LA | 236.6 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA vs NE | 231.1 |
| Drake Maye | NE @ SEA | 229.2 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | LA vs SF | 2.25 |
| Jared Goff | DET vs NO | 2.11 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN vs TB | 2.02 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX vs CLE | 1.81 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL @ NYG | 1.73 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI @ CAR | 1.59 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT vs ATL | 1.53 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC vs ARI | 1.52 |
| Brock Purdy | SF @ LA | 1.49 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC vs DEN | 1.49 |
| Kyler Murray | MIN vs GB | 1.48 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA vs NE | 1.43 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | BAL @ IND | 91.1 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL @ PIT | 86.3 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND vs BAL | 82.1 |
| De'Von Achane | MIA @ LV | 74.6 |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI vs WAS | 74.6 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF @ LA | 70.3 |
| Tony Pollard | TEN vs NYJ | 70.0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV vs MIA | 67.9 |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN @ KC | 66.8 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL @ NYG | 66.2 |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC vs DEN | 65.9 |
| James Cook | BUF @ HOU | 64.9 |
| Kyren Williams | LA vs SF | 64.6 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT vs ATL | 62.3 |
| Chase Brown | CIN vs TB | 62.2 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LA vs SF | 88.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA vs NE | 87.4 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN vs TB | 80.5 |
| Malik Nabers | NYG vs DAL | 77.6 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET vs NO | 76.4 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL @ NYG | 72.6 |
| George Pickens | DAL @ NYG | 70.1 |
| Chris Olave | NO @ DET | 69.6 |
| Drake London | ATL @ PIT | 66.9 |
| A.J. Brown | NE @ SEA | 66.0 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL @ IND | 65.8 |
| Jameson Williams | DET vs NO | 65.7 |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN @ KC | 65.1 |
| Rashee Rice | KC vs DEN | 65.0 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ @ TEN | 64.8 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LA vs SF | 7.21 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN vs TB | 6.74 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA vs NE | 6.48 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET vs NO | 6.34 |
| Rashee Rice | KC vs DEN | 6.14 |
| Malik Nabers | NYG vs DAL | 5.94 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL @ NYG | 5.46 |
| George Kittle | SF @ LA | 5.27 |
| Chris Olave | NO @ DET | 5.27 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL @ PIT | 5.23 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ @ TEN | 5.20 |
| George Pickens | DAL @ NYG | 5.17 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN vs NYJ | 5.16 |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL @ PIT | 5.07 |
| Drake London | ATL @ PIT | 5.04 |
| Player | Matchup | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | SF @ LA | 59% | -142 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET vs NO | 58% | -138 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND vs BAL | 57% | -134 |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC vs ARI | 53% | -114 |
| Kyren Williams | LA vs SF | 53% | -111 |
| Chase Brown | CIN vs TB | 52% | -110 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL @ IND | 51% | -106 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL @ NYG | 51% | -104 |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI @ CAR | 50% | +102 |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI vs WAS | 49% | +105 |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG vs DAL | 48% | +108 |
| Zach Charbonnet | SEA vs NE | 48% | +110 |
| Josh Allen | BUF @ HOU | 47% | +114 |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC vs DEN | 46% | +117 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN vs TB | 45% | +121 |
These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.
Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.