NFL Props — Model Board

Edges

Week 1 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed

Player	Matchup	Market	Bet	Book	Book odds	Our fair odds	Edge
Colby Parkinson	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+320	+170*	+13.2
Kayshon Boutte	NE vs SEA	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+550	+287*	+10.5
Christian Kirk	SF vs LA	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+550	+368*	+6.0
Brock Purdy	SF vs LA	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+550	+368*	+6.0
Tory Horton	SEA vs NE	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+500	+362*	+5.0
Mack Hollins	NE vs SEA	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+600	+462*	+3.5
Romeo Doubs	NE vs SEA	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+290	+261*	+2.1
Kyle Juszczyk	SF vs LA	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+900	+736*	+2.0
Davis Allen	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+700	+628*	+1.2
Drake Maye	NE vs SEA	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+290	+278*	+0.8
Davante Adams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+125	+122*	+0.6
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE vs SEA	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+160	+157*	+0.5
AJ Barner	SEA vs NE	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+240	+236*	+0.4
Tyler Higbee	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+370	+368*	+0.1
Mike Evans	SF vs LA	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+170	+170*	+0.0

Line capture

Append-only store · every snapshot retained

45line observations

1snapshots

45players

0lines that moved

Market	Rows	Players	Books
Anytime TD	45	45	1

Projections

All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds

Week 1 · 2026 season · Wed 09 Sep – Mon 14 Sep · 16 games

Passing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs SF	290.1
Jared Goff	DET vs NO	279.3
Joe Burrow	CIN vs TB	260.1
Dak Prescott	DAL @ NYG	258.1
Caleb Williams	CHI @ CAR	253.0
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs CLE	252.5
Tyler Shough	NO @ DET	245.0
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs ATL	239.7
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs DEN	237.9
Brock Purdy	SF @ LA	236.6
Sam Darnold	SEA vs NE	230.9
Daniel Jones	IND vs BAL	229.2

Passing TDs

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs SF	2.27
Jared Goff	DET vs NO	2.13
Joe Burrow	CIN vs TB	2.02
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs CLE	1.80
Dak Prescott	DAL @ NYG	1.74
Caleb Williams	CHI @ CAR	1.59
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs ATL	1.53
Justin Herbert	LAC vs ARI	1.51
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs DEN	1.49
Brock Purdy	SF @ LA	1.49
Kyler Murray	MIN vs GB	1.48
Sam Darnold	SEA vs NE	1.44

Rushing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL @ IND	91.3
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ PIT	85.1
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs BAL	82.2
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs WAS	74.8
De'Von Achane	MIA @ LV	74.5
Tony Pollard	TEN vs NYJ	70.2
Christian McCaffrey	SF @ LA	69.6
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs MIA	67.7
J.K. Dobbins	DEN @ KC	67.5
Javonte Williams	DAL @ NYG	66.5
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs DEN	66.1
James Cook	BUF @ HOU	65.0
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	64.7
Jaylen Warren	PIT vs ATL	62.2
Chase Brown	CIN vs TB	61.9

Receiving yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	88.4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs NE	87.3
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs TB	80.8
Malik Nabers	NYG vs DAL	77.2
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NO	76.9
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ NYG	73.0
Chris Olave	NO @ DET	70.2
George Pickens	DAL @ NYG	69.7
Drake London	ATL @ PIT	67.2
Zay Flowers	BAL @ IND	66.3
Jameson Williams	DET vs NO	65.8
A.J. Brown	NE @ SEA	65.7
Rashee Rice	KC vs DEN	65.1
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ TEN	65.1
Jaylen Waddle	DEN @ KC	64.9

Receptions

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	7.23
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs TB	6.74
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs NE	6.47
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NO	6.35
Rashee Rice	KC vs DEN	6.13
Malik Nabers	NYG vs DAL	5.94
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ NYG	5.45
George Kittle	SF @ LA	5.27
Chris Olave	NO @ DET	5.26
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ PIT	5.23
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ TEN	5.18
George Pickens	DAL @ NYG	5.18
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs NYJ	5.15
Kyle Pitts	ATL @ PIT	5.05
A.J. Brown	NE @ SEA	5.03

Anytime TD

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NO	73%	-264
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs WAS	59%	-144
Chase Brown	CIN vs TB	57%	-132
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs ARI	57%	-130
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs BAL	55%	-122
Christian McCaffrey	SF @ LA	55%	-122
Javonte Williams	DAL @ NYG	55%	-122
D'Andre Swift	CHI @ CAR	55%	-122
Cam Skattebo	NYG vs DAL	55%	-122
Bucky Irving	TB @ CIN	55%	-122
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	55%	-122
Derrick Henry	BAL @ IND	55%	-122
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs MIA	49%	+106
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs TB	49%	+106
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	JAX vs CLE	49%	+106

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs NYG	289.3
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	277.7
Dak Prescott	DAL vs WAS	263.9
Caleb Williams	CHI vs MIN	257.0
Joe Burrow	CIN @ HOU	253.9
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ DEN	250.9
Tyler Shough	NO @ BAL	243.6
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs IND	239.9
Brock Purdy	SF vs MIA	238.1
Aaron Rodgers	PIT @ NE	237.2
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	232.5
Drake Maye	NE vs PIT	232.0

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs NYG	2.41
Dak Prescott	DAL vs WAS	1.91
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	1.89
Brock Purdy	SF vs MIA	1.79
Joe Burrow	CIN @ HOU	1.72
Caleb Williams	CHI vs MIN	1.65
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs IND	1.65
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ DEN	1.59
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	1.58
Drake Maye	NE vs PIT	1.52
Bo Nix	DEN vs JAX	1.51
Sam Darnold	SEA @ ARI	1.50

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL vs NO	92.1
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	86.2
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ KC	81.5
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ TEN	74.6
De'Von Achane	MIA @ SF	73.3
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	72.3
Tony Pollard	TEN vs PHI	68.8
J.K. Dobbins	DEN vs JAX	68.6
Javonte Williams	DAL vs WAS	67.0
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs IND	66.9
Kyren Williams	LA vs NYG	65.7
James Cook	BUF vs DET	65.5
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ LAC	65.3
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	61.4
Bucky Irving	TB vs CLE	61.3

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	89.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	87.8
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ HOU	79.0
Malik Nabers	NYG @ LA	76.2
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	75.9
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs WAS	74.1
George Pickens	DAL vs WAS	70.8
Chris Olave	NO @ BAL	69.6
Drake London	ATL vs CAR	68.6
A.J. Brown	NE vs PIT	66.8
Zay Flowers	BAL vs NO	66.6
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	66.4
Jaylen Waddle	DEN vs JAX	66.0
Garrett Wilson	NYJ vs GB	65.7
Jameson Williams	DET @ BUF	64.8

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	7.23
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ HOU	6.65
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	6.43
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	6.33
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	6.18
Malik Nabers	NYG @ LA	5.89
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs WAS	5.52
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	5.31
George Kittle	SF vs MIA	5.30
Garrett Wilson	NYJ vs GB	5.27
George Pickens	DAL vs WAS	5.26
Chris Olave	NO @ BAL	5.23
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs PHI	5.18
Kyle Pitts	ATL vs CAR	5.13
Drake London	ATL vs CAR	5.10

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	75%	-300
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ BUF	67%	-200
James Cook	BUF vs DET	67%	-200
Javonte Williams	DAL vs WAS	59%	-144
Cam Skattebo	NYG @ LA	57%	-130
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	57%	-130
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	55%	-122
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	55%	-122
Kyren Williams	LA vs NYG	55%	-122
Derrick Henry	BAL vs NO	55%	-122
Zach Charbonnet	SEA @ ARI	55%	-122
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ TEN	55%	-122
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	55%	-122
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ KC	55%	-122
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs IND	49%	+106

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ DEN	284.0
Jared Goff	DET vs NYJ	276.9
Dak Prescott	DAL vs BAL	265.0
Caleb Williams	CHI vs PHI	257.8
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs NE	255.9
Joe Burrow	CIN @ PIT	253.8
Tyler Shough	NO vs LV	244.6
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs CIN	243.3
Brock Purdy	SF vs ARI	238.0
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ MIA	233.6
Bo Nix	DEN vs LA	233.4
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	230.6

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ DEN	2.11
Jared Goff	DET vs NYJ	2.11
Joe Burrow	CIN @ PIT	1.82
Brock Purdy	SF vs ARI	1.81
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs NE	1.76
Dak Prescott	DAL vs BAL	1.75
Caleb Williams	CHI vs PHI	1.62
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ MIA	1.56
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs CIN	1.54
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	1.51
Tyler Shough	NO vs LV	1.49
Bo Nix	DEN vs LA	1.44

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL @ DAL	91.1
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ GB	84.4
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs HOU	82.5
De'Von Achane	MIA vs KC	73.9
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ CHI	73.5
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs ARI	72.5
Tony Pollard	TEN @ NYG	69.0
J.K. Dobbins	DEN vs LA	67.6
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ MIA	66.9
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ NO	66.2
Javonte Williams	DAL vs BAL	65.7
James Cook	BUF vs LAC	65.5
Kyren Williams	LA @ DEN	64.5
Jaylen Warren	PIT vs CIN	61.4
Chase Brown	CIN @ PIT	61.3

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ DEN	87.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ WAS	87.4
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ PIT	79.6
Malik Nabers	NYG vs TEN	77.2
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	76.5
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs BAL	73.2
Chris Olave	NO vs LV	70.5
George Pickens	DAL vs BAL	69.9
Drake London	ATL @ GB	67.6
Zay Flowers	BAL @ DAL	66.7
A.J. Brown	NE @ JAX	66.1
Rashee Rice	KC @ MIA	65.8
Jaylen Waddle	DEN vs LA	65.7
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ DET	65.5
Jameson Williams	DET vs NYJ	65.4

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ DEN	7.15
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ PIT	6.66
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ WAS	6.44
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	6.32
Rashee Rice	KC @ MIA	6.10
Malik Nabers	NYG vs TEN	5.90
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs BAL	5.52
George Kittle	SF vs ARI	5.30
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ GB	5.28
George Pickens	DAL vs BAL	5.26
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ DET	5.25
Chris Olave	NO vs LV	5.24
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ NYG	5.15
Kyle Pitts	ATL @ GB	5.10
Drake London	ATL @ GB	5.07

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs ARI	85%	-550
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NYJ	67%	-200
Javonte Williams	DAL vs BAL	55%	-122
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs HOU	55%	-122
James Cook	BUF vs LAC	55%	-122
Cam Skattebo	NYG vs TEN	55%	-122
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	55%	-122
Chase Brown	CIN @ PIT	55%	-122
Derrick Henry	BAL @ DAL	55%	-122
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs PHI	55%	-122
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	JAX vs NE	49%	+106
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ CHI	49%	+106
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ MIA	49%	+106
Josh Jacobs	GB vs ATL	49%	+106
Zach Charbonnet	SEA @ WAS	49%	+106

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ PHI	285.3
Joe Burrow	CIN vs JAX	260.3
Dak Prescott	DAL @ HOU	258.4
Caleb Williams	CHI vs NYJ	256.3
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ CIN	254.9
Jared Goff	DET @ CAR	251.1
Aaron Rodgers	PIT @ CLE	234.6
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ LV	233.4
Sam Darnold	SEA vs LAC	231.5
Drake Maye	NE @ BUF	231.4
Josh Allen	BUF vs NE	231.0
Kyler Murray	MIN vs MIA	225.2

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ PHI	2.12
Joe Burrow	CIN vs JAX	2.00
Caleb Williams	CHI vs NYJ	1.75
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ CIN	1.73
Dak Prescott	DAL @ HOU	1.62
Kyler Murray	MIN vs MIA	1.56
Josh Allen	BUF vs NE	1.53
Carson Wentz	MIN vs MIA	1.50
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ LV	1.50
Aaron Rodgers	PIT @ CLE	1.45
Sam Darnold	SEA vs LAC	1.44
Drake Maye	NE @ BUF	1.43

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	92.3
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ NO	85.1
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ WAS	82.5
De'Von Achane	MIA @ MIN	73.8
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs LA	73.6
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs DEN	69.6
Tony Pollard	TEN @ BAL	68.0
J.K. Dobbins	DEN @ SF	67.4
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ LV	66.5
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs KC	66.0
Javonte Williams	DAL @ HOU	65.5
James Cook	BUF vs NE	65.5
Kyren Williams	LA @ PHI	64.2
Jaylen Warren	PIT @ CLE	61.9
Chase Brown	CIN vs JAX	61.7

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ PHI	87.7
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs LAC	87.4
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	80.7
Malik Nabers	NYG vs ARI	77.8
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ HOU	72.3
George Pickens	DAL @ HOU	68.9
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ CAR	67.0
Zay Flowers	BAL vs TEN	66.9
A.J. Brown	NE @ BUF	66.7
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ CHI	65.6
Rashee Rice	KC @ LV	65.4
Colston Loveland	CHI vs NYJ	65.0
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ BAL	62.9
Chris Olave	NO vs ATL	62.5
Nico Collins	HOU vs DAL	62.0

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ PHI	7.17
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	6.74
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs LAC	6.48
Rashee Rice	KC @ LV	6.09
Malik Nabers	NYG vs ARI	5.91
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ CAR	5.85
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ HOU	5.44
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ CHI	5.25
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ BAL	5.18
George Pickens	DAL @ HOU	5.17
A.J. Brown	NE @ BUF	5.07
Colston Loveland	CHI vs NYJ	5.06
Zay Flowers	BAL vs TEN	4.89
George Kittle	SF vs DEN	4.88
Chris Olave	NO vs ATL	4.86

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Cam Skattebo	NYG vs ARI	73%	-264
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ WAS	73%	-264
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	JAX @ CIN	59%	-144
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs NYJ	57%	-130
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	55%	-122
Chase Brown	CIN vs JAX	55%	-122
James Cook	BUF vs NE	55%	-122
Josh Allen	BUF vs NE	55%	-122
Jaxson Dart	NYG vs ARI	49%	+106
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs LA	49%	+106
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	49%	+106
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ LV	49%	+106
Kyren Williams	LA @ PHI	49%	+106
Javonte Williams	DAL @ HOU	45%	+122
Zach Charbonnet	SEA vs LAC	45%	+122

Read this before acting on anything above

These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.

Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.