NFL Props — Model Board

Edges

Week 2 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed

Player	Matchup	Market	Bet	Book	Book odds	Our fair odds	Edge
Javonte Williams	DET vs BUF	Receiving yds	Over 12.5	bettingpros	-105	-895*	+38.7
Dawson Knox	BUF vs DET	Receiving yds	Over 14.5	bettingpros	+127	-248*	+27.2
Jared Goff	DET vs BUF	Rushing yds	Over 0.5	bettingpros	+146	-168*	+22.1
Dawson Knox	BUF vs DET	Receptions	Over 1.5	bettingpros	+133	-126*	+12.8
Isaac TeSlaa	DET vs BUF	Receiving yds	Over 15.5	bettingpros	-107	-174*	+11.8
DJ Moore	BUF vs DET	Receiving yds	Under 59.5	bettingpros	-108	+144*	+10.9
Isaac TeSlaa	DET vs BUF	Receptions	Over 1.5	bettingpros	+127	-104*	+6.9
Dalton Kincaid	BUF vs DET	Receiving yds	Under 49.5	bettingpros	-108	+118*	+6.1
DJ Moore	BUF vs DET	Receptions	Under 4.5	bettingpros	+107	+119*	+2.6
Sione Vaki	DET vs BUF	Rushing yds	Over 7.5	bettingpros	-107	-108*	+0.1

Line capture

Append-only store · every snapshot retained

31,131line observations

10snapshots

527players

1,102lines that moved

Market	Rows	Players	Books
Anytime TD	10,591	517	6
Receiving yds	7,089	196	7
Receptions	6,399	194	7
Rushing yds	3,396	94	7
Passing yds	1,517	35	7
Passing TDs	1,479	35	7
Rush + rec yds	660	46	4

Projections

All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds

Passing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	264.6
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	259.7

Passing TDs

Player	Matchup	Projection
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	1.91
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	1.75

Rushing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
James Cook	BUF vs DET	75.0
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ BUF	73.7
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	39.0
Sione Vaki	DET @ BUF	8.1
DJ Moore	BUF vs DET	7.0
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	4.2

Receiving yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	84.8
Jameson Williams	DET @ BUF	63.8
DJ Moore	BUF vs DET	51.7
Sam LaPorta	DET @ BUF	51.6
Khalil Shakir	BUF vs DET	50.3
Dalton Kincaid	BUF vs DET	46.2
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ BUF	35.5
Dawson Knox	BUF vs DET	27.0
Keon Coleman	BUF vs DET	26.2
Josh Palmer	BUF vs DET	25.6
James Cook	BUF vs DET	22.6
Isaac TeSlaa	DET @ BUF	22.4
Sione Vaki	DET @ BUF	9.1

Receptions

Player	Matchup	Projection
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	7.26
Khalil Shakir	BUF vs DET	5.13
Sam LaPorta	DET @ BUF	4.71
Jameson Williams	DET @ BUF	4.50
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ BUF	4.07
DJ Moore	BUF vs DET	3.85
Dalton Kincaid	BUF vs DET	3.33
James Cook	BUF vs DET	2.38
Dawson Knox	BUF vs DET	2.36
Keon Coleman	BUF vs DET	1.95
Josh Palmer	BUF vs DET	1.73
Isaac TeSlaa	DET @ BUF	1.65
Sione Vaki	DET @ BUF	1.09

Anytime TD

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ BUF	62%	-163
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	56%	-129
James Cook	BUF vs DET	51%	-102
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	37%	+173
DJ Moore	BUF vs DET	36%	+177
Jameson Williams	DET @ BUF	36%	+181
Sam LaPorta	DET @ BUF	31%	+218
Khalil Shakir	BUF vs DET	31%	+223
Dalton Kincaid	BUF vs DET	27%	+272
Keon Coleman	BUF vs DET	23%	+329
Dawson Knox	BUF vs DET	22%	+351
Josh Palmer	BUF vs DET	22%	+353
Isaac TeSlaa	DET @ BUF	18%	+457
Sione Vaki	DET @ BUF	10%	+953
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	8%	+1119

Read this before acting on anything above

These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.

Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.