NFL Props — Model Board

Edges

Week 4 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed

Player	Matchup	Market	Bet	Book	Book odds	Our fair odds	Edge
Mike Washington Jr.	MIA vs SF	Receiving yds	Over 0.5	bettingpros	+130	-732*	+44.5
Mike Washington Jr.	MIA vs SF	Rushing yds	Under 22.5	bettingpros	+107	+1033*	+39.5
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	Rush + rec yds	Under 83.5	bettingpros	+107	+525*	+32.3
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs DEN	Rushing yds	Under 51.5	bettingpros	+107	+457*	+30.4
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	Rush + rec yds	Under 75.5	bettingpros	+107	+379*	+27.4
Dawson Knox	BUF vs DET	Receiving yds	Over 14.5	bettingpros	+127	-248*	+27.2
Lamar Jackson	BAL vs NO	Rushing yds	Under 39.5	bettingpros	+104	+352*	+26.9
David Montgomery	HOU vs CIN	Rushing yds	Under 66.5	bettingpros	+107	+358*	+26.5
Michael Wilson	ARI vs SEA	Receiving yds	Over 39.5	bettingpros	+104	-280*	+24.7
Kayshon Boutte	HOU vs CIN	Receiving yds	Over 19.5	bettingpros	-107	-315*	+24.2
Darren Waller	CAR vs ATL	Receiving yds	Over 17.5	bettingpros	-107	-297*	+23.1
Jared Goff	DET vs BUF	Rushing yds	Over 0.5	bettingpros	+146	-166*	+21.8
Mark Andrews	BAL vs NO	Receiving yds	Under 48.5	bettingpros	+107	+277*	+21.8
Jacoby Brissett	ARI vs SEA	Rushing yds	Over 5.5	bettingpros	-107	-272*	+21.5
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	JAX vs DEN	Rushing yds	Over 25.5	bettingpros	-107	-270*	+21.3
Tyquan Thornton	KC vs IND	Receiving yds	Over 14.5	bettingpros	+100	-237*	+20.3
Brock Purdy	SF vs MIA	Rushing yds	Over 15.5	bettingpros	+105	-223*	+20.3
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	Rushing yds	Under 64.5	bettingpros	+107	+251*	+19.8
Bucky Irving	TB vs CLE	Receiving yds	Over 14.5	bettingpros	-107	-246*	+19.4
Drew Lock	SEA vs ARI	Passing TDs	Under 1.5	bettingpros	+189	+534*	+18.8
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs NE	Rushing yds	Over 0.5	bettingpros	-110	-246*	+18.7
Kyle Juszczyk	SF vs MIA	Receiving yds	Over 8.5	bettingpros	-107	-237*	+18.6
Woody Marks	HOU vs CIN	Receiving yds	Over 7.5	bettingpros	-107	-229*	+17.9
Samaje Perine	CIN vs HOU	Rushing yds	Over 14.5	bettingpros	-107	-228*	+17.8
Drake Maye	NE vs PIT	Rushing yds	Over 24.5	bettingpros	+104	-199*	+17.6
Tony Pollard	TEN vs PHI	Rushing yds	Over 44.5	bettingpros	-104	-217*	+17.4
Kyle Pitts Sr.	ATL vs CAR	Receiving yds	Over 34.5	bettingpros	-107	-219*	+16.9
Jaylen Warren	PIT vs NE	Rushing yds	Over 40.5	bettingpros	-107	-217*	+16.8
Mike Washington Jr.	MIA vs SF	Receptions	Over 0.5	bettingpros	+112	-176*	+16.6
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs TEN	Receiving yds	Over 11.5	bettingpros	-107	-209*	+16.0
Quinshon Judkins	CLE vs TB	Receiving yds	Over 9.5	bettingpros	-107	-208*	+15.9
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	Receiving yds	Over 9.5	bettingpros	-107	-205*	+15.5
Jerry Jeudy	CLE vs TB	Receiving yds	Over 26.5	bettingpros	-107	-202*	+15.2
Deebo Samuel Sr.	SF vs MIA	Rushing yds	Over 5.5	bettingpros	-107	-202*	+15.2
Jalen Hurts	PHI vs TEN	Rushing yds	Under 31.5	bettingpros	+107	+193*	+14.1
Samaje Perine	CIN vs HOU	Rush + rec yds	Over 25.5	bettingpros	-107	-191*	+14.0
Patrick Mahomes II	KC vs IND	Rushing yds	Over 17.5	bettingpros	-112	-200*	+13.9
Tyquan Thornton	KC vs IND	Receptions	Over 1.5	bettingpros	+184	+105*	+13.7
Juwan Johnson	NO vs BAL	Receiving yds	Over 29.5	bettingpros	-107	-188*	+13.6
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs GB	Receiving yds	Over 4.5	bettingpros	-107	-188*	+13.6

Line capture

Append-only store · every snapshot retained

31,131line observations

10snapshots

527players

1,102lines that moved

Market	Rows	Players	Books
Anytime TD	10,591	517	6
Receiving yds	7,089	196	7
Receptions	6,399	194	7
Rushing yds	3,396	94	7
Passing yds	1,517	35	7
Passing TDs	1,479	35	7
Rush + rec yds	660	46	4

Projections

All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds

Passing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jared Goff	DET @ CAR	280.8
Matthew Stafford	LA @ PHI	270.3
Tyler Shough	NO vs ATL	268.4
Josh Allen	BUF vs NE	252.7
Joe Burrow	CIN vs JAX	252.2
Caleb Williams	CHI vs NYJ	251.0
Bryce Young	CAR vs DET	243.8
Jordan Love	GB @ TB	242.7
C.J. Stroud	HOU vs DAL	241.9
Dak Prescott	DAL @ HOU	233.6
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ CIN	232.0
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ LV	230.7

Passing TDs

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jared Goff	DET @ CAR	2.13
Joe Burrow	CIN vs JAX	1.92
Matthew Stafford	LA @ PHI	1.87
Tyler Shough	NO vs ATL	1.82
Josh Allen	BUF vs NE	1.78
Caleb Williams	CHI vs NYJ	1.57
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ CIN	1.53
Bryce Young	CAR vs DET	1.51
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ LV	1.50
Dak Prescott	DAL @ HOU	1.48
C.J. Stroud	HOU vs DAL	1.47
Brock Purdy	SF vs DEN	1.44

Rushing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	95.2
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ LV	92.8
James Cook	BUF vs NE	82.3
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ CAR	78.8
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ WAS	78.2
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs LA	76.1
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ NO	73.6
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs KC	71.1
De'Von Achane	MIA @ MIN	69.4
Chase Brown	CIN vs JAX	67.5
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs NYJ	66.0
Bucky Irving	TB vs GB	62.6
Breece Hall	NYJ @ CHI	62.4
Aaron Jones	MIN vs MIA	60.6
J.K. Dobbins	DEN @ SF	57.6

Receiving yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ PHI	91.4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs LAC	88.5
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ CAR	87.2
Chris Olave	NO vs ATL	85.2
Parker Washington	JAX @ CIN	73.4
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	71.0
Zay Flowers	BAL vs TEN	70.8
Justin Jefferson	MIN vs MIA	67.5
Tetairoa McMillan	CAR vs DET	66.7
Trey McBride	ARI @ NYG	66.4
A.J. Brown	NE @ BUF	65.9
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ HOU	64.0
Tee Higgins	CIN vs JAX	63.3
Michael Wilson	ARI @ NYG	62.3
Drake London	ATL @ NO	62.0

Receptions

Player	Matchup	Projection
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ CAR	7.33
Puka Nacua	LA @ PHI	7.17
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs LAC	6.55
Trey McBride	ARI @ NYG	6.47
Chris Olave	NO vs ATL	6.25
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	6.14
Justin Jefferson	MIN vs MIA	5.31
Rashee Rice	KC @ LV	5.23
Parker Washington	JAX @ CIN	5.05
A.J. Brown	NE @ BUF	4.98
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ NO	4.95
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ HOU	4.86
Zay Flowers	BAL vs TEN	4.84
Jalen Coker	CAR vs DET	4.83
Brock Bowers	LV vs KC	4.80

Anytime TD

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Chase Brown	CIN vs JAX	68%	-213
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ CAR	63%	-171
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	59%	-143
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ LV	58%	-140
Josh Allen	BUF vs NE	56%	-130
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ WAS	56%	-126
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs DEN	54%	-119
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ CAR	50%	-100
Javonte Williams	DAL @ HOU	50%	+101
James Cook	BUF vs NE	49%	+103
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs NYJ	48%	+109
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ NO	47%	+115
Kyren Williams	LA @ PHI	46%	+116
Puka Nacua	LA @ PHI	46%	+117
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs LAC	46%	+118

Read this before acting on anything above

These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.

Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.