NFL Props — Model Board

Edges

Week 1 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed

Player	Matchup	Market	Bet	Book	Book odds	Our fair odds	Edge
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rush + rec yds	Under 66.5	draftkings	-115	+4931	+48.4
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	bovada	+2000	-112*	+48.0
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+2000	-112*	+48.0
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betonlineag	+1300	-112*	+45.7
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	fanduel	+1300	-112*	+45.7
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 50.5	draftkings	-114	+1760	+45.0
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 50.5	betonlineag	-115	+1760	+44.9
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 50.5	bovada	-115	+1760	+44.6
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 50.5	fanduel	-114	+1760	+44.6
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 49.5	betrivers	-117	+1570	+44.3
Derrick Henry	BAL vs IND	Rush + rec yds	Under 90.5	draftkings	-113	+1420	+43.4
James Cook	BUF vs HOU	Rush + rec yds	Under 92.5	draftkings	-112	+1069	+41.2
David Montgomery	HOU vs BUF	Rush + rec yds	Under 68.5	draftkings	-113	+925	+40.2
David Montgomery	HOU vs BUF	Rush + rec yds	Under 64.5	betrivers	-113	+703	+37.0
Malik Willis	MIA vs LV	Rushing yds	Under 36.5	bovada	-120	+512	+34.7
Malik Willis	MIA vs LV	Rushing yds	Under 36.5	betonlineag	-118	+512	+34.5
Malik Willis	MIA vs LV	Rushing yds	Under 36.5	draftkings	-115	+512	+34.3
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs CAR	Rush + rec yds	Under 87.5	draftkings	-115	+486	+33.3
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs WAS	Rush + rec yds	Under 98.5	draftkings	-115	+445	+32.1
Justice Hill	BAL vs IND	Rush + rec yds	Over 23.5	draftkings	-115	-454	+31.5
Malik Willis	MIA vs LV	Rushing yds	Under 34.5	fanduel	-114	+420	+30.8
Malik Willis	MIA vs LV	Passing yds	Under 184.5	fanduel	-114	+416	+30.6
Malik Willis	MIA vs LV	Passing yds	Under 182.5	betonlineag	-114	+401	+30.0
David Montgomery	HOU vs BUF	Rushing yds	Under 55.5	bovada	-115	+401	+30.0
David Montgomery	HOU vs BUF	Rushing yds	Under 55.5	draftkings	-111	+401	+29.8
Malik Willis	MIA vs LV	Passing yds	Under 180.5	draftkings	-112	+387	+29.5
Malik Willis	MIA vs LV	Passing yds	Under 180.5	bovada	-115	+387	+29.5
David Montgomery	HOU vs BUF	Rushing yds	Under 54.5	betonlineag	-116	+374	+29.4
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs WAS	Rush + rec yds	Under 95.5	betrivers	-113	+389	+29.2
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE vs SEA	Rush + rec yds	Under 87.5	draftkings	-112	+379	+28.9
Malik Willis	MIA vs LV	Passing yds	Under 177.5	betrivers	-114	+367	+28.3
David Montgomery	HOU vs BUF	Rushing yds	Under 53.5	fanduel	-114	+349	+27.7
Matthew Golden	GB vs MIN	Receiving yds	Under 41.5	draftkings	-109	+361	+27.7
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NO	Rush + rec yds	Under 120.5	betrivers	-113	+356	+27.5
Woody Marks	HOU vs BUF	Rushing yds	Over 29.5	betrivers	-113	-335	+27.5
Breece Hall	NYJ vs TEN	Rush + rec yds	Under 88.5	betrivers	-118	+334	+27.5
Matthew Golden	GB vs MIN	Receiving yds	Under 40.5	betrivers	-118	+333	+27.4
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NO	Rush + rec yds	Under 119.5	draftkings	-112	+343	+27.3
Matthew Golden	GB vs MIN	Receiving yds	Under 41.5	bovada	-110	+361	+27.3
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	Rush + rec yds	Under 72.5	draftkings	-114	+335	+27.2

Line capture

Append-only store · every snapshot retained

8,885line observations

6snapshots

480players

124lines that moved

Market	Rows	Players	Books
Anytime TD	3,125	480	6
Receiving yds	1,958	141	5
Receptions	1,764	139	5
Rushing yds	1,014	68	5
Passing yds	438	30	5
Passing TDs	422	30	5
Rush + rec yds	164	33	2

Projections

All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds

Week 1 · 2026 season · Wed 09 Sep – Mon 14 Sep · 16 games

Passing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs SF	289.7
Jared Goff	DET vs NO	278.6
Joe Burrow	CIN vs TB	259.6
Dak Prescott	DAL @ NYG	257.6
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs CLE	253.2
Caleb Williams	CHI @ CAR	252.6
Tyler Shough	NO @ DET	244.6
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs ATL	240.2
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs DEN	238.6
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ LAC	237.9
Brock Purdy	SF @ LA	236.5
Sam Darnold	SEA vs NE	231.4

Passing TDs

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs SF	2.27
Jared Goff	DET vs NO	2.12
Joe Burrow	CIN vs TB	2.00
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs CLE	1.81
Dak Prescott	DAL @ NYG	1.75
Caleb Williams	CHI @ CAR	1.59
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs ATL	1.56
Justin Herbert	LAC vs ARI	1.52
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs DEN	1.52
Brock Purdy	SF @ LA	1.49
Kyler Murray	MIN vs GB	1.49
Sam Darnold	SEA vs NE	1.44

Rushing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL @ IND	90.6
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ PIT	86.0
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs BAL	81.8
De'Von Achane	MIA @ LV	74.5
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs WAS	74.2
Christian McCaffrey	SF @ LA	69.8
Tony Pollard	TEN vs NYJ	69.6
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs MIA	67.6
J.K. Dobbins	DEN @ KC	66.6
Javonte Williams	DAL @ NYG	65.9
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs DEN	65.7
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	64.3
James Cook	BUF @ HOU	64.1
Jaylen Warren	PIT vs ATL	62.1
Chase Brown	CIN vs TB	61.8

Receiving yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	88.1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs NE	87.3
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs TB	79.8
Malik Nabers	NYG vs DAL	76.9
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NO	76.3
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ NYG	73.7
George Pickens	DAL @ NYG	69.8
Chris Olave	NO @ DET	69.0
Drake London	ATL @ PIT	66.5
Jameson Williams	DET vs NO	65.5
A.J. Brown	NE @ SEA	65.4
Zay Flowers	BAL @ IND	65.3
Trey McBride	ARI @ LAC	64.9
Rashee Rice	KC vs DEN	64.9
Jaylen Waddle	DEN @ KC	64.8

Receptions

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	7.17
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs TB	6.69
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs NE	6.46
Trey McBride	ARI @ LAC	6.42
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NO	6.32
Rashee Rice	KC vs DEN	6.11
Malik Nabers	NYG vs DAL	5.88
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ NYG	5.47
George Kittle	SF @ LA	5.24
Chris Olave	NO @ DET	5.22
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ PIT	5.20
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ TEN	5.18
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs NYJ	5.14
George Pickens	DAL @ NYG	5.12
Kyle Pitts	ATL @ PIT	5.04

Anytime TD

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Christian McCaffrey	SF @ LA	59%	-146
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NO	58%	-140
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs ARI	54%	-118
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs BAL	53%	-114
Chase Brown	CIN vs TB	53%	-112
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	53%	-111
D'Andre Swift	CHI @ CAR	51%	-105
Javonte Williams	DAL @ NYG	51%	-102
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs WAS	48%	+107
Josh Allen	BUF @ HOU	48%	+110
Cam Skattebo	NYG vs DAL	47%	+113
Jaxson Dart	NYG vs DAL	46%	+117
Zach Charbonnet	SEA vs NE	46%	+119
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs TB	45%	+122
Derrick Henry	BAL @ IND	45%	+123

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs NYG	288.8
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	276.7
Dak Prescott	DAL vs WAS	263.1
Caleb Williams	CHI vs MIN	256.8
Joe Burrow	CIN @ HOU	254.5
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ DEN	251.5
Tyler Shough	NO @ BAL	243.5
Jacoby Brissett	ARI vs SEA	241.4
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs IND	239.5
Brock Purdy	SF vs MIA	238.0
Aaron Rodgers	PIT @ NE	237.3
Drake Maye	NE vs PIT	231.9

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs NYG	2.41
Dak Prescott	DAL vs WAS	1.89
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	1.87
Brock Purdy	SF vs MIA	1.79
Joe Burrow	CIN @ HOU	1.73
Caleb Williams	CHI vs MIN	1.64
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs IND	1.64
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ DEN	1.59
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	1.56
Drake Maye	NE vs PIT	1.53
Bo Nix	DEN vs JAX	1.52
Sam Darnold	SEA @ ARI	1.51

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL vs NO	91.6
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	87.1
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ KC	81.0
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ TEN	74.1
De'Von Achane	MIA @ SF	73.1
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	72.7
Tony Pollard	TEN vs PHI	68.4
J.K. Dobbins	DEN vs JAX	67.8
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs IND	66.3
Javonte Williams	DAL vs WAS	66.3
Kyren Williams	LA vs NYG	65.3
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ LAC	65.2
James Cook	BUF vs DET	65.0
Bucky Irving	TB vs CLE	61.4
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	61.3

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	88.7
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	87.9
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ HOU	78.0
Malik Nabers	NYG @ LA	75.9
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	75.2
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs WAS	74.8
George Pickens	DAL vs WAS	70.8
Chris Olave	NO @ BAL	68.4
Drake London	ATL vs CAR	67.8
A.J. Brown	NE vs PIT	66.6
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	66.1
Zay Flowers	BAL vs NO	66.0
Jaylen Waddle	DEN vs JAX	65.9
Garrett Wilson	NYJ vs GB	65.1
Trey McBride	ARI vs SEA	64.7

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	7.17
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ HOU	6.60
Trey McBride	ARI vs SEA	6.45
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	6.42
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	6.28
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	6.15
Malik Nabers	NYG @ LA	5.83
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs WAS	5.54
George Kittle	SF vs MIA	5.29
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	5.27
Garrett Wilson	NYJ vs GB	5.24
George Pickens	DAL vs WAS	5.20
Chris Olave	NO @ BAL	5.19
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs PHI	5.15
Kyle Pitts	ATL vs CAR	5.11

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	65%	-188
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ BUF	55%	-120
Javonte Williams	DAL vs WAS	55%	-120
Kyren Williams	LA vs NYG	54%	-116
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ KC	52%	-109
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	52%	-107
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	51%	-104
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	51%	-103
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	50%	-101
James Cook	BUF vs DET	50%	-100
Zach Charbonnet	SEA @ ARI	50%	-100
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	49%	+106
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs IND	47%	+113
Chase Brown	CIN @ HOU	46%	+116
Derrick Henry	BAL vs NO	46%	+116

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ DEN	284.0
Jared Goff	DET vs NYJ	276.7
Dak Prescott	DAL vs BAL	264.3
Caleb Williams	CHI vs PHI	257.5
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs NE	256.1
Joe Burrow	CIN @ PIT	253.8
Tyler Shough	NO vs LV	244.9
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs CIN	242.5
Brock Purdy	SF vs ARI	237.9
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ SF	237.7
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ MIA	233.6
Bo Nix	DEN vs LA	233.3

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ DEN	2.13
Jared Goff	DET vs NYJ	2.11
Joe Burrow	CIN @ PIT	1.82
Brock Purdy	SF vs ARI	1.81
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs NE	1.77
Dak Prescott	DAL vs BAL	1.74
Caleb Williams	CHI vs PHI	1.62
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ MIA	1.56
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs CIN	1.52
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	1.50
Tyler Shough	NO vs LV	1.49
Bo Nix	DEN vs LA	1.44

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL @ DAL	90.5
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ GB	85.2
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs HOU	82.1
De'Von Achane	MIA vs KC	73.8
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs ARI	72.9
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ CHI	72.9
Tony Pollard	TEN @ NYG	68.5
J.K. Dobbins	DEN vs LA	66.7
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ MIA	66.4
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ NO	66.1
James Cook	BUF vs LAC	65.1
Javonte Williams	DAL vs BAL	65.0
Kyren Williams	LA @ DEN	64.1
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NYJ	62.0
Chase Brown	CIN @ PIT	61.3

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ WAS	87.4
Puka Nacua	LA @ DEN	87.2
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ PIT	78.5
Malik Nabers	NYG vs TEN	76.9
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	75.9
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs BAL	73.8
George Pickens	DAL vs BAL	69.9
Chris Olave	NO vs LV	69.4
Drake London	ATL @ GB	66.7
Zay Flowers	BAL @ DAL	66.0
A.J. Brown	NE @ JAX	65.9
Jaylen Waddle	DEN vs LA	65.5
Rashee Rice	KC @ MIA	65.4
Jameson Williams	DET vs NYJ	65.1
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ DET	64.8

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ DEN	7.10
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ PIT	6.60
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ WAS	6.43
Trey McBride	ARI @ SF	6.41
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	6.29
Rashee Rice	KC @ MIA	6.08
Malik Nabers	NYG vs TEN	5.86
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs BAL	5.53
George Kittle	SF vs ARI	5.29
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ GB	5.22
Chris Olave	NO vs LV	5.22
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ DET	5.22
George Pickens	DAL vs BAL	5.19
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ NYG	5.12
Kyle Pitts	ATL @ GB	5.07

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs ARI	68%	-208
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NYJ	58%	-136
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs HOU	54%	-118
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	50%	-100
James Cook	BUF vs LAC	50%	-100
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ MIA	49%	+104
Chase Brown	CIN @ PIT	49%	+104
Kyren Williams	LA @ DEN	49%	+105
Zach Charbonnet	SEA @ WAS	49%	+106
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs PHI	48%	+110
Javonte Williams	DAL vs BAL	47%	+112
Derrick Henry	BAL @ DAL	46%	+117
Jaxson Dart	NYG vs TEN	45%	+124
Travis Etienne	NO vs LV	44%	+127
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ GB	44%	+127

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ PHI	285.0
Jared Goff	DET @ CAR	273.9
Joe Burrow	CIN vs JAX	260.1
Dak Prescott	DAL @ HOU	258.2
Caleb Williams	CHI vs NYJ	256.0
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ CIN	254.4
Tyler Shough	NO vs ATL	246.1
Brock Purdy	SF vs DEN	239.4
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ NYG	236.6
Aaron Rodgers	PIT @ CLE	235.0
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ LV	233.5
Sam Darnold	SEA vs LAC	231.8

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ PHI	2.13
Joe Burrow	CIN vs JAX	1.99
Jared Goff	DET @ CAR	1.92
Caleb Williams	CHI vs NYJ	1.74
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ CIN	1.72
Brock Purdy	SF vs DEN	1.63
Dak Prescott	DAL @ HOU	1.62
Kyler Murray	MIN vs MIA	1.56
Josh Allen	BUF vs NE	1.52
Tyler Shough	NO vs ATL	1.52
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ LV	1.51
Carson Wentz	MIN vs MIA	1.50

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	91.8
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ NO	86.2
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ WAS	82.0
De'Von Achane	MIA @ MIN	73.7
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs LA	73.0
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs DEN	71.1
Tony Pollard	TEN @ BAL	67.5
J.K. Dobbins	DEN @ SF	66.6
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ LV	66.1
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs KC	65.9
James Cook	BUF vs NE	65.1
Javonte Williams	DAL @ HOU	64.9
Kyren Williams	LA @ PHI	63.8
Jaylen Warren	PIT @ CLE	61.8
Chase Brown	CIN vs JAX	61.6

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs LAC	87.4
Puka Nacua	LA @ PHI	87.4
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	79.9
Malik Nabers	NYG vs ARI	77.6
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ CAR	75.1
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ HOU	72.8
Chris Olave	NO vs ATL	69.8
George Pickens	DAL @ HOU	68.9
Drake London	ATL @ NO	67.1
A.J. Brown	NE @ BUF	66.4
Zay Flowers	BAL vs TEN	66.3
Jaylen Waddle	DEN @ SF	65.4
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ CHI	65.0
Trey McBride	ARI @ NYG	65.0
Rashee Rice	KC @ LV	65.0

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ PHI	7.11
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	6.69
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs LAC	6.47
Trey McBride	ARI @ NYG	6.41
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ CAR	6.25
Rashee Rice	KC @ LV	6.07
Malik Nabers	NYG vs ARI	5.87
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ HOU	5.46
George Kittle	SF vs DEN	5.28
Chris Olave	NO vs ATL	5.24
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ NO	5.22
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ CHI	5.22
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ BAL	5.14
George Pickens	DAL @ HOU	5.11
Kyle Pitts	ATL @ NO	5.06

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs DEN	64%	-178
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ WAS	59%	-146
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ CAR	56%	-129
Cam Skattebo	NYG vs ARI	56%	-128
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs NYJ	54%	-118
Chase Brown	CIN vs JAX	53%	-113
Josh Allen	BUF vs NE	52%	-107
Kyren Williams	LA @ PHI	50%	-102
Jaxson Dart	NYG vs ARI	50%	-101
James Cook	BUF vs NE	50%	-100
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ NO	47%	+113
Zach Charbonnet	SEA vs LAC	47%	+113
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	46%	+117
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ LV	46%	+117
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE @ BUF	45%	+124

Read this before acting on anything above

These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.

Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.