NFL Props — Model Board

Edges

Week 5 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed

Player	Matchup	Market	Bet	Book	Book odds	Our fair odds	Edge
Camden Brown	CIN vs JAX	Anytime TD	To score a TD	fanduel	+2700	-125*	+52.1
Camden Brown	CIN vs JAX	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betrivers	+2200	-125*	+51.3
Camden Brown	CIN vs JAX	Anytime TD	To score a TD	bovada	+2200	-125*	+51.3
Camden Brown	CIN vs JAX	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+2200	-125*	+51.3
Camden Brown	CIN vs JAX	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betonlineag	+1900	-125*	+50.6
Jeremiyah Love	ARI vs NYG	Rush + rec yds	Under 89.5	draftkings	-112	+2289	+45.6
Jeremiyah Love	ARI vs NYG	Rush + rec yds	Under 87.5	fanduel	-113	+1976	+45.2
Jeremiyah Love	ARI vs NYG	Rush + rec yds	Under 87.5	betmgm	-115	+1976	+45.2
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CHI	Rushing yds	Under 56.5	fanduel	-113	+1882	+45.0
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CHI	Rushing yds	Under 55.5	draftkings	-114	+1690	+44.8
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CHI	Rushing yds	Under 56.5	betonlineag	-112	+1882	+44.6
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CHI	Rushing yds	Under 55.5	bovada	-115	+1690	+44.4
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	Rush + rec yds	Under 110.5	draftkings	-113	+1671	+44.4
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	Rush + rec yds	Under 109.5	fanduel	-113	+1576	+44.0
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CHI	Rushing yds	Under 54.5	betmgm	-115	+1520	+43.8
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	Rush + rec yds	Under 108.5	betmgm	-115	+1486	+43.7
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	Rush + rec yds	Under 106.5	betrivers	-118	+1324	+43.5
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CHI	Rush + rec yds	Under 72.5	draftkings	-113	+1401	+43.3
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CHI	Rushing yds	Under 54.5	betrivers	-113	+1520	+43.3
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CHI	Rush + rec yds	Under 71.5	fanduel	-113	+1299	+42.9
James Cook	BUF vs NE	Rush + rec yds	Under 100.5	draftkings	-114	+1099	+41.9
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CHI	Rush + rec yds	Under 70.5	betrivers	-113	+1206	+41.8
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CHI	Rush + rec yds	Under 69.5	betmgm	-115	+1121	+41.8
James Cook	BUF vs NE	Rush + rec yds	Under 99.5	betrivers	-114	+1039	+40.9
James Cook	BUF vs NE	Rush + rec yds	Under 98.5	betmgm	-115	+982	+40.8
Tyson Bagent	CHI vs NYJ	Passing yds	Under 200.5	betonlineag	-118	+832	+40.1
Tyson Bagent	CHI vs NYJ	Passing yds	Under 203.5	betmgm	-115	+881	+39.8
James Cook	BUF vs NE	Rush + rec yds	Under 96.5	fanduel	-113	+879	+39.8
Tyson Bagent	CHI vs NYJ	Passing yds	Under 200.5	draftkings	-114	+832	+39.7
Tyson Bagent	CHI vs NYJ	Passing yds	Under 200.5	bovada	-115	+832	+39.3
Tyson Bagent	CHI vs NYJ	Passing yds	Under 199.5	betrivers	-115	+816	+39.1
Tyson Bagent	CHI vs NYJ	Passing yds	Under 199.5	fanduel	-113	+816	+39.1
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CIN	Rush + rec yds	Under 71.5	draftkings	-111	+800	+38.5
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CIN	Rush + rec yds	Under 69.5	fanduel	-113	+702	+37.5
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CIN	Rush + rec yds	Under 69.5	betmgm	-115	+702	+37.5
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CIN	Rush + rec yds	Under 69.5	betrivers	-114	+702	+37.2
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs CAR	Rush + rec yds	Under 140.5	betmgm	-115	+648	+36.6
Tank Bigsby	PHI vs LA	Rushing yds	Over 10.5	betonlineag	+109	-443	+36.6
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs CAR	Rush + rec yds	Under 140.5	draftkings	-111	+648	+36.3
Jeremiyah Love	ARI vs NYG	Rushing yds	Under 67.5	betrivers	-115	+595	+35.6

Line capture

Append-only store · every snapshot retained

39,246line observations

11snapshots

572players

1,102lines that moved

Market	Rows	Players	Books
Anytime TD	13,034	562	6
Receiving yds	9,037	233	7
Receptions	8,165	233	7
Rushing yds	4,358	113	7
Passing yds	1,871	40	7
Passing TDs	1,831	40	7
Rush + rec yds	950	54	5

Projections

All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds

Passing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs BUF	282.7
Jared Goff	DET @ ARI	275.1
Tyler Shough	NO vs MIN	266.0
Jordan Love	GB vs CHI	258.4
Dak Prescott	DAL vs TB	256.1
Joe Burrow	CIN @ MIA	253.0
Caleb Williams	CHI @ GB	247.0
Jacoby Brissett	ARI vs DET	246.3
Josh Allen	BUF @ LA	239.5
Brock Purdy	SF @ SEA	234.1
C.J. Stroud	HOU @ TEN	233.7
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs IND	230.1

Passing TDs

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jared Goff	DET @ ARI	2.18
Matthew Stafford	LA vs BUF	2.13
Dak Prescott	DAL vs TB	1.95
Joe Burrow	CIN @ MIA	1.87
Jacoby Brissett	ARI vs DET	1.68
Tyler Shough	NO vs MIN	1.61
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs PHI	1.56
Josh Allen	BUF @ LA	1.53
Caleb Williams	CHI @ GB	1.53
Jordan Love	GB vs CHI	1.52
C.J. Stroud	HOU @ TEN	1.44
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs IND	1.42

Rushing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL @ ATL	92.5
James Cook	BUF @ LA	85.5
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ ARI	82.9
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ PIT	80.5
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs BAL	73.6
Chase Brown	CIN @ MIA	71.1
De'Von Achane	MIA vs CIN	70.2
D'Andre Swift	CHI @ GB	66.9
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ NE	66.7
Jaylen Warren	PIT vs IND	64.9
Javonte Williams	DAL vs TB	64.4
Breece Hall	NYJ vs CLE	63.3
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ JAX	63.0
Kyren Williams	LA vs BUF	62.2
Aaron Jones	MIN @ NO	60.4

Receiving yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs SF	90.8
Puka Nacua	LA vs BUF	86.8
Chris Olave	NO vs MIN	83.4
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ ARI	80.3
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ MIA	69.3
Garrett Wilson	NYJ vs CLE	69.2
Zay Flowers	BAL @ ATL	69.2
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs TB	69.0
Parker Washington	JAX vs PHI	68.7
Davante Adams	LA vs BUF	68.4
Trey McBride	ARI vs DET	68.3
Michael Wilson	ARI vs DET	68.1
A.J. Brown	NE vs LV	67.2
Justin Jefferson	MIN @ NO	66.5
George Pickens	DAL vs TB	63.5

Receptions

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs SF	6.83
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ ARI	6.69
Puka Nacua	LA vs BUF	6.62
Trey McBride	ARI vs DET	6.54
Chris Olave	NO vs MIN	6.19
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ MIA	6.08
Justin Jefferson	MIN @ NO	5.28
Brock Bowers	LV @ NE	5.28
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs TB	5.28
Michael Wilson	ARI vs DET	5.25
Garrett Wilson	NYJ vs CLE	5.16
A.J. Brown	NE vs LV	5.02
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs BAL	4.97
DeVonta Smith	PHI @ JAX	4.93
George Pickens	DAL vs TB	4.87

Anytime TD

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ ARI	69%	-218
Josh Allen	BUF @ LA	54%	-119
Kyren Williams	LA vs BUF	54%	-118
Javonte Williams	DAL vs TB	53%	-111
James Cook	BUF @ LA	53%	-111
Derrick Henry	BAL @ ATL	51%	-104
Christian McCaffrey	SF @ SEA	50%	-101
Zach Charbonnet	SEA vs SF	48%	+106
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ ARI	48%	+107
Puka Nacua	LA vs BUF	48%	+109
James Conner	ARI vs DET	47%	+113
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs SF	47%	+114
D'Andre Swift	CHI @ GB	46%	+120
Chase Brown	CIN @ MIA	45%	+122
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ PIT	44%	+129

Read this before acting on anything above

These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.

Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.