NFL Props — Model Board

Edges

Week 2 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed

Player	Matchup	Market	Bet	Book	Book odds	Our fair odds	Edge
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs DEN	Rushing yds	Under 51.5	bettingpros	+107	+1786*	+43.0
Mike Washington Jr.	MIA vs SF	Receiving yds	Over 0.5	bettingpros	+130	-556*	+41.3
Mike Washington Jr.	MIA vs SF	Rushing yds	Under 22.5	bettingpros	+107	+995*	+39.2
David Montgomery	HOU vs CIN	Rushing yds	Under 66.5	bettingpros	+107	+818*	+37.4
Lamar Jackson	BAL vs NO	Rushing yds	Under 39.5	bettingpros	+104	+471*	+31.5
Dawson Knox	BUF vs DET	Receiving yds	Over 14.5	bettingpros	+127	-291*	+30.4
Darren Waller	CAR vs ATL	Receiving yds	Over 17.5	bettingpros	-107	-371*	+27.1
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	JAX vs DEN	Rushing yds	Over 25.5	bettingpros	-107	-343*	+25.7
Mark Andrews	BAL vs NO	Receiving yds	Under 48.5	bettingpros	+107	+337*	+25.5
Matthew Golden	GB vs NYJ	Receiving yds	Under 46.5	bettingpros	+107	+328*	+24.9
Kayshon Boutte	HOU vs CIN	Receiving yds	Over 19.5	bettingpros	-107	-324*	+24.7
Matthew Stafford	LA vs NYG	Passing yds	Over 242.5	bettingpros	-107	-314*	+24.2
Jared Goff	DET vs BUF	Rushing yds	Over 0.5	bettingpros	+146	-181*	+23.7
Michael Wilson	ARI vs SEA	Receiving yds	Over 39.5	bettingpros	+104	-260*	+23.2
Mason Taylor	NYJ vs GB	Receiving yds	Over 15.5	bettingpros	-107	-295*	+23.0
Tyquan Thornton	KC vs IND	Receiving yds	Over 14.5	bettingpros	+100	-258*	+22.0
Isaiah Likely	NYG vs LA	Receiving yds	Under 46.5	bettingpros	+104	+270*	+22.0
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	Rush + rec yds	Under 75.5	bettingpros	+107	+278*	+21.9
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	Rush + rec yds	Under 83.5	bettingpros	+107	+271*	+21.3
Kyle Juszczyk	SF vs MIA	Receiving yds	Over 8.5	bettingpros	-107	-266*	+21.0
Tony Pollard	TEN vs PHI	Rushing yds	Over 44.5	bettingpros	-104	-255*	+20.8
Kyle Pitts Sr.	ATL vs CAR	Receiving yds	Over 34.5	bettingpros	-107	-261*	+20.6
Malik Willis	MIA vs SF	Rushing yds	Under 40.5	bettingpros	+107	+256*	+20.2
Samaje Perine	CIN vs HOU	Rushing yds	Over 14.5	bettingpros	-107	-255*	+20.1
Brock Purdy	SF vs MIA	Rushing yds	Over 15.5	bettingpros	+105	-221*	+20.1
Jalen Hurts	PHI vs TEN	Rushing yds	Under 31.5	bettingpros	+107	+252*	+19.9
Deebo Samuel Sr.	SF vs MIA	Rushing yds	Over 5.5	bettingpros	-107	-249*	+19.6
Drew Lock	SEA vs ARI	Passing TDs	Under 1.5	bettingpros	+189	+548*	+19.2
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	Rushing yds	Under 64.5	bettingpros	+107	+238*	+18.8
Lamar Jackson	BAL vs NO	Passing yds	Under 226.5	bettingpros	+107	+234*	+18.4
Isaac TeSlaa	DET vs BUF	Receiving yds	Over 15.5	bettingpros	-107	-231*	+18.1
Woody Marks	HOU vs CIN	Receiving yds	Over 7.5	bettingpros	-107	-229*	+17.9
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	Receiving yds	Over 9.5	bettingpros	-107	-229*	+17.9
DJ Moore	BUF vs DET	Receiving yds	Under 59.5	bettingpros	-108	+189*	+17.3
Jacoby Brissett	ARI vs SEA	Rushing yds	Over 5.5	bettingpros	-107	-220*	+17.0
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs TEN	Receiving yds	Over 11.5	bettingpros	-107	-217*	+16.7
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs NE	Rushing yds	Over 0.5	bettingpros	-110	-222*	+16.6
Malik Washington	MIA vs SF	Receiving yds	Under 28.5	bettingpros	+107	+214*	+16.5
Jerry Jeudy	CLE vs TB	Receiving yds	Over 26.5	bettingpros	-107	-214*	+16.5
Juwan Johnson	NO vs BAL	Receiving yds	Over 29.5	bettingpros	-107	-209*	+15.9

Line capture

Append-only store · every snapshot retained

31,131line observations

10snapshots

527players

1,102lines that moved

Market	Rows	Players	Books
Anytime TD	10,591	517	6
Receiving yds	7,089	196	7
Receptions	6,399	194	7
Rushing yds	3,396	94	7
Passing yds	1,517	35	7
Passing TDs	1,479	35	7
Rush + rec yds	660	46	4

Projections

All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds

Passing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs NYG	294.3
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	280.1
Joe Burrow	CIN @ HOU	264.2
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	256.3
Caleb Williams	CHI vs MIN	246.7
Tyler Shough	NO @ BAL	242.9
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ DEN	242.6
Drake Maye	NE vs PIT	234.7
Dak Prescott	DAL vs WAS	233.5
Bo Nix	DEN vs JAX	231.7
Jordan Love	GB @ NYJ	231.4
Jacoby Brissett	ARI vs SEA	230.8

Passing TDs

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs NYG	2.36
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	1.93
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	1.91
Joe Burrow	CIN @ HOU	1.82
Brock Purdy	SF vs MIA	1.65
Caleb Williams	CHI vs MIN	1.62
Dak Prescott	DAL vs WAS	1.61
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ DEN	1.57
Drake Maye	NE vs PIT	1.57
Bo Nix	DEN vs JAX	1.54
Jordan Love	GB @ NYJ	1.49
Justin Herbert	LAC vs LV	1.46

Rushing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL vs NO	94.4
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	81.4
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ TEN	79.7
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs IND	77.0
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ KC	72.8
De'Von Achane	MIA @ SF	72.1
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ LAC	71.4
James Cook	BUF vs DET	69.5
J.K. Dobbins	DEN vs JAX	68.0
Tony Pollard	TEN vs PHI	67.1
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	63.8
Bucky Irving	TB vs CLE	62.3
Kyren Williams	LA vs NYG	62.0
Chase Brown	CIN @ HOU	61.8
Javonte Williams	DAL vs WAS	59.8

Receiving yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	92.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	83.6
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	76.9
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ HOU	76.8
Chris Olave	NO @ BAL	75.7
Zay Flowers	BAL vs NO	69.5
Drake London	ATL vs CAR	68.1
Malik Nabers	NYG @ LA	67.3
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs PHI	67.1
Colston Loveland	CHI vs MIN	66.9
A.J. Brown	NE vs PIT	66.4
George Pickens	DAL vs WAS	65.0
Jameson Williams	DET @ BUF	64.9
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	64.4
Parker Washington	JAX @ DEN	63.9

Receptions

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	7.24
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ HOU	6.60
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	6.45
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	6.19
Trey McBride	ARI vs SEA	6.15
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	6.07
Chris Olave	NO @ BAL	5.86
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs PHI	5.61
Malik Nabers	NYG @ LA	5.16
Khalil Shakir	BUF vs DET	5.15
Colston Loveland	CHI vs MIN	5.13
Kyle Pitts	ATL vs CAR	5.00
Drake London	ATL vs CAR	4.96
Justin Jefferson	MIN @ CHI	4.96
A.J. Brown	NE vs PIT	4.96

Anytime TD

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	64%	-177
Javonte Williams	DAL vs WAS	60%	-152
James Cook	BUF vs DET	57%	-132
Derrick Henry	BAL vs NO	56%	-127
Kyren Williams	LA vs NYG	55%	-120
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs IND	54%	-119
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	54%	-117
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	51%	-104
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ TEN	50%	-100
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	50%	-100
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ BUF	50%	+101
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	47%	+112
Bucky Irving	TB vs CLE	47%	+112
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ KC	45%	+121
Cam Skattebo	NYG @ LA	45%	+124

Read this before acting on anything above

These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.

Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.