NFL Props — Model Board

Edges

Week 1 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed

Player	Matchup	Market	Bet	Book	Book odds	Our fair odds	Edge
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rush + rec yds	Under 65.5	draftkings	-116	+4363	+48.4
Jeremiyah Love	GB vs MIN	Rushing yds	Under 38.5	betonlineag	-119	+2947	+47.7
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rush + rec yds	Under 65.5	betrivers	-113	+4363	+47.4
Jeremiyah Love	GB vs MIN	Rushing yds	Under 38.5	draftkings	-115	+2947	+47.4
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rush + rec yds	Under 63.5	betmgm	-115	+3540	+47.3
Jeremiyah Love	GB vs MIN	Rushing yds	Under 39.5	betmgm	-115	+3459	+47.2
Jeremiyah Love	GB vs MIN	Rushing yds	Under 39.5	fanduel	-114	+3459	+47.2
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	fanduel	+2500	+102*	+45.7
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betrivers	+2400	+102*	+45.5
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+2000	+102*	+44.8
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betmgm	+2000	+102*	+44.8
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	bovada	+2000	+102*	+44.8
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betonlineag	+1700	+102*	+44.0
James Cook	BUF vs HOU	Rush + rec yds	Under 95.5	betmgm	-115	+1207	+42.3
Derrick Henry	BAL vs IND	Rush + rec yds	Under 89.5	draftkings	-113	+1167	+42.1
James Cook	BUF vs HOU	Rush + rec yds	Under 93.5	draftkings	-115	+1071	+41.9
David Montgomery	HOU vs BUF	Rush + rec yds	Under 67.5	draftkings	-115	+1067	+41.8
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 50.5	betonlineag	-115	+1064	+41.7
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 50.5	betrivers	-117	+1064	+41.7
Derrick Henry	BAL vs IND	Rush + rec yds	Under 88.5	betrivers	-115	+1097	+41.6
David Montgomery	HOU vs BUF	Rush + rec yds	Under 67.5	betmgm	-115	+1067	+41.4
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 50.5	fanduel	-114	+1064	+41.4
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 49.5	draftkings	-114	+963	+41.0
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 48.5	betmgm	-120	+873	+40.6
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 49.5	bovada	-115	+963	+40.6
David Montgomery	HOU vs BUF	Rush + rec yds	Under 64.5	betrivers	-114	+859	+39.3
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	bovada	+2200	+132*	+38.8
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+2200	+132*	+38.8
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betrivers	+1500	+132*	+36.9
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	fanduel	+1300	+132*	+36.0
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betonlineag	+1300	+132*	+36.0
Lamar Jackson	BAL vs IND	Rushing yds	Under 38.5	fanduel	-114	+507	+33.5
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NO	Rush + rec yds	Under 122.5	betmgm	-115	+481	+32.8
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	Rushing yds	Over 2.5	fanduel	+108	-343	+32.1
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs WAS	Rush + rec yds	Under 98.5	draftkings	-114	+445	+31.9
Lamar Jackson	BAL vs IND	Rushing yds	Under 37.5	betrivers	-114	+460	+31.9
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NO	Rush + rec yds	Under 120.5	draftkings	-113	+445	+31.7
Jared Goff	DET vs NO	Rushing yds	Over 0.5	fanduel	+142	-235	+31.4
Lamar Jackson	BAL vs IND	Rushing yds	Under 36.5	betonlineag	-115	+418	+31.0
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs WAS	Rush + rec yds	Under 97.5	betmgm	-115	+426	+31.0

Line capture

Append-only store · every snapshot retained

30,672line observations

9snapshots

517players

1,102lines that moved

Market	Rows	Players	Books
Anytime TD	10,591	517	6
Receiving yds	6,934	170	6
Receptions	6,255	168	6
Rushing yds	3,320	84	6
Passing yds	1,486	32	6
Passing TDs	1,448	32	6
Rush + rec yds	638	40	3

Projections

All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds

Week 1 · 2026 season · Wed 09 Sep – Mon 14 Sep · 16 games

Passing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs SF	295.2
Jared Goff	DET vs NO	281.6
Joe Burrow	CIN vs TB	269.1
Josh Allen	BUF @ HOU	249.6
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs CLE	243.1
Tyler Shough	NO @ DET	242.4
Caleb Williams	CHI @ CAR	241.9
Drake Maye	NE @ SEA	234.1
Sam Darnold	SEA vs NE	233.4
Jordan Love	GB @ MIN	233.0
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ LAC	229.9
Kyler Murray	MIN vs GB	229.1

Passing TDs

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs SF	2.27
Jared Goff	DET vs NO	2.17
Joe Burrow	CIN vs TB	2.13
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs CLE	1.75
Josh Allen	BUF @ HOU	1.64
Justin Herbert	LAC vs ARI	1.57
Caleb Williams	CHI @ CAR	1.52
Kyler Murray	MIN vs GB	1.48
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs ATL	1.48
Dak Prescott	DAL @ NYG	1.48
Sam Darnold	SEA vs NE	1.45
Drake Maye	NE @ SEA	1.41

Rushing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL @ IND	93.4
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ PIT	80.3
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs WAS	79.6
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs DEN	76.2
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs MIA	74.4
De'Von Achane	MIA @ LV	74.1
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs BAL	73.2
Tony Pollard	TEN vs NYJ	68.9
James Cook	BUF @ HOU	68.7
J.K. Dobbins	DEN @ KC	66.9
Chase Brown	CIN vs TB	63.2
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	61.2
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NO	61.2
Christian McCaffrey	SF @ LA	60.5
Javonte Williams	DAL @ NYG	59.8

Receiving yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	92.3
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs NE	84.6
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs TB	78.7
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NO	77.7
Chris Olave	NO @ DET	76.6
Zay Flowers	BAL @ IND	68.7
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs NYJ	68.4
Malik Nabers	NYG vs DAL	67.9
Drake London	ATL @ PIT	66.8
Colston Loveland	CHI @ CAR	66.4
A.J. Brown	NE @ SEA	65.6
Jameson Williams	DET vs NO	65.6
Parker Washington	JAX vs CLE	64.7
George Pickens	DAL @ NYG	64.5
Michael Wilson	ARI @ LAC	63.3

Receptions

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	7.24
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs TB	6.69
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NO	6.46
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs NE	6.27
Trey McBride	ARI @ LAC	6.17
Rashee Rice	KC vs DEN	6.03
Chris Olave	NO @ DET	5.93
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs NYJ	5.63
Malik Nabers	NYG vs DAL	5.20
Colston Loveland	CHI @ CAR	5.09
Khalil Shakir	BUF @ HOU	5.00
Justin Jefferson	MIN vs GB	4.99
A.J. Brown	NE @ SEA	4.97
Kyle Pitts	ATL @ PIT	4.93
Drake London	ATL @ PIT	4.89

Anytime TD

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs WAS	57%	-135
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs BAL	57%	-131
Javonte Williams	DAL @ NYG	56%	-129
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NO	55%	-123
D'Andre Swift	CHI @ CAR	51%	-102
Derrick Henry	BAL @ IND	50%	-102
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	49%	+105
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs TB	46%	+117
Chase Brown	CIN vs TB	46%	+118
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NO	45%	+125
Cam Skattebo	NYG vs DAL	44%	+129
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	43%	+131
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	JAX vs CLE	43%	+132
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs DEN	43%	+134
Christian McCaffrey	SF @ LA	42%	+135

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs NYG	294.4
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	280.2
Joe Burrow	CIN @ HOU	264.6
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	256.7
Caleb Williams	CHI vs MIN	246.3
Tyler Shough	NO @ BAL	242.5
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ DEN	242.1
Drake Maye	NE vs PIT	235.1
Dak Prescott	DAL vs WAS	233.7
Jordan Love	GB @ NYJ	231.3
Bo Nix	DEN vs JAX	231.1
Jacoby Brissett	ARI vs SEA	230.6

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs NYG	2.37
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	1.95
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	1.93
Joe Burrow	CIN @ HOU	1.82
Brock Purdy	SF vs MIA	1.65
Caleb Williams	CHI vs MIN	1.63
Dak Prescott	DAL vs WAS	1.61
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ DEN	1.57
Drake Maye	NE vs PIT	1.56
Bo Nix	DEN vs JAX	1.53
Jordan Love	GB @ NYJ	1.48
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs IND	1.47

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL vs NO	94.6
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	81.4
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ TEN	79.6
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs IND	77.1
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ KC	72.5
De'Von Achane	MIA @ SF	72.1
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ LAC	71.4
James Cook	BUF vs DET	69.7
J.K. Dobbins	DEN vs JAX	68.0
Tony Pollard	TEN vs PHI	67.2
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	63.7
Bucky Irving	TB vs CLE	62.2
Kyren Williams	LA vs NYG	62.0
Chase Brown	CIN @ HOU	61.8
Javonte Williams	DAL vs WAS	59.9

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	92.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	83.8
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	76.7
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ HOU	76.7
Chris Olave	NO @ BAL	75.7
Zay Flowers	BAL vs NO	69.5
Drake London	ATL vs CAR	68.0
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs PHI	67.2
Malik Nabers	NYG @ LA	67.1
Colston Loveland	CHI vs MIN	66.9
A.J. Brown	NE vs PIT	66.5
George Pickens	DAL vs WAS	64.9
Jameson Williams	DET @ BUF	64.7
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	64.3
Parker Washington	JAX @ DEN	63.9

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	7.24
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ HOU	6.59
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	6.44
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	6.20
Trey McBride	ARI vs SEA	6.15
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	6.07
Chris Olave	NO @ BAL	5.85
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs PHI	5.61
Malik Nabers	NYG @ LA	5.15
Khalil Shakir	BUF vs DET	5.14
Colston Loveland	CHI vs MIN	5.13
Kyle Pitts	ATL vs CAR	5.00
A.J. Brown	NE vs PIT	4.97
Drake London	ATL vs CAR	4.96
Justin Jefferson	MIN @ CHI	4.96

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	63%	-170
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ KC	61%	-155
Javonte Williams	DAL vs WAS	61%	-154
Derrick Henry	BAL vs NO	56%	-129
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	55%	-124
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs IND	53%	-115
James Cook	BUF vs DET	52%	-110
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ BUF	52%	-109
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	50%	-102
Kyren Williams	LA vs NYG	50%	-100
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ TEN	50%	-100
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	49%	+104
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ LAC	47%	+114
Cam Skattebo	NYG @ LA	45%	+121
Zach Charbonnet	SEA @ ARI	44%	+127

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ DEN	290.6
Jared Goff	DET vs NYJ	280.0
Joe Burrow	CIN @ PIT	263.2
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	254.8
Caleb Williams	CHI vs PHI	246.5
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs NE	245.4
Tyler Shough	NO vs LV	244.3
Jordan Love	GB vs ATL	235.9
Dak Prescott	DAL vs BAL	235.7
Drake Maye	NE @ JAX	233.9
Bo Nix	DEN vs LA	232.3
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs CIN	230.5

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jared Goff	DET vs NYJ	2.15
Matthew Stafford	LA @ DEN	2.14
Joe Burrow	CIN @ PIT	1.92
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	1.85
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs NE	1.73
Jordan Love	GB vs ATL	1.61
Brock Purdy	SF vs ARI	1.59
Caleb Williams	CHI vs PHI	1.56
Dak Prescott	DAL vs BAL	1.50
Tyler Shough	NO vs LV	1.50
Bo Nix	DEN vs LA	1.46
Drake Maye	NE @ JAX	1.43

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL @ DAL	93.5
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ GB	80.5
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ CHI	78.1
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ MIA	77.3
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs HOU	73.4
De'Von Achane	MIA vs KC	73.2
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ NO	72.1
James Cook	BUF vs LAC	69.6
Tony Pollard	TEN @ NYG	67.4
J.K. Dobbins	DEN vs LA	67.1
Chase Brown	CIN @ PIT	62.8
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs ARI	62.8
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NYJ	61.4
Kyren Williams	LA @ DEN	61.0
Bucky Irving	TB vs MIN	60.9

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ DEN	91.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ WAS	83.8
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	77.4
Chris Olave	NO vs LV	77.3
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ PIT	77.3
Zay Flowers	BAL @ DAL	69.6
Malik Nabers	NYG vs TEN	68.2
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ NYG	67.9
Drake London	ATL @ GB	67.8
Colston Loveland	CHI vs PHI	66.3
A.J. Brown	NE @ JAX	65.9
Jameson Williams	DET vs NYJ	65.4
Parker Washington	JAX vs NE	64.8
George Pickens	DAL vs BAL	64.3
Rashee Rice	KC @ MIA	63.9

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ DEN	7.18
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ PIT	6.59
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	6.44
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ WAS	6.21
Trey McBride	ARI @ SF	6.17
Rashee Rice	KC @ MIA	6.00
Chris Olave	NO vs LV	5.90
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ NYG	5.60
Malik Nabers	NYG vs TEN	5.17
Colston Loveland	CHI vs PHI	5.12
Khalil Shakir	BUF vs LAC	5.10
Kyle Pitts	ATL @ GB	4.98
A.J. Brown	NE @ JAX	4.95
Drake London	ATL @ GB	4.94
Justin Jefferson	MIN @ TB	4.93

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs HOU	60%	-148
Derrick Henry	BAL @ DAL	58%	-140
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs ARI	57%	-135
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NYJ	55%	-121
Javonte Williams	DAL vs BAL	54%	-118
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ MIA	54%	-118
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	53%	-114
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	53%	-112
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs PHI	52%	-110
Travis Etienne	NO vs LV	50%	-100
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ NO	50%	+101
James Cook	BUF vs LAC	49%	+103
Cam Skattebo	NYG vs TEN	49%	+103
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ CHI	47%	+112
Anthony Richardson	IND vs HOU	46%	+116

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ PHI	273.4
Jared Goff	DET @ CAR	258.7
Joe Burrow	CIN vs JAX	250.5
Josh Allen	BUF vs NE	236.8
Caleb Williams	CHI vs NYJ	228.7
Tyler Shough	NO vs ATL	227.5
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ CIN	224.4
Drake Maye	NE @ BUF	216.2
Sam Darnold	SEA vs LAC	216.0
Jordan Love	GB @ TB	215.2
Dak Prescott	DAL @ HOU	211.1
Kyler Murray	MIN vs MIA	210.7

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ PHI	1.26
Joe Burrow	CIN vs JAX	1.18
Jared Goff	DET @ CAR	1.13
Josh Allen	BUF vs NE	1.03
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ CIN	0.99
Caleb Williams	CHI vs NYJ	0.92
Drake Maye	NE @ BUF	0.90
Tyler Shough	NO vs ATL	0.88
Kyler Murray	MIN vs MIA	0.88
Bo Nix	DEN @ SF	0.88
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ NYG	0.88
Jordan Love	GB @ TB	0.87

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	92.0
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ NO	80.8
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs LA	77.5
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ LV	74.7
De'Von Achane	MIA @ MIN	73.7
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ WAS	72.8
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs KC	71.9
James Cook	BUF vs NE	67.7
Tony Pollard	TEN @ BAL	67.6
J.K. Dobbins	DEN @ SF	66.4
Chase Brown	CIN vs JAX	61.5
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs DEN	60.1
Bucky Irving	TB vs GB	59.7
Kyren Williams	LA @ PHI	59.5
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ CAR	58.9

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ PHI	82.7
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs LAC	76.1
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	68.8
Chris Olave	NO vs ATL	68.5
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ CAR	67.3
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ BAL	60.6
Drake London	ATL @ NO	60.1
Zay Flowers	BAL vs TEN	59.8
Malik Nabers	NYG vs ARI	59.5
A.J. Brown	NE @ BUF	57.9
Colston Loveland	CHI vs NYJ	57.3
Parker Washington	JAX @ CIN	55.9
Michael Wilson	ARI @ NYG	55.6
Jameson Williams	DET @ CAR	55.3
Trey McBride	ARI @ NYG	54.9

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ PHI	6.75
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	6.21
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ CAR	5.95
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs LAC	5.87
Trey McBride	ARI @ NYG	5.74
Rashee Rice	KC @ LV	5.59
Chris Olave	NO vs ATL	5.48
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ BAL	5.21
Malik Nabers	NYG vs ARI	4.77
Colston Loveland	CHI vs NYJ	4.68
Khalil Shakir	BUF vs NE	4.64
Justin Jefferson	MIN vs MIA	4.56
Kyle Pitts	ATL @ NO	4.56
A.J. Brown	NE @ BUF	4.53
Drake London	ATL @ NO	4.52

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ WAS	49%	+106
Josh Allen	BUF vs NE	47%	+112
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs KC	43%	+135
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs DEN	42%	+138
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	40%	+152
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs LA	39%	+153
Javonte Williams	DAL @ HOU	38%	+160
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	WAS vs IND	37%	+172
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ NO	37%	+174
Quinshon Judkins	CLE vs PIT	36%	+179
Jaxson Dart	NYG vs ARI	36%	+181
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ LV	36%	+182
Travis Etienne	NO vs ATL	35%	+182
Anthony Richardson	IND @ WAS	35%	+187
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ CAR	35%	+188

Read this before acting on anything above

These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.

Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.