NFL Props — Model Board

Edges

Week 2 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed

Player	Matchup	Market	Bet	Book	Book odds	Our fair odds	Edge
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rush + rec yds	Under 65.5	draftkings	-116	+4755	+48.6
Jeremiyah Love	GB vs MIN	Rushing yds	Under 38.5	betonlineag	-119	+2926	+47.7
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	fanduel	+2500	-106*	+47.6
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rush + rec yds	Under 65.5	betrivers	-113	+4755	+47.5
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rush + rec yds	Under 63.5	betmgm	-115	+3844	+47.5
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betrivers	+2400	-106*	+47.4
Jeremiyah Love	GB vs MIN	Rushing yds	Under 38.5	draftkings	-115	+2926	+47.3
Jeremiyah Love	GB vs MIN	Rushing yds	Under 39.5	betmgm	-115	+3432	+47.2
Jeremiyah Love	GB vs MIN	Rushing yds	Under 39.5	fanduel	-114	+3432	+47.2
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+2000	-106*	+46.7
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betmgm	+2000	-106*	+46.7
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	bovada	+2000	-106*	+46.7
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betonlineag	+1700	-106*	+45.9
James Cook	BUF vs HOU	Rush + rec yds	Under 95.5	betmgm	-115	+1198	+42.3
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 50.5	betonlineag	-115	+1102	+42.0
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 50.5	betrivers	-117	+1102	+42.0
Derrick Henry	BAL vs IND	Rush + rec yds	Under 89.5	draftkings	-113	+1147	+42.0
David Montgomery	HOU vs BUF	Rush + rec yds	Under 67.5	draftkings	-115	+1070	+41.9
James Cook	BUF vs HOU	Rush + rec yds	Under 93.5	draftkings	-115	+1063	+41.8
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 50.5	fanduel	-114	+1102	+41.7
Derrick Henry	BAL vs IND	Rush + rec yds	Under 88.5	betrivers	-115	+1078	+41.5
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	bovada	+2200	+118*	+41.5
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+2200	+118*	+41.5
David Montgomery	HOU vs BUF	Rush + rec yds	Under 67.5	betmgm	-115	+1070	+41.5
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 49.5	draftkings	-114	+996	+41.3
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 48.5	betmgm	-120	+902	+40.9
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 49.5	bovada	-115	+996	+40.9
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betrivers	+1500	+118*	+39.6
David Montgomery	HOU vs BUF	Rush + rec yds	Under 64.5	betrivers	-114	+861	+39.3
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	fanduel	+1300	+118*	+38.7
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betonlineag	+1300	+118*	+38.7
Trevor Etienne	NO vs DET	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betrivers	+950	+127*	+34.5
Lamar Jackson	BAL vs IND	Rushing yds	Under 38.5	fanduel	-114	+505	+33.5
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NO	Rush + rec yds	Under 122.5	betmgm	-115	+479	+32.7
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	Rushing yds	Over 2.5	fanduel	+108	-347	+32.3
Lamar Jackson	BAL vs IND	Rushing yds	Under 37.5	betrivers	-114	+459	+31.8
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NO	Rush + rec yds	Under 120.5	draftkings	-113	+443	+31.6
Jared Goff	DET vs NO	Rushing yds	Over 0.5	fanduel	+142	-236	+31.5
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs WAS	Rush + rec yds	Under 98.5	draftkings	-114	+425	+31.1
Lamar Jackson	BAL vs IND	Rushing yds	Under 36.5	betonlineag	-115	+417	+31.0

Line capture

Append-only store · every snapshot retained

30,672line observations

9snapshots

517players

1,102lines that moved

Market	Rows	Players	Books
Anytime TD	10,591	517	6
Receiving yds	6,934	170	6
Receptions	6,255	168	6
Rushing yds	3,320	84	6
Passing yds	1,486	32	6
Passing TDs	1,448	32	6
Rush + rec yds	638	40	3

Projections

All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds

Passing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs NYG	294.1
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	279.5
Joe Burrow	CIN @ HOU	264.3
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	256.8
Caleb Williams	CHI vs MIN	245.3
Tyler Shough	NO @ BAL	242.2
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ DEN	240.9
Drake Maye	NE vs PIT	235.7
Dak Prescott	DAL vs WAS	234.8
Bo Nix	DEN vs JAX	230.3
Jordan Love	GB @ NYJ	229.7
Sam Darnold	SEA @ ARI	226.6

Passing TDs

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs NYG	2.43
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	1.91
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	1.88
Joe Burrow	CIN @ HOU	1.83
Dak Prescott	DAL vs WAS	1.64
Brock Purdy	SF vs MIA	1.61
Drake Maye	NE vs PIT	1.57
Caleb Williams	CHI vs MIN	1.56
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ DEN	1.53
Sam Darnold	SEA @ ARI	1.52
Bo Nix	DEN vs JAX	1.50
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs IND	1.49

Rushing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL vs NO	94.2
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	82.2
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ TEN	79.2
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs IND	76.9
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ KC	72.7
De'Von Achane	MIA @ SF	72.6
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ LAC	70.9
James Cook	BUF vs DET	69.3
J.K. Dobbins	DEN vs JAX	68.0
Tony Pollard	TEN vs PHI	67.5
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	63.2
Kyren Williams	LA vs NYG	62.3
Chase Brown	CIN @ HOU	61.9
Bucky Irving	TB vs CLE	61.6
Javonte Williams	DAL vs WAS	59.8

Receiving yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	93.1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	85.3
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ HOU	77.0
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	76.7
Chris Olave	NO @ BAL	75.8
Zay Flowers	BAL vs NO	69.4
Drake London	ATL vs CAR	68.8
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs PHI	68.2
Malik Nabers	NYG @ LA	67.1
A.J. Brown	NE vs PIT	66.8
Colston Loveland	CHI vs MIN	66.4
George Pickens	DAL vs WAS	65.2
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	64.7
Jameson Williams	DET @ BUF	64.7
Parker Washington	JAX @ DEN	63.6

Receptions

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	7.25
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ HOU	6.60
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	6.43
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	6.24
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	6.08
Chris Olave	NO @ BAL	5.85
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs PHI	5.65
Malik Nabers	NYG @ LA	5.15
Khalil Shakir	BUF vs DET	5.12
Colston Loveland	CHI vs MIN	5.11
Kyle Pitts	ATL vs CAR	5.02
A.J. Brown	NE vs PIT	4.98
Drake London	ATL vs CAR	4.98
Justin Jefferson	MIN @ CHI	4.93
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	4.92

Anytime TD

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	62%	-164
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	60%	-151
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ KC	58%	-137
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs IND	57%	-132
Kyren Williams	LA vs NYG	56%	-126
Javonte Williams	DAL vs WAS	55%	-123
Derrick Henry	BAL vs NO	55%	-122
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	54%	-117
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	51%	-103
Zach Charbonnet	SEA @ ARI	51%	-102
James Cook	BUF vs DET	50%	+101
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	49%	+106
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ BUF	48%	+106
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	48%	+108
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	47%	+111

Read this before acting on anything above

These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.

Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.