NFL Props — Model Board

Edges

Week 1 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed

Player	Matchup	Market	Bet	Book	Book odds	Our fair odds	Edge
Amon-Ra St. Brown	NE vs SEA	Receiving yds	Under 78.5	betmgm	-115	+165	+12.3
Amon-Ra St. Brown	NE vs SEA	Receiving yds	Under 77.5	draftkings	-114	+159	+11.8
Amon-Ra St. Brown	NE vs SEA	Receiving yds	Under 77.5	betonlineag	-115	+159	+11.7
Amon-Ra St. Brown	NE vs SEA	Receiving yds	Under 77.5	bovada	-115	+159	+11.4
Amon-Ra St. Brown	NE vs SEA	Receiving yds	Under 77.5	fanduel	-114	+159	+11.4
Amon-Ra St. Brown	NE vs SEA	Receptions	Under 6.5	bovada	-120	+150	+11.1
Amon-Ra St. Brown	NE vs SEA	Receptions	Under 6.5	betmgm	-120	+150	+11.0
Amon-Ra St. Brown	NE vs SEA	Receiving yds	Under 76.5	betrivers	-117	+153	+10.7
Amon-Ra St. Brown	NE vs SEA	Receptions	Under 6.5	betonlineag	-116	+150	+10.6
Amon-Ra St. Brown	NE vs SEA	Receptions	Under 6.5	draftkings	-115	+150	+10.5
Amon-Ra St. Brown	NE vs SEA	Receptions	Under 6.5	fanduel	-114	+150	+10.1

Line capture

Append-only store · every snapshot retained

30,672line observations

9snapshots

517players

1,102lines that moved

Market	Rows	Players	Books
Anytime TD	10,591	517	6
Receiving yds	6,934	170	6
Receptions	6,255	168	6
Rushing yds	3,320	84	6
Passing yds	1,486	32	6
Passing TDs	1,448	32	6
Rush + rec yds	638	40	3

Projections

All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds

Week 1 · 2026 season · Wed 09 Sep · 1 games

Passing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Drake Maye	NE @ SEA	233.7
Sam Darnold	SEA vs NE	233.0
Drew Lock	SEA vs NE	116.5

Passing TDs

Player	Matchup	Projection
Sam Darnold	SEA vs NE	1.46
Drake Maye	NE @ SEA	1.41
Drew Lock	SEA vs NE	0.74

Rushing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE @ SEA	53.8
Emanuel Wilson	SEA vs NE	30.2
Drake Maye	NE @ SEA	29.8
Corey Kiner	NE @ SEA	19.8
George Holani	SEA vs NE	13.3
Rashid Shaheed	SEA vs NE	10.5
Drew Lock	SEA vs NE	10.1
Sam Darnold	SEA vs NE	7.4

Receiving yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs NE	84.5
A.J. Brown	NE @ SEA	65.6
Mack Hollins	NE @ SEA	46.8
Cooper Kupp	SEA vs NE	45.6
Romeo Doubs	NE @ SEA	45.3
AJ Barner	SEA vs NE	33.8
Hunter Henry	NE @ SEA	31.2
Rashid Shaheed	SEA vs NE	25.0
DeMario Douglas	NE @ SEA	24.6
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE @ SEA	23.6
George Holani	SEA vs NE	13.2

Receptions

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs NE	6.28
A.J. Brown	NE @ SEA	4.97
Cooper Kupp	SEA vs NE	3.61
Romeo Doubs	NE @ SEA	3.54
AJ Barner	SEA vs NE	3.33
Mack Hollins	NE @ SEA	3.30
Hunter Henry	NE @ SEA	2.86
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE @ SEA	2.77
DeMario Douglas	NE @ SEA	2.04
Rashid Shaheed	SEA vs NE	1.80
George Holani	SEA vs NE	1.70

Anytime TD

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs NE	36%	+178
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE @ SEA	35%	+184
A.J. Brown	NE @ SEA	32%	+216
Cooper Kupp	SEA vs NE	27%	+268
AJ Barner	SEA vs NE	27%	+269
Romeo Doubs	NE @ SEA	24%	+311
Drake Maye	NE @ SEA	19%	+420
Emanuel Wilson	SEA vs NE	19%	+433
Mack Hollins	NE @ SEA	19%	+435
Hunter Henry	NE @ SEA	18%	+441
Rashid Shaheed	SEA vs NE	13%	+667
George Holani	SEA vs NE	13%	+669
DeMario Douglas	NE @ SEA	12%	+707
Drew Lock	SEA vs NE	12%	+762
Sam Darnold	SEA vs NE	9%	+956

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs NYG	288.9
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	275.9
Dak Prescott	DAL vs WAS	262.8
Caleb Williams	CHI vs MIN	257.1
Joe Burrow	CIN @ HOU	254.0
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ DEN	252.1
Tyler Shough	NO @ BAL	243.7
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs IND	239.2
Brock Purdy	SF vs MIA	237.8
Bo Nix	DEN vs JAX	231.5
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	230.7
Jacoby Brissett	ARI vs SEA	225.3

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs NYG	2.44
Dak Prescott	DAL vs WAS	1.89
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	1.86
Brock Purdy	SF vs MIA	1.79
Joe Burrow	CIN @ HOU	1.71
Caleb Williams	CHI vs MIN	1.64
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs IND	1.64
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ DEN	1.59
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	1.55
Bo Nix	DEN vs JAX	1.52
Justin Herbert	LAC vs LV	1.43
Baker Mayfield	TB vs CLE	1.37

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL vs NO	91.6
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	87.1
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ KC	80.9
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ TEN	74.3
De'Von Achane	MIA @ SF	73.1
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	72.8
Tony Pollard	TEN vs PHI	68.2
J.K. Dobbins	DEN vs JAX	67.8
Javonte Williams	DAL vs WAS	66.4
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs IND	66.3
Kyren Williams	LA vs NYG	65.5
James Cook	BUF vs DET	65.1
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ LAC	65.0
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	61.5
Bucky Irving	TB vs CLE	61.2

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	88.8
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ HOU	78.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	76.5
Malik Nabers	NYG @ LA	75.6
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	75.0
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs WAS	74.6
George Pickens	DAL vs WAS	70.7
Chris Olave	NO @ BAL	68.4
Drake London	ATL vs CAR	67.6
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	66.0
Zay Flowers	BAL vs NO	66.0
Jaylen Waddle	DEN vs JAX	65.9
Garrett Wilson	NYJ vs GB	65.2
Jameson Williams	DET @ BUF	64.0
Mike Evans	SF vs MIA	64.0

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	7.17
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ HOU	6.60
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	6.27
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	6.14
Trey McBride	ARI vs SEA	6.13
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	5.90
Malik Nabers	NYG @ LA	5.82
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs WAS	5.54
George Kittle	SF vs MIA	5.29
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	5.26
Garrett Wilson	NYJ vs GB	5.25
Chris Olave	NO @ BAL	5.19
George Pickens	DAL vs WAS	5.19
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs PHI	5.16
Kyle Pitts	ATL vs CAR	5.10

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Kyren Williams	LA vs NYG	59%	-144
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	58%	-139
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ BUF	58%	-138
Javonte Williams	DAL vs WAS	53%	-112
Derrick Henry	BAL vs NO	51%	-106
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ KC	50%	-102
James Cook	BUF vs DET	49%	+104
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	49%	+105
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	49%	+106
Cam Skattebo	NYG @ LA	48%	+110
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	47%	+112
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	46%	+118
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs IND	46%	+118
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ TEN	45%	+121
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	45%	+123

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ DEN	284.4
Jared Goff	DET vs NYJ	276.5
Dak Prescott	DAL vs BAL	264.0
Caleb Williams	CHI vs PHI	257.7
Joe Burrow	CIN @ PIT	253.6
Tyler Shough	NO vs LV	245.1
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs CIN	242.4
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs NE	241.8
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ SF	238.0
Brock Purdy	SF vs ARI	237.6
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ MIA	233.5
Bo Nix	DEN vs LA	233.1

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ DEN	2.11
Jared Goff	DET vs NYJ	2.11
Brock Purdy	SF vs ARI	1.81
Joe Burrow	CIN @ PIT	1.81
Dak Prescott	DAL vs BAL	1.74
Caleb Williams	CHI vs PHI	1.63
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ MIA	1.56
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs CIN	1.52
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	1.51
Tyler Shough	NO vs LV	1.49
Bo Nix	DEN vs LA	1.44
Jordan Love	GB vs ATL	1.44

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL @ DAL	90.6
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ GB	85.2
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs HOU	82.0
De'Von Achane	MIA vs KC	73.8
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs ARI	73.0
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ CHI	73.0
Tony Pollard	TEN @ NYG	68.5
J.K. Dobbins	DEN vs LA	66.6
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ MIA	66.4
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ NO	66.1
Javonte Williams	DAL vs BAL	65.1
James Cook	BUF vs LAC	65.0
Kyren Williams	LA @ DEN	64.1
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NYJ	62.0
Chase Brown	CIN @ PIT	61.4

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ DEN	87.1
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ PIT	78.7
Malik Nabers	NYG vs TEN	76.8
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ WAS	76.5
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	75.9
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs BAL	73.7
George Pickens	DAL vs BAL	69.7
Chris Olave	NO vs LV	69.5
Drake London	ATL @ GB	66.6
Zay Flowers	BAL @ DAL	65.9
Jaylen Waddle	DEN vs LA	65.4
Rashee Rice	KC @ MIA	65.4
Jameson Williams	DET vs NYJ	65.0
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ DET	64.9
Trey McBride	ARI @ SF	64.7

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ DEN	7.09
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ PIT	6.61
Trey McBride	ARI @ SF	6.42
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	6.29
Rashee Rice	KC @ MIA	6.08
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ WAS	5.90
Malik Nabers	NYG vs TEN	5.85
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs BAL	5.53
George Kittle	SF vs ARI	5.29
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ DET	5.22
Chris Olave	NO vs LV	5.22
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ GB	5.22
George Pickens	DAL vs BAL	5.18
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ NYG	5.13
Kyle Pitts	ATL @ GB	5.06

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs ARI	60%	-149
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NYJ	58%	-138
Cam Skattebo	NYG vs TEN	51%	-106
Derrick Henry	BAL @ DAL	50%	-101
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs HOU	50%	+100
Javonte Williams	DAL vs BAL	50%	+101
James Cook	BUF vs LAC	49%	+104
Josh Jacobs	GB vs ATL	49%	+104
Kyren Williams	LA @ DEN	48%	+107
Chase Brown	CIN @ PIT	48%	+108
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	48%	+109
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ GB	46%	+118
Travis Etienne	NO vs LV	46%	+119
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs PHI	46%	+119
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	45%	+122

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ PHI	285.3
Jared Goff	DET @ CAR	273.6
Joe Burrow	CIN vs JAX	259.7
Dak Prescott	DAL @ HOU	258.1
Caleb Williams	CHI vs NYJ	256.2
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ CIN	254.6
Tyler Shough	NO vs ATL	246.3
Brock Purdy	SF vs DEN	239.1
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ NYG	236.9
Aaron Rodgers	PIT @ CLE	235.2
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ LV	233.5
Bo Nix	DEN @ SF	228.8

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ PHI	2.12
Joe Burrow	CIN vs JAX	1.99
Jared Goff	DET @ CAR	1.92
Caleb Williams	CHI vs NYJ	1.75
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ CIN	1.73
Brock Purdy	SF vs DEN	1.62
Dak Prescott	DAL @ HOU	1.62
Kyler Murray	MIN vs MIA	1.56
Tyler Shough	NO vs ATL	1.52
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ LV	1.50
Carson Wentz	MIN vs MIA	1.49
Aaron Rodgers	PIT @ CLE	1.46

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	91.8
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ NO	86.2
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ WAS	81.9
De'Von Achane	MIA @ MIN	73.6
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs LA	73.1
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs DEN	71.2
Tony Pollard	TEN @ BAL	67.5
J.K. Dobbins	DEN @ SF	66.6
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ LV	66.0
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs KC	65.9
Javonte Williams	DAL @ HOU	64.9
James Cook	BUF vs NE	63.9
Kyren Williams	LA @ PHI	63.8
Chase Brown	CIN vs JAX	61.8
Jaylen Warren	PIT @ CLE	61.7

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ PHI	87.3
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	79.9
Malik Nabers	NYG vs ARI	77.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs LAC	76.8
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ CAR	75.1
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ HOU	72.7
Chris Olave	NO vs ATL	69.9
George Pickens	DAL @ HOU	68.8
Drake London	ATL @ NO	67.1
Zay Flowers	BAL vs TEN	66.3
Jaylen Waddle	DEN @ SF	65.4
Trey McBride	ARI @ NYG	65.1
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ CHI	65.0
Rashee Rice	KC @ LV	65.0
Colston Loveland	CHI vs NYJ	64.7

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ PHI	7.11
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	6.69
Trey McBride	ARI @ NYG	6.42
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ CAR	6.25
Rashee Rice	KC @ LV	6.07
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs LAC	5.95
Malik Nabers	NYG vs ARI	5.86
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ HOU	5.45
George Kittle	SF vs DEN	5.28
Chris Olave	NO vs ATL	5.24
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ CHI	5.22
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ NO	5.22
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ BAL	5.15
George Pickens	DAL @ HOU	5.11
Kyle Pitts	ATL @ NO	5.06

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs DEN	62%	-165
Cam Skattebo	NYG vs ARI	61%	-156
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ CAR	59%	-142
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ WAS	55%	-123
Kyren Williams	LA @ PHI	53%	-113
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	51%	-106
Chase Brown	CIN vs JAX	50%	-100
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs NYJ	48%	+110
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	48%	+110
Josh Jacobs	GB @ TB	46%	+117
Javonte Williams	DAL @ HOU	46%	+118
J.K. Dobbins	DEN @ SF	45%	+121
Travis Etienne	NO vs ATL	45%	+122
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ NO	45%	+122
Jaxson Dart	NYG vs ARI	45%	+124

Read this before acting on anything above

These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.

Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.