NFL Props — Model Board

Edges

Week 4 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed

Player	Matchup	Market	Bet	Book	Book odds	Our fair odds	Edge
Camden Brown	CIN vs JAX	Anytime TD	To score a TD	fanduel	+2700	-125*	+52.1
Camden Brown	CIN vs JAX	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betrivers	+2200	-125*	+51.3
Camden Brown	CIN vs JAX	Anytime TD	To score a TD	bovada	+2200	-125*	+51.3
Camden Brown	CIN vs JAX	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+2200	-125*	+51.3
Camden Brown	CIN vs JAX	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betonlineag	+1900	-125*	+50.6
Jeremiyah Love	ARI vs NYG	Rush + rec yds	Under 89.5	draftkings	-112	+2289	+45.6
Jeremiyah Love	ARI vs NYG	Rush + rec yds	Under 87.5	fanduel	-113	+1976	+45.2
Jeremiyah Love	ARI vs NYG	Rush + rec yds	Under 87.5	betmgm	-115	+1976	+45.2
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CHI	Rushing yds	Under 56.5	fanduel	-113	+1882	+45.0
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CHI	Rushing yds	Under 55.5	draftkings	-114	+1690	+44.8
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CHI	Rushing yds	Under 56.5	betonlineag	-112	+1882	+44.6
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CHI	Rushing yds	Under 55.5	bovada	-115	+1690	+44.4
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	Rush + rec yds	Under 110.5	draftkings	-113	+1671	+44.4
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	Rush + rec yds	Under 109.5	fanduel	-113	+1576	+44.0
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CHI	Rushing yds	Under 54.5	betmgm	-115	+1520	+43.8
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	Rush + rec yds	Under 108.5	betmgm	-115	+1486	+43.7
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	Rush + rec yds	Under 106.5	betrivers	-118	+1324	+43.5
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CHI	Rush + rec yds	Under 72.5	draftkings	-113	+1401	+43.3
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CHI	Rushing yds	Under 54.5	betrivers	-113	+1520	+43.3
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CHI	Rush + rec yds	Under 71.5	fanduel	-113	+1299	+42.9
James Cook	BUF vs NE	Rush + rec yds	Under 100.5	draftkings	-114	+1099	+41.9
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CHI	Rush + rec yds	Under 70.5	betrivers	-113	+1206	+41.8
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CHI	Rush + rec yds	Under 69.5	betmgm	-115	+1121	+41.8
James Cook	BUF vs NE	Rush + rec yds	Under 99.5	betrivers	-114	+1039	+40.9
James Cook	BUF vs NE	Rush + rec yds	Under 98.5	betmgm	-115	+982	+40.8
Tyson Bagent	CHI vs NYJ	Passing yds	Under 200.5	betonlineag	-118	+832	+40.1
Tyson Bagent	CHI vs NYJ	Passing yds	Under 203.5	betmgm	-115	+881	+39.8
James Cook	BUF vs NE	Rush + rec yds	Under 96.5	fanduel	-113	+879	+39.8
Tyson Bagent	CHI vs NYJ	Passing yds	Under 200.5	draftkings	-114	+832	+39.7
Tyson Bagent	CHI vs NYJ	Passing yds	Under 200.5	bovada	-115	+832	+39.3
Tyson Bagent	CHI vs NYJ	Passing yds	Under 199.5	betrivers	-115	+816	+39.1
Tyson Bagent	CHI vs NYJ	Passing yds	Under 199.5	fanduel	-113	+816	+39.1
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CIN	Rush + rec yds	Under 71.5	draftkings	-111	+800	+38.5
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CIN	Rush + rec yds	Under 69.5	fanduel	-113	+702	+37.5
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CIN	Rush + rec yds	Under 69.5	betmgm	-115	+702	+37.5
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CIN	Rush + rec yds	Under 69.5	betrivers	-114	+702	+37.2
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs CAR	Rush + rec yds	Under 140.5	betmgm	-115	+648	+36.6
Tank Bigsby	PHI vs LA	Rushing yds	Over 10.5	betonlineag	+109	-443	+36.6
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs CAR	Rush + rec yds	Under 140.5	draftkings	-111	+648	+36.3
Jeremiyah Love	ARI vs NYG	Rushing yds	Under 67.5	betrivers	-115	+595	+35.6

Line capture

Append-only store · every snapshot retained

39,246line observations

11snapshots

572players

1,102lines that moved

Market	Rows	Players	Books
Anytime TD	13,034	562	6
Receiving yds	9,037	233	7
Receptions	8,165	233	7
Rushing yds	4,358	113	7
Passing yds	1,871	40	7
Passing TDs	1,831	40	7
Rush + rec yds	950	54	5

Projections

All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds

Passing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jared Goff	DET @ CAR	274.0
Matthew Stafford	LA @ PHI	273.1
Joe Burrow	CIN vs JAX	261.6
Dak Prescott	DAL @ HOU	253.7
Bryce Young	CAR vs DET	251.2
Jordan Love	GB @ TB	250.5
C.J. Stroud	HOU vs DAL	242.2
Josh Allen	BUF vs NE	240.9
Brock Purdy	SF vs DEN	236.9
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ NYG	236.3
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ LV	230.3
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ CIN	224.2

Passing TDs

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jared Goff	DET @ CAR	2.16
Joe Burrow	CIN vs JAX	2.01
Matthew Stafford	LA @ PHI	1.85
Josh Allen	BUF vs NE	1.70
Dak Prescott	DAL @ HOU	1.65
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ NYG	1.60
Brock Purdy	SF vs DEN	1.56
Bryce Young	CAR vs DET	1.54
C.J. Stroud	HOU vs DAL	1.54
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ CIN	1.50
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ LV	1.49
Jordan Love	GB @ TB	1.48

Rushing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	94.5
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ LV	88.0
James Cook	BUF vs NE	87.6
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ CAR	82.8
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ WAS	81.9
Chase Brown	CIN vs JAX	70.4
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs NYJ	67.1
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs LA	66.9
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs KC	66.6
Jaylen Warren	PIT @ CLE	65.5
Aaron Jones	MIN vs MIA	63.6
Kyren Williams	LA @ PHI	62.9
Javonte Williams	DAL @ HOU	62.0
Bucky Irving	TB vs GB	60.3
Tony Pollard	TEN @ BAL	58.4

Receiving yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs LAC	90.9
Puka Nacua	LA @ PHI	85.5
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ CAR	79.9
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ CHI	73.3
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	70.9
Zay Flowers	BAL vs TEN	70.2
Parker Washington	JAX @ CIN	68.9
Trey McBride	ARI @ NYG	67.2
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ HOU	67.2
Davante Adams	LA @ PHI	67.2
Michael Wilson	ARI @ NYG	66.9
Nico Collins	HOU vs DAL	63.0
Tee Higgins	CIN vs JAX	62.3
George Pickens	DAL @ HOU	61.7
Tetairoa McMillan	CAR vs DET	61.5

Receptions

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs LAC	6.85
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ CAR	6.66
Puka Nacua	LA @ PHI	6.56
Trey McBride	ARI @ NYG	6.40
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	6.21
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ CHI	5.53
Brock Bowers	LV vs KC	5.33
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ HOU	5.21
Michael Wilson	ARI @ NYG	5.13
George Pickens	DAL @ HOU	4.80
Zay Flowers	BAL vs TEN	4.75
Parker Washington	JAX @ CIN	4.67
Davante Adams	LA @ PHI	4.66
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ CAR	4.63
Malik Nabers	NYG vs ARI	4.56

Anytime TD

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	63%	-167
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ CAR	61%	-157
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ WAS	61%	-157
Josh Allen	BUF vs NE	56%	-128
Chase Brown	CIN vs JAX	56%	-125
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ LV	55%	-123
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs DEN	54%	-117
James Cook	BUF vs NE	52%	-109
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ CAR	51%	-106
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs KC	45%	+122
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs LAC	45%	+124
RJ Harvey	DEN @ SF	42%	+135
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	42%	+135
Javonte Williams	DAL @ HOU	42%	+139
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs NYJ	42%	+140

Read this before acting on anything above

These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.

Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.