Auto-updating · rebuilt by CI
Week 6 · 2026 season · Thu 15 Oct – Sun 18 Oct · 13 games
Last updated 19 Oct 2026, 19:42 UTCWeek 6 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed
| Player | Matchup | Market | Bet | Book | Book odds | Our fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | CAR vs PHI | Receiving yds | Under 72.5 | betonlineag | -114 | +4740003 | +50.0 |
| Mike Evans | CAR vs PHI | Receiving yds | Under 72.5 | draftkings | -112 | +4740003 | +50.0 |
| Mike Evans | CAR vs PHI | Receiving yds | Under 72.5 | fanduel | -114 | +4740003 | +50.0 |
| Mike Evans | CAR vs PHI | Receiving yds | Under 72.5 | betmgm | -115 | +4740003 | +50.0 |
| Mike Evans | CAR vs PHI | Receiving yds | Under 72.5 | betrivers | -113 | +4740003 | +49.5 |
| DJ Moore | CAR vs PHI | Receiving yds | Under 52.5 | betrivers | -115 | +3921 | +47.5 |
| Dameon Pierce | PHI vs CAR | Rush + rec yds | Under 70.5 | betrivers | -118 | +2541 | +46.7 |
| Dameon Pierce | PHI vs CAR | Rush + rec yds | Under 71.5 | draftkings | -113 | +2779 | +46.5 |
| DJ Moore | CAR vs PHI | Receiving yds | Under 49.5 | fanduel | -114 | +2641 | +46.4 |
| DJ Moore | CAR vs PHI | Receiving yds | Under 49.5 | betonlineag | -114 | +2641 | +46.4 |
| DJ Moore | CAR vs PHI | Receiving yds | Under 49.5 | draftkings | -111 | +2641 | +46.1 |
| Dameon Pierce | PHI vs CAR | Rush + rec yds | Under 69.5 | fanduel | -114 | +2325 | +45.9 |
| Tyler Allgeier | ARI vs LA | Rushing yds | Under 49.5 | betrivers | -117 | +1533 | +44.2 |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ vs NE | Rush + rec yds | Under 87.5 | betrivers | -115 | +1249 | +42.7 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL vs CLE | Rush + rec yds | Under 104.5 | draftkings | -113 | +1238 | +42.5 |
| Tyler Allgeier | ARI vs LA | Rushing yds | Under 46.5 | betmgm | -115 | +1101 | +41.7 |
| Tyler Allgeier | ARI vs LA | Rushing yds | Under 46.5 | fanduel | -114 | +1101 | +41.7 |
| Tyler Allgeier | ARI vs LA | Rushing yds | Under 46.5 | betonlineag | -114 | +1101 | +41.7 |
| Tyler Allgeier | ARI vs LA | Rushing yds | Under 46.5 | draftkings | -112 | +1101 | +41.7 |
| James Cook | BUF vs LV | Rush + rec yds | Under 105.5 | betrivers | -115 | +1071 | +41.5 |
| James Cook | BUF vs LV | Rush + rec yds | Under 105.5 | draftkings | -113 | +1071 | +41.5 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL vs CLE | Rush + rec yds | Under 101.5 | betmgm | -115 | +1045 | +41.3 |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ vs NE | Rush + rec yds | Under 85.5 | draftkings | -111 | +1099 | +41.2 |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ vs NE | Rush + rec yds | Under 84.5 | fanduel | -114 | +1032 | +41.2 |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ vs NE | Rush + rec yds | Under 84.5 | betmgm | -115 | +1032 | +41.2 |
| James Cook | BUF vs LV | Rush + rec yds | Under 104.5 | betmgm | -115 | +1014 | +41.0 |
| James Cook | BUF vs LV | Rush + rec yds | Under 104.5 | fanduel | -114 | +1014 | +40.9 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL vs CLE | Rush + rec yds | Under 100.5 | fanduel | -114 | +989 | +40.8 |
| Dameon Pierce | PHI vs CAR | Rushing yds | Under 56.5 | betrivers | -114 | +1019 | +40.8 |
| Dameon Pierce | PHI vs CAR | Rushing yds | Under 56.5 | draftkings | -110 | +1019 | +40.6 |
| Dameon Pierce | PHI vs CAR | Rushing yds | Under 54.5 | betonlineag | -114 | +850 | +39.5 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL vs CLE | Rush + rec yds | Under 96.5 | betrivers | -114 | +796 | +38.5 |
| Jayden Daniels | TB vs PIT | Rushing yds | Under 39.5 | draftkings | -109 | +769 | +37.9 |
| Jayden Daniels | TB vs PIT | Rushing yds | Under 38.5 | betrivers | -118 | +691 | +37.9 |
| Dameon Pierce | PHI vs CAR | Rushing yds | Under 52.5 | fanduel | -114 | +712 | +37.7 |
| Jayden Daniels | TB vs PIT | Rushing yds | Under 37.5 | fanduel | -114 | +621 | +36.1 |
| Jayden Daniels | TB vs PIT | Rushing yds | Under 37.5 | betonlineag | -112 | +621 | +35.8 |
| Jayden Daniels | TB vs PIT | Rushing yds | Under 37.5 | betmgm | -111 | +621 | +35.2 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs HOU | Rush + rec yds | Under 79.5 | draftkings | -114 | +557 | +35.0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND vs TEN | Rush + rec yds | Under 119.5 | betrivers | -108 | +634 | +33.9 |
Append-only store · every snapshot retained
| Market | Rows | Players | Books |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 20,967 | 591 | 6 |
| Receiving yds | 13,789 | 262 | 7 |
| Receptions | 12,437 | 264 | 7 |
| Rushing yds | 6,764 | 127 | 7 |
| Passing yds | 3,015 | 42 | 7 |
| Passing TDs | 2,971 | 42 | 7 |
| Rush + rec yds | 1,624 | 62 | 6 |
All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | LA vs ARI | 310.5 |
| Jordan Love | GB vs DAL | 275.2 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL @ GB | 264.8 |
| Bryce Young | CAR @ PHI | 257.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI @ LA | 249.7 |
| Kirk Cousins | LV vs BUF | 245.8 |
| Tyler Shough | NO @ NYG | 236.9 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU @ JAX | 236.7 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX vs HOU | 236.6 |
| Drake Maye | NE vs NYJ | 234.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC vs LAC | 232.6 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI @ ATL | 223.5 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | LA vs ARI | 2.71 |
| Jordan Love | GB vs DAL | 1.85 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL @ GB | 1.75 |
| Bryce Young | CAR @ PHI | 1.65 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI @ LA | 1.59 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX vs HOU | 1.57 |
| Kirk Cousins | LV vs BUF | 1.55 |
| Drake Maye | NE vs NYJ | 1.54 |
| Tyler Shough | NO @ NYG | 1.53 |
| Josh Allen | BUF @ LV | 1.51 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC vs LAC | 1.49 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI @ ATL | 1.42 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | KC vs LAC | 97.6 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL vs CHI | 91.2 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL @ CLE | 88.5 |
| James Cook | BUF @ LV | 88.3 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT @ TB | 76.4 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND vs TEN | 75.9 |
| Bucky Irving | TB vs PIT | 69.5 |
| Kyren Williams | LA vs ARI | 68.1 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL @ GB | 65.8 |
| Tony Pollard | TEN @ IND | 62.3 |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR @ PHI | 59.7 |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI @ ATL | 59.6 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs HOU | 58.0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN vs SEA | 57.1 |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV vs BUF | 56.1 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LA vs ARI | 99.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA @ DEN | 86.4 |
| Chris Olave | NO @ NYG | 83.4 |
| Drake London | ATL vs CHI | 81.0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL @ GB | 74.7 |
| Michael Wilson | ARI @ LA | 72.4 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ @ NE | 71.9 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL @ CLE | 69.9 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR @ PHI | 67.0 |
| Nico Collins | HOU @ JAX | 66.3 |
| Malik Nabers | NYG vs NO | 66.3 |
| George Pickens | DAL @ GB | 65.5 |
| Brock Bowers | LV vs BUF | 64.9 |
| Trey McBride | ARI @ LA | 64.6 |
| Christian Watson | GB vs DAL | 64.5 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LA vs ARI | 7.83 |
| Trey McBride | ARI @ LA | 6.44 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA @ DEN | 6.35 |
| Chris Olave | NO @ NYG | 6.18 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL @ GB | 5.88 |
| Drake London | ATL vs CHI | 5.81 |
| Michael Wilson | ARI @ LA | 5.70 |
| Brock Bowers | LV vs BUF | 5.69 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ @ NE | 5.45 |
| Malik Nabers | NYG vs NO | 5.39 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL @ CLE | 5.28 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR @ PHI | 4.99 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI vs CAR | 4.95 |
| Nico Collins | HOU @ JAX | 4.91 |
| George Pickens | DAL @ GB | 4.88 |
| Player | Matchup | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | DAL @ GB | 68% | -208 |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV vs BUF | 65% | -186 |
| James Cook | BUF @ LV | 64% | -181 |
| Puka Nacua | LA vs ARI | 61% | -154 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL vs CHI | 59% | -143 |
| Kyren Williams | LA vs ARI | 56% | -128 |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI @ ATL | 53% | -113 |
| Josh Allen | BUF @ LV | 52% | -111 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND vs TEN | 51% | -104 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE vs NYJ | 50% | -101 |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC vs LAC | 48% | +109 |
| Davante Adams | LA vs ARI | 47% | +112 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL @ CLE | 45% | +123 |
| Brock Bowers | LV vs BUF | 42% | +136 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs HOU | 41% | +142 |
These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.
Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.