NFL Props — Model Board

Edges

Week 1 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed

Player	Matchup	Market	Bet	Book	Book odds	Our fair odds	Edge
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rush + rec yds	Under 65.5	draftkings	-116	+4429	+48.4
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	bovada	+2200	-111*	+48.3
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+2200	-111*	+48.3
Jeremiyah Love	GB vs MIN	Rushing yds	Under 38.5	betonlineag	-119	+2928	+47.7
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rush + rec yds	Under 65.5	betrivers	-113	+4429	+47.4
Jeremiyah Love	GB vs MIN	Rushing yds	Under 38.5	draftkings	-115	+2928	+47.3
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rush + rec yds	Under 63.5	betmgm	-115	+3592	+47.3
Jeremiyah Love	GB vs MIN	Rushing yds	Under 39.5	betmgm	-115	+3435	+47.2
Jeremiyah Love	GB vs MIN	Rushing yds	Under 39.5	fanduel	-114	+3435	+47.2
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betrivers	+1500	-111*	+46.4
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	fanduel	+1300	-111*	+45.5
Cam Brown	CIN vs TB	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betonlineag	+1300	-111*	+45.5
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	fanduel	+2500	+109*	+44.0
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betrivers	+2400	+109*	+43.9
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+2000	+109*	+43.1
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betmgm	+2000	+109*	+43.1
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	bovada	+2000	+109*	+43.1
James Cook	BUF vs HOU	Rush + rec yds	Under 95.5	betmgm	-115	+1205	+42.3
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betonlineag	+1700	+109*	+42.3
Derrick Henry	BAL vs IND	Rush + rec yds	Under 89.5	draftkings	-113	+1164	+42.1
David Montgomery	HOU vs BUF	Rush + rec yds	Under 67.5	draftkings	-115	+1072	+41.9
James Cook	BUF vs HOU	Rush + rec yds	Under 93.5	draftkings	-115	+1069	+41.9
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 50.5	betonlineag	-115	+1060	+41.7
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 50.5	betrivers	-117	+1060	+41.7
Derrick Henry	BAL vs IND	Rush + rec yds	Under 88.5	betrivers	-115	+1093	+41.6
David Montgomery	HOU vs BUF	Rush + rec yds	Under 67.5	betmgm	-115	+1072	+41.5
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 50.5	fanduel	-114	+1060	+41.4
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 49.5	draftkings	-114	+960	+41.0
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 48.5	betmgm	-120	+869	+40.6
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 49.5	bovada	-115	+960	+40.6
David Montgomery	HOU vs BUF	Rush + rec yds	Under 64.5	betrivers	-114	+863	+39.3
Lamar Jackson	BAL vs IND	Rushing yds	Under 38.5	fanduel	-114	+505	+33.5
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NO	Rush + rec yds	Under 122.5	betmgm	-115	+482	+32.8
Trevor Etienne	NO vs DET	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betrivers	+950	+138*	+32.6
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	Rushing yds	Over 2.5	fanduel	+108	-343	+32.1
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs WAS	Rush + rec yds	Under 98.5	draftkings	-114	+444	+31.8
Lamar Jackson	BAL vs IND	Rushing yds	Under 37.5	betrivers	-114	+459	+31.8
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NO	Rush + rec yds	Under 120.5	draftkings	-113	+446	+31.7
Jared Goff	DET vs NO	Rushing yds	Over 0.5	fanduel	+142	-235	+31.4
Lamar Jackson	BAL vs IND	Rushing yds	Under 36.5	betonlineag	-115	+417	+31.0

Line capture

Append-only store · every snapshot retained

30,672line observations

9snapshots

517players

1,102lines that moved

Market	Rows	Players	Books
Anytime TD	10,591	517	6
Receiving yds	6,934	170	6
Receptions	6,255	168	6
Rushing yds	3,320	84	6
Passing yds	1,486	32	6
Passing TDs	1,448	32	6
Rush + rec yds	638	40	3

Projections

All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds

Week 1 · 2026 season · Wed 09 Sep – Sun 13 Sep · 15 games

Passing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs SF	294.5
Jared Goff	DET vs NO	281.2
Joe Burrow	CIN vs TB	269.3
Josh Allen	BUF @ HOU	249.2
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs CLE	243.1
Tyler Shough	NO @ DET	243.1
Caleb Williams	CHI @ CAR	242.1
Drake Maye	NE @ SEA	233.3
Jordan Love	GB @ MIN	232.8
Sam Darnold	SEA vs NE	232.7
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ LAC	229.9
Kyler Murray	MIN vs GB	229.4

Passing TDs

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs SF	2.26
Jared Goff	DET vs NO	2.16
Joe Burrow	CIN vs TB	2.13
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs CLE	1.74
Josh Allen	BUF @ HOU	1.64
Justin Herbert	LAC vs ARI	1.57
Caleb Williams	CHI @ CAR	1.51
Kyler Murray	MIN vs GB	1.48
Dak Prescott	DAL @ NYG	1.48
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs ATL	1.48
Sam Darnold	SEA vs NE	1.45
Jordan Love	GB @ MIN	1.40

Rushing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL @ IND	93.3
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ PIT	80.5
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs WAS	79.6
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs MIA	74.3
De'Von Achane	MIA @ LV	74.2
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs BAL	73.3
James Cook	BUF @ HOU	68.9
Tony Pollard	TEN vs NYJ	68.7
Chase Brown	CIN vs TB	63.2
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	61.3
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NO	61.2
Christian McCaffrey	SF @ LA	60.7
Javonte Williams	DAL @ NYG	59.9
Bucky Irving	TB @ CIN	59.7
Breece Hall	NYJ @ TEN	59.3

Receiving yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	92.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs NE	84.4
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs TB	78.8
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NO	77.8
Chris Olave	NO @ DET	76.4
Zay Flowers	BAL @ IND	68.7
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs NYJ	68.3
Malik Nabers	NYG vs DAL	67.9
Drake London	ATL @ PIT	66.9
Colston Loveland	CHI @ CAR	66.6
Jameson Williams	DET vs NO	65.8
A.J. Brown	NE @ SEA	65.6
Parker Washington	JAX vs CLE	64.8
George Pickens	DAL @ NYG	64.5
Michael Wilson	ARI @ LAC	63.3

Receptions

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	7.26
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs TB	6.69
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NO	6.47
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs NE	6.27
Trey McBride	ARI @ LAC	6.16
Chris Olave	NO @ DET	5.92
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs NYJ	5.63
Malik Nabers	NYG vs DAL	5.19
Colston Loveland	CHI @ CAR	5.10
Khalil Shakir	BUF @ HOU	5.01
Justin Jefferson	MIN vs GB	4.99
A.J. Brown	NE @ SEA	4.97
Kyle Pitts	ATL @ PIT	4.93
Drake London	ATL @ PIT	4.90
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ NYG	4.88

Anytime TD

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs BAL	55%	-120
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NO	53%	-114
Chase Brown	CIN vs TB	53%	-111
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs WAS	52%	-109
Derrick Henry	BAL @ IND	52%	-108
Christian McCaffrey	SF @ LA	49%	+103
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	48%	+109
Cam Skattebo	NYG vs DAL	48%	+110
Javonte Williams	DAL @ NYG	47%	+111
Rico Dowdle	PIT vs ATL	46%	+115
D'Andre Swift	CHI @ CAR	45%	+125
Josh Allen	BUF @ HOU	45%	+125
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	43%	+130
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs MIA	43%	+132
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	JAX vs CLE	43%	+134

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs NYG	294.3
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	279.5
Joe Burrow	CIN @ HOU	264.5
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	256.6
Caleb Williams	CHI vs MIN	247.0
Tyler Shough	NO @ BAL	243.3
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ DEN	242.0
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs IND	239.3
Drake Maye	NE vs PIT	234.3
Dak Prescott	DAL vs WAS	233.6
Bo Nix	DEN vs JAX	231.4
Jordan Love	GB @ NYJ	231.1

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs NYG	2.38
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	1.92
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	1.91
Joe Burrow	CIN @ HOU	1.82
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs IND	1.66
Caleb Williams	CHI vs MIN	1.66
Brock Purdy	SF vs MIA	1.65
Dak Prescott	DAL vs WAS	1.59
Drake Maye	NE vs PIT	1.56
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ DEN	1.55
Bo Nix	DEN vs JAX	1.53
Justin Herbert	LAC vs LV	1.49

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL vs NO	94.4
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	81.6
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ TEN	79.6
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ KC	72.8
De'Von Achane	MIA @ SF	72.3
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ LAC	71.2
James Cook	BUF vs DET	69.5
J.K. Dobbins	DEN vs JAX	67.7
Tony Pollard	TEN vs PHI	67.0
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs IND	66.4
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	63.8
Bucky Irving	TB vs CLE	62.2
Kyren Williams	LA vs NYG	62.0
Chase Brown	CIN @ HOU	61.8
Javonte Williams	DAL vs WAS	59.7

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	93.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	84.0
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ HOU	76.9
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	76.9
Chris Olave	NO @ BAL	75.7
Zay Flowers	BAL vs NO	69.6
Drake London	ATL vs CAR	68.3
Malik Nabers	NYG @ LA	67.4
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs PHI	67.4
Colston Loveland	CHI vs MIN	67.4
A.J. Brown	NE vs PIT	66.5
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	66.2
Jaylen Waddle	DEN vs JAX	66.1
George Pickens	DAL vs WAS	64.9
Jameson Williams	DET @ BUF	64.9

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	7.26
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ HOU	6.60
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	6.44
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	6.21
Trey McBride	ARI vs SEA	6.17
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	6.16
Chris Olave	NO @ BAL	5.86
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs PHI	5.62
Malik Nabers	NYG @ LA	5.15
Colston Loveland	CHI vs MIN	5.15
Khalil Shakir	BUF vs DET	5.13
Kyle Pitts	ATL vs CAR	5.00
Drake London	ATL vs CAR	4.97
Justin Jefferson	MIN @ CHI	4.97
A.J. Brown	NE vs PIT	4.97

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	59%	-146
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ KC	57%	-134
Javonte Williams	DAL vs WAS	57%	-133
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ BUF	56%	-129
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	55%	-120
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	53%	-112
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ TEN	52%	-110
Kyren Williams	LA vs NYG	51%	-106
Derrick Henry	BAL vs NO	51%	-104
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	49%	+104
Cam Skattebo	NYG @ LA	48%	+110
James Cook	BUF vs DET	47%	+112
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	46%	+118
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	45%	+123
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	44%	+128

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ DEN	270.1
Jared Goff	DET vs NYJ	259.5
Joe Burrow	CIN @ PIT	243.6
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	233.7
Caleb Williams	CHI vs PHI	226.1
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs NE	226.1
Tyler Shough	NO vs LV	225.2
Jordan Love	GB vs ATL	216.4
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ MIA	215.0
Drake Maye	NE @ JAX	212.9
Bo Nix	DEN vs LA	212.3
Dak Prescott	DAL vs BAL	212.0

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ DEN	1.24
Jared Goff	DET vs NYJ	1.16
Joe Burrow	CIN @ PIT	1.14
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	1.02
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs NE	1.02
Bo Nix	DEN vs LA	0.91
Caleb Williams	CHI vs PHI	0.91
Drake Maye	NE @ JAX	0.89
Jordan Love	GB vs ATL	0.89
Tyler Shough	NO vs LV	0.88
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs CIN	0.88
Dak Prescott	DAL vs BAL	0.88

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL @ DAL	92.4
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ GB	81.6
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ CHI	78.0
De'Von Achane	MIA vs KC	74.6
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs HOU	73.9
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ NO	72.3
James Cook	BUF vs LAC	68.6
Tony Pollard	TEN @ NYG	68.0
J.K. Dobbins	DEN vs LA	67.0
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ MIA	64.8
Chase Brown	CIN @ PIT	62.2
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs ARI	61.1
Kyren Williams	LA @ DEN	60.3
Bucky Irving	TB vs MIN	60.3
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NYJ	59.8

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ DEN	82.8
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ WAS	75.7
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ PIT	68.6
Chris Olave	NO vs LV	68.2
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	67.6
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ NYG	60.5
Drake London	ATL @ GB	60.2
Malik Nabers	NYG vs TEN	59.5
Zay Flowers	BAL @ DAL	59.4
A.J. Brown	NE @ JAX	57.8
Jaylen Waddle	DEN vs LA	57.5
Colston Loveland	CHI vs PHI	57.4
Rashee Rice	KC @ MIA	56.1
Parker Washington	JAX vs NE	56.1
Jameson Williams	DET vs NYJ	55.6

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ DEN	6.80
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ PIT	6.20
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	6.03
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ WAS	5.85
Trey McBride	ARI @ SF	5.77
Rashee Rice	KC @ MIA	5.69
Chris Olave	NO vs LV	5.51
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ NYG	5.24
Malik Nabers	NYG vs TEN	4.79
Colston Loveland	CHI vs PHI	4.72
Khalil Shakir	BUF vs LAC	4.67
Kyle Pitts	ATL @ GB	4.59
A.J. Brown	NE @ JAX	4.56
Drake London	ATL @ GB	4.56
Justin Jefferson	MIN @ TB	4.55

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs HOU	46%	+116
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ NO	40%	+150
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs ARI	39%	+156
Anthony Richardson	IND vs HOU	39%	+159
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ CHI	36%	+175
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	36%	+176
Derrick Henry	BAL @ DAL	36%	+179
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ GB	36%	+179
Quinshon Judkins	CLE vs CAR	35%	+189
Jaxson Dart	NYG vs TEN	34%	+196
RJ Harvey	DEN vs LA	33%	+200
J.K. Dobbins	DEN vs LA	33%	+202
Breece Hall	NYJ @ DET	32%	+211
James Cook	BUF vs LAC	32%	+212
Travis Etienne	NO vs LV	32%	+212

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ PHI	270.1
Jared Goff	DET @ CAR	255.4
Joe Burrow	CIN vs JAX	247.7
Josh Allen	BUF vs NE	233.7
Caleb Williams	CHI vs NYJ	226.1
Tyler Shough	NO vs ATL	225.2
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ CIN	222.0
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ LV	215.0
Drake Maye	NE @ BUF	212.9
Sam Darnold	SEA vs LAC	212.6
Jordan Love	GB @ TB	212.3
Kyler Murray	MIN vs MIA	208.3

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA @ PHI	1.24
Joe Burrow	CIN vs JAX	1.18
Jared Goff	DET @ CAR	1.12
Josh Allen	BUF vs NE	1.02
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ CIN	0.98
Caleb Williams	CHI vs NYJ	0.91
Drake Maye	NE @ BUF	0.89
Tyler Shough	NO vs ATL	0.88
Bo Nix	DEN @ SF	0.88
Kyler Murray	MIN vs MIA	0.88
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ LV	0.88
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ NYG	0.87

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	92.5
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ NO	81.6
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs LA	78.1
De'Von Achane	MIA @ MIN	74.5
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ WAS	73.8
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs KC	72.4
James Cook	BUF vs NE	68.6
Tony Pollard	TEN @ BAL	68.0
J.K. Dobbins	DEN @ SF	66.9
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ LV	64.8
Chase Brown	CIN vs JAX	62.3
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs DEN	61.1
Kyren Williams	LA @ PHI	60.3
Bucky Irving	TB vs GB	60.3
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ CAR	59.7

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ PHI	82.8
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs LAC	75.9
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	68.8
Chris Olave	NO vs ATL	68.2
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ CAR	67.4
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ BAL	60.5
Drake London	ATL @ NO	60.2
Zay Flowers	BAL vs TEN	59.6
Malik Nabers	NYG vs ARI	59.5
A.J. Brown	NE @ BUF	57.8
Colston Loveland	CHI vs NYJ	57.4
Jaylen Waddle	DEN @ SF	57.3
Rashee Rice	KC @ LV	56.1
Parker Washington	JAX @ CIN	55.9
Michael Wilson	ARI @ NYG	55.6

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ PHI	6.80
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	6.25
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ CAR	5.98
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs LAC	5.90
Trey McBride	ARI @ NYG	5.77
Rashee Rice	KC @ LV	5.69
Chris Olave	NO vs ATL	5.51
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ BAL	5.24
Malik Nabers	NYG vs ARI	4.79
Colston Loveland	CHI vs NYJ	4.72
Khalil Shakir	BUF vs NE	4.67
Justin Jefferson	MIN vs MIA	4.59
Kyle Pitts	ATL @ NO	4.59
A.J. Brown	NE @ BUF	4.56
Drake London	ATL @ NO	4.56

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ WAS	46%	+116
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs KC	40%	+150
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs DEN	39%	+156
Anthony Richardson	IND @ WAS	37%	+167
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs LA	36%	+175
Josh Allen	BUF vs NE	36%	+176
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	36%	+179
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ NO	36%	+179
Quinshon Judkins	CLE vs PIT	35%	+189
Jaxson Dart	NYG vs ARI	34%	+196
RJ Harvey	DEN @ SF	33%	+200
J.K. Dobbins	DEN @ SF	33%	+202
Breece Hall	NYJ @ CHI	32%	+211
James Cook	BUF vs NE	32%	+212
Travis Etienne	NO vs ATL	32%	+212

Read this before acting on anything above

These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.

Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.