Auto-updating · rebuilt by CI
Week 6 · 2026 season · Thu 15 Oct · 1 games
Last updated 16 Oct 2026, 17:51 UTCWeek 6 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed
| Player | Matchup | Market | Bet | Book | Book odds | Our fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tory Horton | SEA vs DEN | Receiving yds | Over 4.5 | draftkings | -109 | -485 | +33.5 |
| Tory Horton | SEA vs DEN | Receiving yds | Over 4.5 | betonlineag | -112 | -485 | +33.2 |
| Tory Horton | SEA vs DEN | Receiving yds | Over 4.5 | betmgm | -115 | -485 | +32.9 |
| Tory Horton | SEA vs DEN | Receiving yds | Over 5.5 | fanduel | -114 | -445 | +31.7 |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA vs DEN | Rush + rec yds | Under 80.5 | fanduel | -114 | +422 | +30.8 |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA vs DEN | Rush + rec yds | Under 79.5 | betrivers | -117 | +401 | +30.4 |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA vs DEN | Rush + rec yds | Under 79.5 | draftkings | -113 | +401 | +30.1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA vs DEN | Rush + rec yds | Under 79.5 | betmgm | -115 | +401 | +30.1 |
| RJ Harvey | DEN vs SEA | Rush + rec yds | Over 37.5 | betmgm | -115 | -346 | +27.6 |
| RJ Harvey | DEN vs SEA | Rush + rec yds | Over 38.5 | fanduel | -114 | -332 | +26.9 |
| RJ Harvey | DEN vs SEA | Rush + rec yds | Over 38.5 | betrivers | -117 | -332 | +26.6 |
| RJ Harvey | DEN vs SEA | Rush + rec yds | Over 39.5 | draftkings | -114 | -319 | +25.8 |
| George Holani | SEA vs DEN | Rush + rec yds | Over 24.5 | betrivers | -114 | -262 | +22.7 |
| George Holani | SEA vs DEN | Rush + rec yds | Over 25.5 | betmgm | -111 | -249 | +22.3 |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA vs DEN | Rushing yds | Under 67.5 | betrivers | -115 | +259 | +22.2 |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA vs DEN | Rushing yds | Under 66.5 | betonlineag | -115 | +246 | +21.4 |
| George Holani | SEA vs DEN | Rush + rec yds | Over 25.5 | fanduel | -115 | -249 | +21.2 |
| George Holani | SEA vs DEN | Rush + rec yds | Over 25.5 | draftkings | -114 | -249 | +21.2 |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA vs DEN | Rushing yds | Under 66.5 | betmgm | -115 | +246 | +21.1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA vs DEN | Rushing yds | Under 66.5 | fanduel | -114 | +246 | +21.1 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN vs SEA | Receiving yds | Over 11.5 | draftkings | -110 | -240 | +21.0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN vs SEA | Receiving yds | Over 11.5 | fanduel | -114 | -240 | +20.6 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN vs SEA | Receiving yds | Over 11.5 | betonlineag | -114 | -240 | +20.6 |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA vs DEN | Rushing yds | Under 65.5 | draftkings | -111 | +233 | +19.8 |
| George Holani | SEA vs DEN | Receiving yds | Over 8.5 | draftkings | -108 | -208 | +18.4 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN vs SEA | Receiving yds | Over 12.5 | betrivers | -118 | -221 | +18.4 |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA vs DEN | Receiving yds | Over 20.5 | fanduel | -114 | -213 | +18.1 |
| George Holani | SEA vs DEN | Receiving yds | Over 8.5 | betonlineag | -114 | -208 | +17.5 |
| George Holani | SEA vs DEN | Receiving yds | Over 8.5 | fanduel | -114 | -208 | +17.5 |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA vs DEN | Receiving yds | Over 20.5 | draftkings | -115 | -213 | +17.4 |
| RJ Harvey | DEN vs SEA | Rushing yds | Over 13.5 | betmgm | -115 | -204 | +17.1 |
| George Holani | SEA vs DEN | Receiving yds | Over 8.5 | betmgm | -120 | -208 | +16.5 |
| George Holani | SEA vs DEN | Receiving yds | Over 9.5 | betrivers | -112 | -189 | +16.2 |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA vs DEN | Receiving yds | Over 22.5 | betrivers | -112 | -187 | +15.9 |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA vs DEN | Receiving yds | Over 22.5 | betmgm | -111 | -187 | +15.9 |
| RJ Harvey | DEN vs SEA | Rushing yds | Over 14.5 | draftkings | -112 | -188 | +15.2 |
| RJ Harvey | DEN vs SEA | Rushing yds | Over 14.5 | betonlineag | -114 | -188 | +15.2 |
| RJ Harvey | DEN vs SEA | Rushing yds | Over 14.5 | fanduel | -114 | -188 | +15.2 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN vs SEA | Receptions | Over 1.5 | draftkings | +124 | -133 | +15.0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN vs SEA | Receptions | Over 1.5 | fanduel | +120 | -133 | +14.6 |
Append-only store · every snapshot retained
| Market | Rows | Players | Books |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 19,227 | 581 | 6 |
| Receiving yds | 12,459 | 250 | 7 |
| Receptions | 11,256 | 252 | 7 |
| Rushing yds | 6,120 | 118 | 7 |
| Passing yds | 2,757 | 41 | 7 |
| Passing TDs | 2,711 | 41 | 7 |
| Rush + rec yds | 1,408 | 59 | 6 |
All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | SEA @ DEN | 215.9 |
| Bo Nix | DEN vs SEA | 210.3 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | SEA @ DEN | 1.22 |
| Bo Nix | DEN vs SEA | 1.15 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN vs SEA | 57.1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA @ DEN | 49.1 |
| RJ Harvey | DEN vs SEA | 22.0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | SEA @ DEN | 19.7 |
| George Holani | SEA @ DEN | 17.7 |
| Bo Nix | DEN vs SEA | 13.2 |
| Rashid Shaheed | SEA @ DEN | 9.7 |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN vs SEA | 9.4 |
| Tyler Badie | DEN vs SEA | 7.1 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA @ DEN | 6.6 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA @ DEN | 86.5 |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN vs SEA | 43.4 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN vs SEA | 39.8 |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA @ DEN | 32.1 |
| AJ Barner | SEA @ DEN | 31.9 |
| Rashid Shaheed | SEA @ DEN | 29.4 |
| RJ Harvey | DEN vs SEA | 26.7 |
| Tory Horton | SEA @ DEN | 24.5 |
| Evan Engram | DEN vs SEA | 22.8 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN vs SEA | 22.3 |
| Troy Franklin | DEN vs SEA | 21.8 |
| George Holani | SEA @ DEN | 16.2 |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA @ DEN | 15.0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN vs SEA | 9.9 |
| Eric Saubert | SEA @ DEN | 9.7 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA @ DEN | 6.36 |
| RJ Harvey | DEN vs SEA | 3.79 |
| AJ Barner | SEA @ DEN | 3.38 |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN vs SEA | 3.37 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN vs SEA | 3.10 |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA @ DEN | 2.70 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN vs SEA | 2.58 |
| Evan Engram | DEN vs SEA | 2.37 |
| George Holani | SEA @ DEN | 2.14 |
| Rashid Shaheed | SEA @ DEN | 2.08 |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA @ DEN | 2.03 |
| Troy Franklin | DEN vs SEA | 1.78 |
| Tory Horton | SEA @ DEN | 1.74 |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN vs SEA | 1.60 |
| Tyler Badie | DEN vs SEA | 1.52 |
| Player | Matchup | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA @ DEN | 35% | +185 |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA @ DEN | 31% | +218 |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN vs SEA | 27% | +275 |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA @ DEN | 22% | +353 |
| AJ Barner | SEA @ DEN | 22% | +355 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN vs SEA | 20% | +391 |
| Rashid Shaheed | SEA @ DEN | 20% | +396 |
| RJ Harvey | DEN vs SEA | 18% | +442 |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN vs SEA | 18% | +449 |
| Tory Horton | SEA @ DEN | 16% | +506 |
| Bo Nix | DEN vs SEA | 16% | +511 |
| Evan Engram | DEN vs SEA | 15% | +572 |
| George Holani | SEA @ DEN | 14% | +596 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN vs SEA | 14% | +610 |
| Troy Franklin | DEN vs SEA | 14% | +626 |
These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.
Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.