NFL Props — Model Board

Edges

Week 1 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed

Player	Matchup	Market	Bet	Book	Book odds	Our fair odds	Edge
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	fanduel	+2500	-109*	+48.4
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betrivers	+2400	-109*	+48.2
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	draftkings	+2000	-109*	+47.5
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betmgm	+2000	-109*	+47.5
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	bovada	+2000	-109*	+47.5
Ke'Shawn Williams	LA vs SF	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betonlineag	+1700	-109*	+46.7
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	Rushing yds	Over 2.5	fanduel	+108	-344	+32.1
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	Rushing yds	Over 2.5	bovada	-105	-344	+29.5
Matthew Stafford	LA vs SF	Rushing yds	Over 0.5	fanduel	+154	-199	+29.4
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	Rushing yds	Over 2.5	draftkings	-104	-344	+29.1
Demarcus Robinson	SF vs LA	Receiving yds	Over 11.5	bovada	-110	-343	+28.4
Demarcus Robinson	SF vs LA	Receiving yds	Over 11.5	draftkings	-108	-343	+28.3
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	Rush + rec yds	Under 71.5	betmgm	-115	+356	+28.1
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	Rush + rec yds	Under 71.5	draftkings	-111	+356	+27.8
Demarcus Robinson	SF vs LA	Receiving yds	Over 11.5	betonlineag	-112	-343	+27.7
Demarcus Robinson	SF vs LA	Receiving yds	Over 11.5	fanduel	-113	-343	+27.4
Demarcus Robinson	SF vs LA	Receiving yds	Over 12.5	betrivers	-110	-318	+27.2
Matthew Stafford	LA vs SF	Rushing yds	Over 0.5	draftkings	+128	-199	+25.0
Matthew Stafford	LA vs SF	Rushing yds	Over 0.5	bovada	+125	-199	+24.9
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	Rush + rec yds	Under 67.5	betrivers	-117	+290	+24.6
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	Receiving yds	Over 10.5	betrivers	-110	-268	+23.9
Colby Parkinson	LA vs SF	Receiving yds	Over 18.5	fanduel	-113	-273	+23.2
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	Receiving yds	Over 10.5	fanduel	-113	-268	+22.8
Colby Parkinson	LA vs SF	Receiving yds	Over 19.5	betrivers	-112	-256	+22.7
Mitchell Evans	SF vs LA	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betrivers	+1600	+254*	+22.4
Colby Parkinson	LA vs SF	Receiving yds	Over 19.5	draftkings	-110	-256	+22.3
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	Receiving yds	Over 11.5	bovada	-110	-247	+22.2
Colby Parkinson	LA vs SF	Receiving yds	Over 19.5	betonlineag	-114	-256	+21.9
Colby Parkinson	LA vs SF	Receiving yds	Over 19.5	bovada	-115	-256	+21.9
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	Receiving yds	Over 11.5	draftkings	-109	-247	+21.8
George Kittle	SF vs LA	Receiving yds	Over 44.5	bovada	+150	-144	+21.5
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	Receiving yds	Over 11.5	betonlineag	-114	-247	+21.2
Colby Parkinson	LA vs SF	Receiving yds	Over 20.5	betmgm	-115	-240	+20.6
George Kittle	SF vs LA	Receiving yds	Over 33.5	betrivers	-118	-242	+20.2
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	Receiving yds	Over 11.5	betmgm	-120	-247	+20.1
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs LA	Rush + rec yds	Under 103.5	draftkings	-114	+229	+20.0
Mitchell Evans	SF vs LA	Anytime TD	To score a TD	betmgm	+1100	+254*	+19.9
George Kittle	SF vs LA	Receiving yds	Over 34.5	fanduel	-113	-230	+19.7
George Kittle	SF vs LA	Receiving yds	Over 34.5	draftkings	-112	-230	+19.7
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs LA	Rush + rec yds	Under 103.5	betmgm	-115	+229	+19.6

Line capture

Append-only store · every snapshot retained

30,672line observations

9snapshots

517players

1,102lines that moved

Market	Rows	Players	Books
Anytime TD	10,591	517	6
Receiving yds	6,934	170	6
Receptions	6,255	168	6
Rushing yds	3,320	84	6
Passing yds	1,486	32	6
Passing TDs	1,448	32	6
Rush + rec yds	638	40	3

Projections

All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds

Week 1 · 2026 season · Wed 09 Sep – Thu 10 Sep · 2 games

Passing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs SF	294.0
Drake Maye	NE @ SEA	233.6
Sam Darnold	SEA vs NE	233.3
Brock Purdy	SF @ LA	219.8
Drew Lock	SEA vs NE	116.3

Passing TDs

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs SF	2.26
Sam Darnold	SEA vs NE	1.45
Drake Maye	NE @ SEA	1.41
Brock Purdy	SF @ LA	1.32
Drew Lock	SEA vs NE	0.74

Rushing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	61.2
Christian McCaffrey	SF @ LA	60.5
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE @ SEA	53.9
Blake Corum	LA vs SF	41.3
Emanuel Wilson	SEA vs NE	30.3
Drake Maye	NE @ SEA	29.8
Ronnie Rivers	LA vs SF	25.1
Brock Purdy	SF @ LA	22.4
Corey Kiner	NE @ SEA	19.8
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	14.4
George Holani	SEA vs NE	13.3
Deebo Samuel Sr.	SF @ LA	11.0
Rashid Shaheed	SEA vs NE	10.5
Drew Lock	SEA vs NE	10.2
Sam Darnold	SEA vs NE	7.5

Receiving yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	92.4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs NE	84.4
A.J. Brown	NE @ SEA	65.7
Mike Evans	SF @ LA	55.0
Davante Adams	LA vs SF	52.7
George Kittle	SF @ LA	52.3
Mack Hollins	NE @ SEA	46.8
Cooper Kupp	SEA vs NE	45.5
Romeo Doubs	NE @ SEA	45.4
Christian McCaffrey	SF @ LA	44.1
Deebo Samuel Sr.	SF @ LA	37.4
Colby Parkinson	LA vs SF	34.5
AJ Barner	SEA vs NE	33.9
Hunter Henry	NE @ SEA	31.3
Demarcus Robinson	SF @ LA	29.0

Receptions

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	7.24
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs NE	6.26
A.J. Brown	NE @ SEA	4.97
Christian McCaffrey	SF @ LA	4.58
George Kittle	SF @ LA	4.46
Mike Evans	SF @ LA	3.85
Davante Adams	LA vs SF	3.84
Cooper Kupp	SEA vs NE	3.60
Deebo Samuel Sr.	SF @ LA	3.54
Romeo Doubs	NE @ SEA	3.54
AJ Barner	SEA vs NE	3.34
Mack Hollins	NE @ SEA	3.31
Colby Parkinson	LA vs SF	3.22
Hunter Henry	NE @ SEA	2.86
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE @ SEA	2.77

Anytime TD

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Kyren Williams	LA vs SF	52%	-109
Christian McCaffrey	SF @ LA	49%	+105
Puka Nacua	LA vs SF	43%	+132
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs NE	38%	+160
Davante Adams	LA vs SF	38%	+162
Colby Parkinson	LA vs SF	37%	+172
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE @ SEA	33%	+204
A.J. Brown	NE @ SEA	29%	+242
Mike Evans	SF @ LA	28%	+254
Blake Corum	LA vs SF	28%	+254
Cooper Kupp	SEA vs NE	26%	+284
AJ Barner	SEA vs NE	26%	+288
George Kittle	SF @ LA	26%	+291
Romeo Doubs	NE @ SEA	24%	+325
Deebo Samuel Sr.	SF @ LA	22%	+353

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	276.1
Matthew Stafford	LA vs NYG	273.3
Dak Prescott	DAL vs WAS	262.5
Caleb Williams	CHI vs MIN	255.9
Joe Burrow	CIN @ HOU	253.4
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ DEN	250.7
Tyler Shough	NO @ BAL	244.6
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs IND	238.8
Aaron Rodgers	PIT @ NE	236.9
Drake Maye	NE vs PIT	235.9
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	231.8
Bo Nix	DEN vs JAX	231.3

Player	Matchup	Projection
Dak Prescott	DAL vs WAS	1.88
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	1.86
Joe Burrow	CIN @ HOU	1.71
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs IND	1.63
Caleb Williams	CHI vs MIN	1.63
Brock Purdy	SF vs MIA	1.61
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ DEN	1.58
Drake Maye	NE vs PIT	1.57
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	1.56
Bo Nix	DEN vs JAX	1.52
Justin Herbert	LAC vs LV	1.43
Aaron Rodgers	PIT @ NE	1.38

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL vs NO	91.5
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	87.1
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ KC	81.1
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ TEN	74.3
De'Von Achane	MIA @ SF	72.9
Tony Pollard	TEN vs PHI	68.2
J.K. Dobbins	DEN vs JAX	67.7
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs IND	66.3
Javonte Williams	DAL vs WAS	66.3
James Cook	BUF vs DET	65.0
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ LAC	65.0
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	63.5
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	61.5
Bucky Irving	TB vs CLE	61.3
Kyren Williams	LA vs NYG	60.7

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	83.7
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ HOU	77.7
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	76.2
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	74.8
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs WAS	74.5
George Pickens	DAL vs WAS	70.7
Malik Nabers	NYG @ LA	68.7
Chris Olave	NO @ BAL	68.5
Drake London	ATL vs CAR	67.5
A.J. Brown	NE vs PIT	66.9
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	65.9
Zay Flowers	BAL vs NO	65.9
Jaylen Waddle	DEN vs JAX	65.9
Garrett Wilson	NYJ vs GB	65.1
Jameson Williams	DET @ BUF	64.2

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs NYG	6.83
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ HOU	6.58
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	6.26
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	6.14
Trey McBride	ARI vs SEA	6.08
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	5.84
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs WAS	5.54
Malik Nabers	NYG @ LA	5.44
Garrett Wilson	NYJ vs GB	5.24
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	5.24
Chris Olave	NO @ BAL	5.20
George Pickens	DAL vs WAS	5.19
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs PHI	5.15
Kyle Pitts	ATL vs CAR	5.10
Drake London	ATL vs CAR	5.05

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ BUF	59%	-144
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	59%	-144
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ KC	58%	-138
Javonte Williams	DAL vs WAS	54%	-117
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	52%	-107
Derrick Henry	BAL vs NO	52%	-106
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs IND	52%	-106
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	49%	+104
James Cook	BUF vs DET	48%	+109
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ TEN	47%	+112
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	46%	+119
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE vs PIT	44%	+125
Travis Etienne	NO @ BAL	44%	+128
Anthony Richardson	IND @ KC	44%	+129
RJ Harvey	DEN vs JAX	43%	+133

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jared Goff	DET vs NYJ	276.2
Matthew Stafford	LA @ DEN	268.8
Dak Prescott	DAL vs BAL	263.5
Caleb Williams	CHI vs PHI	256.6
Joe Burrow	CIN @ PIT	253.2
Tyler Shough	NO vs LV	245.8
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs CIN	242.3
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs NE	236.2
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ MIA	232.9
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	230.5
Daniel Jones	IND vs HOU	227.0
Kyler Murray	MIN @ TB	223.0

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jared Goff	DET vs NYJ	2.10
Joe Burrow	CIN @ PIT	1.81
Dak Prescott	DAL vs BAL	1.73
Caleb Williams	CHI vs PHI	1.62
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ MIA	1.55
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs CIN	1.52
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	1.51
Tyler Shough	NO vs LV	1.49
Jordan Love	GB vs ATL	1.44
Kyler Murray	MIN @ TB	1.37
Daniel Jones	IND vs HOU	1.33
Baker Mayfield	TB vs MIN	1.32

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL @ DAL	90.4
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ GB	85.2
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs HOU	82.2
De'Von Achane	MIA vs KC	73.7
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ CHI	72.9
Tony Pollard	TEN @ NYG	68.6
J.K. Dobbins	DEN vs LA	67.3
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ MIA	66.4
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ NO	66.2
James Cook	BUF vs LAC	65.0
Javonte Williams	DAL vs BAL	65.0
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NYJ	62.1
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs ARI	61.4
Chase Brown	CIN @ PIT	61.4
Jaylen Warren	PIT vs CIN	61.0

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ DEN	83.5
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ PIT	78.4
Malik Nabers	NYG vs TEN	77.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ WAS	76.2
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	75.7
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs BAL	73.6
George Pickens	DAL vs BAL	69.7
Chris Olave	NO vs LV	69.5
Drake London	ATL @ GB	66.5
Zay Flowers	BAL @ DAL	65.8
Rashee Rice	KC @ MIA	65.3
Jameson Williams	DET vs NYJ	65.1
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ DET	64.8
Colston Loveland	CHI vs PHI	63.9
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ NYG	61.7

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ DEN	6.79
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ PIT	6.60
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	6.28
Rashee Rice	KC @ MIA	6.07
Trey McBride	ARI @ SF	6.03
Malik Nabers	NYG vs TEN	5.86
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ WAS	5.84
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs BAL	5.53
Chris Olave	NO vs LV	5.22
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ DET	5.22
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ GB	5.21
George Pickens	DAL vs BAL	5.18
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ NYG	5.13
Kyle Pitts	ATL @ GB	5.07
Drake London	ATL @ GB	5.02

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NYJ	61%	-159
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs HOU	59%	-143
Derrick Henry	BAL @ DAL	51%	-103
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	51%	-102
Javonte Williams	DAL vs BAL	50%	+101
Chase Brown	CIN @ PIT	49%	+104
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs PHI	48%	+107
Cam Skattebo	NYG vs TEN	48%	+109
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ MIA	48%	+110
Josh Jacobs	GB vs ATL	46%	+118
James Cook	BUF vs LAC	46%	+119
Travis Etienne	NO vs LV	45%	+120
Anthony Richardson	IND vs HOU	45%	+122
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	44%	+125
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ CHI	44%	+129

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jared Goff	DET @ CAR	273.5
Matthew Stafford	LA @ PHI	268.8
Joe Burrow	CIN vs JAX	259.7
Dak Prescott	DAL @ HOU	257.3
Caleb Williams	CHI vs NYJ	255.1
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ CIN	254.0
Tyler Shough	NO vs ATL	247.2
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ NYG	236.6
Aaron Rodgers	PIT @ CLE	234.6
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ LV	232.8
Kyler Murray	MIN vs MIA	225.7
Daniel Jones	IND @ WAS	224.7

Player	Matchup	Projection
Joe Burrow	CIN vs JAX	1.99
Jared Goff	DET @ CAR	1.92
Caleb Williams	CHI vs NYJ	1.74
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ CIN	1.73
Dak Prescott	DAL @ HOU	1.61
Kyler Murray	MIN vs MIA	1.56
Tyler Shough	NO vs ATL	1.52
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ LV	1.50
Carson Wentz	MIN vs MIA	1.50
Aaron Rodgers	PIT @ CLE	1.45
Jayden Daniels	WAS vs IND	1.38
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ NYG	1.37

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	91.7
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ NO	86.2
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ WAS	82.0
De'Von Achane	MIA @ MIN	73.6
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs LA	73.5
Tony Pollard	TEN @ BAL	67.5
J.K. Dobbins	DEN @ SF	67.2
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ LV	66.0
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs KC	65.9
Javonte Williams	DAL @ HOU	64.9
James Cook	BUF vs NE	64.6
Jaylen Warren	PIT @ CLE	61.7
Chase Brown	CIN vs JAX	61.6
Cam Skattebo	NYG vs ARI	61.6
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs DEN	61.4

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ PHI	83.5
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	79.6
Malik Nabers	NYG vs ARI	77.7
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs LAC	76.4
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ CAR	74.9
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ HOU	72.7
Chris Olave	NO vs ATL	69.9
George Pickens	DAL @ HOU	68.8
Drake London	ATL @ NO	67.0
Zay Flowers	BAL vs TEN	66.2
Trey McBride	ARI @ NYG	65.0
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ CHI	64.9
Rashee Rice	KC @ LV	64.9
Colston Loveland	CHI vs NYJ	64.7
Jameson Williams	DET @ CAR	64.3

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA @ PHI	6.79
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	6.69
Trey McBride	ARI @ NYG	6.41
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ CAR	6.24
Rashee Rice	KC @ LV	6.06
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA vs LAC	5.89
Malik Nabers	NYG vs ARI	5.88
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ HOU	5.45
Chris Olave	NO vs ATL	5.25
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ CHI	5.22
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ NO	5.21
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ BAL	5.14
George Pickens	DAL @ HOU	5.10
Kyle Pitts	ATL @ NO	5.06
Drake London	ATL @ NO	5.02

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ CAR	62%	-160
Cam Skattebo	NYG vs ARI	59%	-145
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ WAS	59%	-142
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs NYJ	52%	-108
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN vs JAX	52%	-107
Derrick Henry	BAL vs TEN	51%	-105
Javonte Williams	DAL @ HOU	49%	+106
Chase Brown	CIN vs JAX	48%	+107
Travis Etienne	NO vs ATL	48%	+107
Malik Nabers	NYG vs ARI	47%	+115
Anthony Richardson	IND @ WAS	46%	+118
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ LV	44%	+127
Jaxson Dart	NYG vs ARI	43%	+130
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	JAX @ CIN	43%	+132
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ NO	42%	+139

Read this before acting on anything above

These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.

Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.