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NFL props model board

Week 1 · 2026 season · Wed 09 Sep – Mon 14 Sep · 16 games

Last updated 16 Sep 2026, 18:01 UTC · Projecting weeks 1–4

Edges

Week 1 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed

PlayerMatchupMarketBetBook Book oddsOur fair odds Edge
Bhayshul TutenJAX vs CLERush + rec ydsUnder 65.5draftkings-116+4363+48.4
Jeremiyah LoveGB vs MINRushing ydsUnder 38.5betonlineag-119+2947+47.7
Bhayshul TutenJAX vs CLERush + rec ydsUnder 65.5betrivers-113+4363+47.4
Jeremiyah LoveGB vs MINRushing ydsUnder 38.5draftkings-115+2947+47.4
Bhayshul TutenJAX vs CLERush + rec ydsUnder 63.5betmgm-115+3540+47.3
Jeremiyah LoveGB vs MINRushing ydsUnder 39.5betmgm-115+3459+47.2
Jeremiyah LoveGB vs MINRushing ydsUnder 39.5fanduel-114+3459+47.2
Ke'Shawn WilliamsLA vs SFAnytime TDTo score a TDfanduel+2500+102*+45.7
Ke'Shawn WilliamsLA vs SFAnytime TDTo score a TDbetrivers+2400+102*+45.5
Ke'Shawn WilliamsLA vs SFAnytime TDTo score a TDdraftkings+2000+102*+44.8
Ke'Shawn WilliamsLA vs SFAnytime TDTo score a TDbetmgm+2000+102*+44.8
Ke'Shawn WilliamsLA vs SFAnytime TDTo score a TDbovada+2000+102*+44.8
Ke'Shawn WilliamsLA vs SFAnytime TDTo score a TDbetonlineag+1700+102*+44.0
James CookBUF vs HOURush + rec ydsUnder 95.5betmgm-115+1207+42.3
Derrick HenryBAL vs INDRush + rec ydsUnder 89.5draftkings-113+1167+42.1
James CookBUF vs HOURush + rec ydsUnder 93.5draftkings-115+1071+41.9
David MontgomeryHOU vs BUFRush + rec ydsUnder 67.5draftkings-115+1067+41.8
Bhayshul TutenJAX vs CLERushing ydsUnder 50.5betonlineag-115+1064+41.7
Bhayshul TutenJAX vs CLERushing ydsUnder 50.5betrivers-117+1064+41.7
Derrick HenryBAL vs INDRush + rec ydsUnder 88.5betrivers-115+1097+41.6
David MontgomeryHOU vs BUFRush + rec ydsUnder 67.5betmgm-115+1067+41.4
Bhayshul TutenJAX vs CLERushing ydsUnder 50.5fanduel-114+1064+41.4
Bhayshul TutenJAX vs CLERushing ydsUnder 49.5draftkings-114+963+41.0
Bhayshul TutenJAX vs CLERushing ydsUnder 48.5betmgm-120+873+40.6
Bhayshul TutenJAX vs CLERushing ydsUnder 49.5bovada-115+963+40.6
David MontgomeryHOU vs BUFRush + rec ydsUnder 64.5betrivers-114+859+39.3
Cam BrownCIN vs TBAnytime TDTo score a TDbovada+2200+132*+38.8
Cam BrownCIN vs TBAnytime TDTo score a TDdraftkings+2200+132*+38.8
Cam BrownCIN vs TBAnytime TDTo score a TDbetrivers+1500+132*+36.9
Cam BrownCIN vs TBAnytime TDTo score a TDfanduel+1300+132*+36.0
Cam BrownCIN vs TBAnytime TDTo score a TDbetonlineag+1300+132*+36.0
Lamar JacksonBAL vs INDRushing ydsUnder 38.5fanduel-114+507+33.5
Jahmyr GibbsDET vs NORush + rec ydsUnder 122.5betmgm-115+481+32.8
Puka NacuaLA vs SFRushing ydsOver 2.5fanduel+108-343+32.1
Saquon BarkleyPHI vs WASRush + rec ydsUnder 98.5draftkings-114+445+31.9
Lamar JacksonBAL vs INDRushing ydsUnder 37.5betrivers-114+460+31.9
Jahmyr GibbsDET vs NORush + rec ydsUnder 120.5draftkings-113+445+31.7
Jared GoffDET vs NORushing ydsOver 0.5fanduel+142-235+31.4
Lamar JacksonBAL vs INDRushing ydsUnder 36.5betonlineag-115+418+31.0
Saquon BarkleyPHI vs WASRush + rec ydsUnder 97.5betmgm-115+426+31.0

Line capture

Append-only store · every snapshot retained

30,672line observations
9snapshots
517players
1,102lines that moved
MarketRowsPlayers Books
Anytime TD10,5915176
Receiving yds6,9341706
Receptions6,2551686
Rushing yds3,320846
Passing yds1,486326
Passing TDs1,448326
Rush + rec yds638403

Projections

All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds

Week 1 · 2026 season · Wed 09 Sep – Mon 14 Sep · 16 games

Passing yards

PlayerMatchupProjection
Matthew StaffordLA vs SF295.2
Jared GoffDET vs NO281.6
Joe BurrowCIN vs TB269.1
Josh AllenBUF @ HOU249.6
Trevor LawrenceJAX vs CLE243.1
Tyler ShoughNO @ DET242.4
Caleb WilliamsCHI @ CAR241.9
Drake MayeNE @ SEA234.1
Sam DarnoldSEA vs NE233.4
Jordan LoveGB @ MIN233.0
Jacoby BrissettARI @ LAC229.9
Kyler MurrayMIN vs GB229.1

Passing TDs

PlayerMatchupProjection
Matthew StaffordLA vs SF2.27
Jared GoffDET vs NO2.17
Joe BurrowCIN vs TB2.13
Trevor LawrenceJAX vs CLE1.75
Josh AllenBUF @ HOU1.64
Justin HerbertLAC vs ARI1.57
Caleb WilliamsCHI @ CAR1.52
Kyler MurrayMIN vs GB1.48
Aaron RodgersPIT vs ATL1.48
Dak PrescottDAL @ NYG1.48
Sam DarnoldSEA vs NE1.45
Drake MayeNE @ SEA1.41

Rushing yards

PlayerMatchupProjection
Derrick HenryBAL @ IND93.4
Bijan RobinsonATL @ PIT80.3
Saquon BarkleyPHI vs WAS79.6
Kenneth Walker IIIKC vs DEN76.2
Ashton JeantyLV vs MIA74.4
De'Von AchaneMIA @ LV74.1
Jonathan TaylorIND vs BAL73.2
Tony PollardTEN vs NYJ68.9
James CookBUF @ HOU68.7
J.K. DobbinsDEN @ KC66.9
Chase BrownCIN vs TB63.2
Kyren WilliamsLA vs SF61.2
Jahmyr GibbsDET vs NO61.2
Christian McCaffreySF @ LA60.5
Javonte WilliamsDAL @ NYG59.8

Receiving yards

PlayerMatchupProjection
Puka NacuaLA vs SF92.3
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs NE84.6
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs TB78.7
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs NO77.7
Chris OlaveNO @ DET76.6
Zay FlowersBAL @ IND68.7
Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN vs NYJ68.4
Malik NabersNYG vs DAL67.9
Drake LondonATL @ PIT66.8
Colston LovelandCHI @ CAR66.4
A.J. BrownNE @ SEA65.6
Jameson WilliamsDET vs NO65.6
Parker WashingtonJAX vs CLE64.7
George PickensDAL @ NYG64.5
Michael WilsonARI @ LAC63.3

Receptions

PlayerMatchupProjection
Puka NacuaLA vs SF7.24
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs TB6.69
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs NO6.46
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs NE6.27
Trey McBrideARI @ LAC6.17
Rashee RiceKC vs DEN6.03
Chris OlaveNO @ DET5.93
Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN vs NYJ5.63
Malik NabersNYG vs DAL5.20
Colston LovelandCHI @ CAR5.09
Khalil ShakirBUF @ HOU5.00
Justin JeffersonMIN vs GB4.99
A.J. BrownNE @ SEA4.97
Kyle PittsATL @ PIT4.93
Drake LondonATL @ PIT4.89

Anytime TD

PlayerMatchupChanceFair odds
Saquon BarkleyPHI vs WAS57%-135
Jonathan TaylorIND vs BAL57%-131
Javonte WilliamsDAL @ NYG56%-129
Jahmyr GibbsDET vs NO55%-123
D'Andre SwiftCHI @ CAR51%-102
Derrick HenryBAL @ IND50%-102
Kyren WilliamsLA vs SF49%+105
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs TB46%+117
Chase BrownCIN vs TB46%+118
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs NO45%+125
Cam SkatteboNYG vs DAL44%+129
Puka NacuaLA vs SF43%+131
Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX vs CLE43%+132
Kenneth Walker IIIKC vs DEN43%+134
Christian McCaffreySF @ LA42%+135

Read this before acting on anything above

These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.

Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.