Auto-updating · rebuilt by CI
Week 2 · 2026 season · Thu 17 Sep – Mon 21 Sep · 16 games
Last updated 16 Sep 2026, 03:34 UTCWeek 2 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed
| Player | Matchup | Market | Bet | Book | Book odds | Our fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs CLE | Rush + rec yds | Under 65.5 | draftkings | -116 | +4755 | +48.6 |
| Jeremiyah Love | GB vs MIN | Rushing yds | Under 38.5 | betonlineag | -119 | +2926 | +47.7 |
| Ke'Shawn Williams | LA vs SF | Anytime TD | To score a TD | fanduel | +2500 | -106* | +47.6 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs CLE | Rush + rec yds | Under 65.5 | betrivers | -113 | +4755 | +47.5 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs CLE | Rush + rec yds | Under 63.5 | betmgm | -115 | +3844 | +47.5 |
| Ke'Shawn Williams | LA vs SF | Anytime TD | To score a TD | betrivers | +2400 | -106* | +47.4 |
| Jeremiyah Love | GB vs MIN | Rushing yds | Under 38.5 | draftkings | -115 | +2926 | +47.3 |
| Jeremiyah Love | GB vs MIN | Rushing yds | Under 39.5 | betmgm | -115 | +3432 | +47.2 |
| Jeremiyah Love | GB vs MIN | Rushing yds | Under 39.5 | fanduel | -114 | +3432 | +47.2 |
| Ke'Shawn Williams | LA vs SF | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +2000 | -106* | +46.7 |
| Ke'Shawn Williams | LA vs SF | Anytime TD | To score a TD | betmgm | +2000 | -106* | +46.7 |
| Ke'Shawn Williams | LA vs SF | Anytime TD | To score a TD | bovada | +2000 | -106* | +46.7 |
| Ke'Shawn Williams | LA vs SF | Anytime TD | To score a TD | betonlineag | +1700 | -106* | +45.9 |
| James Cook | BUF vs HOU | Rush + rec yds | Under 95.5 | betmgm | -115 | +1198 | +42.3 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs CLE | Rushing yds | Under 50.5 | betonlineag | -115 | +1102 | +42.0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs CLE | Rushing yds | Under 50.5 | betrivers | -117 | +1102 | +42.0 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL vs IND | Rush + rec yds | Under 89.5 | draftkings | -113 | +1147 | +42.0 |
| David Montgomery | HOU vs BUF | Rush + rec yds | Under 67.5 | draftkings | -115 | +1070 | +41.9 |
| James Cook | BUF vs HOU | Rush + rec yds | Under 93.5 | draftkings | -115 | +1063 | +41.8 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs CLE | Rushing yds | Under 50.5 | fanduel | -114 | +1102 | +41.7 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL vs IND | Rush + rec yds | Under 88.5 | betrivers | -115 | +1078 | +41.5 |
| Cam Brown | CIN vs TB | Anytime TD | To score a TD | bovada | +2200 | +118* | +41.5 |
| Cam Brown | CIN vs TB | Anytime TD | To score a TD | draftkings | +2200 | +118* | +41.5 |
| David Montgomery | HOU vs BUF | Rush + rec yds | Under 67.5 | betmgm | -115 | +1070 | +41.5 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs CLE | Rushing yds | Under 49.5 | draftkings | -114 | +996 | +41.3 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs CLE | Rushing yds | Under 48.5 | betmgm | -120 | +902 | +40.9 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs CLE | Rushing yds | Under 49.5 | bovada | -115 | +996 | +40.9 |
| Cam Brown | CIN vs TB | Anytime TD | To score a TD | betrivers | +1500 | +118* | +39.6 |
| David Montgomery | HOU vs BUF | Rush + rec yds | Under 64.5 | betrivers | -114 | +861 | +39.3 |
| Cam Brown | CIN vs TB | Anytime TD | To score a TD | fanduel | +1300 | +118* | +38.7 |
| Cam Brown | CIN vs TB | Anytime TD | To score a TD | betonlineag | +1300 | +118* | +38.7 |
| Trevor Etienne | NO vs DET | Anytime TD | To score a TD | betrivers | +950 | +127* | +34.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL vs IND | Rushing yds | Under 38.5 | fanduel | -114 | +505 | +33.5 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET vs NO | Rush + rec yds | Under 122.5 | betmgm | -115 | +479 | +32.7 |
| Puka Nacua | LA vs SF | Rushing yds | Over 2.5 | fanduel | +108 | -347 | +32.3 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL vs IND | Rushing yds | Under 37.5 | betrivers | -114 | +459 | +31.8 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET vs NO | Rush + rec yds | Under 120.5 | draftkings | -113 | +443 | +31.6 |
| Jared Goff | DET vs NO | Rushing yds | Over 0.5 | fanduel | +142 | -236 | +31.5 |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI vs WAS | Rush + rec yds | Under 98.5 | draftkings | -114 | +425 | +31.1 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL vs IND | Rushing yds | Under 36.5 | betonlineag | -115 | +417 | +31.0 |
Append-only store · every snapshot retained
| Market | Rows | Players | Books |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 10,591 | 517 | 6 |
| Receiving yds | 6,934 | 170 | 6 |
| Receptions | 6,255 | 168 | 6 |
| Rushing yds | 3,320 | 84 | 6 |
| Passing yds | 1,486 | 32 | 6 |
| Passing TDs | 1,448 | 32 | 6 |
| Rush + rec yds | 638 | 40 | 3 |
All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | LA vs NYG | 294.1 |
| Jared Goff | DET @ BUF | 279.5 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN @ HOU | 264.3 |
| Josh Allen | BUF vs DET | 256.8 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI vs MIN | 245.3 |
| Tyler Shough | NO @ BAL | 242.2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX @ DEN | 240.9 |
| Drake Maye | NE vs PIT | 235.7 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL vs WAS | 234.8 |
| Bo Nix | DEN vs JAX | 230.3 |
| Jordan Love | GB @ NYJ | 229.7 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA @ ARI | 226.6 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | LA vs NYG | 2.43 |
| Jared Goff | DET @ BUF | 1.91 |
| Josh Allen | BUF vs DET | 1.88 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN @ HOU | 1.83 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL vs WAS | 1.64 |
| Brock Purdy | SF vs MIA | 1.61 |
| Drake Maye | NE vs PIT | 1.57 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI vs MIN | 1.56 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX @ DEN | 1.53 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA @ ARI | 1.52 |
| Bo Nix | DEN vs JAX | 1.50 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC vs IND | 1.49 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | BAL vs NO | 94.2 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL vs CAR | 82.2 |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI @ TEN | 79.2 |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC vs IND | 76.9 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND @ KC | 72.7 |
| De'Von Achane | MIA @ SF | 72.6 |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV @ LAC | 70.9 |
| James Cook | BUF vs DET | 69.3 |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN vs JAX | 68.0 |
| Tony Pollard | TEN vs PHI | 67.5 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF vs MIA | 63.2 |
| Kyren Williams | LA vs NYG | 62.3 |
| Chase Brown | CIN @ HOU | 61.9 |
| Bucky Irving | TB vs CLE | 61.6 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL vs WAS | 59.8 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LA vs NYG | 93.1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA @ ARI | 85.3 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN @ HOU | 77.0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET @ BUF | 76.7 |
| Chris Olave | NO @ BAL | 75.8 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL vs NO | 69.4 |
| Drake London | ATL vs CAR | 68.8 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN vs PHI | 68.2 |
| Malik Nabers | NYG @ LA | 67.1 |
| A.J. Brown | NE vs PIT | 66.8 |
| Colston Loveland | CHI vs MIN | 66.4 |
| George Pickens | DAL vs WAS | 65.2 |
| Rashee Rice | KC vs IND | 64.7 |
| Jameson Williams | DET @ BUF | 64.7 |
| Parker Washington | JAX @ DEN | 63.6 |
| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LA vs NYG | 7.25 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN @ HOU | 6.60 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET @ BUF | 6.43 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA @ ARI | 6.24 |
| Rashee Rice | KC vs IND | 6.08 |
| Chris Olave | NO @ BAL | 5.85 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN vs PHI | 5.65 |
| Malik Nabers | NYG @ LA | 5.15 |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF vs DET | 5.12 |
| Colston Loveland | CHI vs MIN | 5.11 |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL vs CAR | 5.02 |
| A.J. Brown | NE vs PIT | 4.98 |
| Drake London | ATL vs CAR | 4.98 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN @ CHI | 4.93 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL vs CAR | 4.92 |
| Player | Matchup | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | SF vs MIA | 62% | -164 |
| Josh Allen | BUF vs DET | 60% | -151 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND @ KC | 58% | -137 |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC vs IND | 57% | -132 |
| Kyren Williams | LA vs NYG | 56% | -126 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL vs WAS | 55% | -123 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL vs NO | 55% | -122 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL vs CAR | 54% | -117 |
| Rashee Rice | KC vs IND | 51% | -103 |
| Zach Charbonnet | SEA @ ARI | 51% | -102 |
| James Cook | BUF vs DET | 50% | +101 |
| Puka Nacua | LA vs NYG | 49% | +106 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET @ BUF | 48% | +106 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET @ BUF | 48% | +108 |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI vs MIN | 47% | +111 |
These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.
Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.