NFL Props — Model Board

Edges

Week 2 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed

Player	Matchup	Market	Bet	Book	Book odds	Our fair odds	Edge
Mike Washington Jr.	MIA vs SF	Receiving yds	Over 0.5	bettingpros	+130	-732*	+44.5
Mike Washington Jr.	MIA vs SF	Rushing yds	Under 22.5	bettingpros	+107	+1033*	+39.5
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	Rush + rec yds	Under 83.5	bettingpros	+107	+525*	+32.3
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs DEN	Rushing yds	Under 51.5	bettingpros	+107	+457*	+30.4
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	Rush + rec yds	Under 75.5	bettingpros	+107	+379*	+27.4
Dawson Knox	BUF vs DET	Receiving yds	Over 14.5	bettingpros	+127	-248*	+27.2
Lamar Jackson	BAL vs NO	Rushing yds	Under 39.5	bettingpros	+104	+352*	+26.9
David Montgomery	HOU vs CIN	Rushing yds	Under 66.5	bettingpros	+107	+358*	+26.5
Michael Wilson	ARI vs SEA	Receiving yds	Over 39.5	bettingpros	+104	-280*	+24.7
Kayshon Boutte	HOU vs CIN	Receiving yds	Over 19.5	bettingpros	-107	-315*	+24.2
Darren Waller	CAR vs ATL	Receiving yds	Over 17.5	bettingpros	-107	-297*	+23.1
Jared Goff	DET vs BUF	Rushing yds	Over 0.5	bettingpros	+146	-166*	+21.8
Mark Andrews	BAL vs NO	Receiving yds	Under 48.5	bettingpros	+107	+277*	+21.8
Jacoby Brissett	ARI vs SEA	Rushing yds	Over 5.5	bettingpros	-107	-272*	+21.5
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	JAX vs DEN	Rushing yds	Over 25.5	bettingpros	-107	-270*	+21.3
Tyquan Thornton	KC vs IND	Receiving yds	Over 14.5	bettingpros	+100	-237*	+20.3
Brock Purdy	SF vs MIA	Rushing yds	Over 15.5	bettingpros	+105	-223*	+20.3
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	Rushing yds	Under 64.5	bettingpros	+107	+251*	+19.8
Bucky Irving	TB vs CLE	Receiving yds	Over 14.5	bettingpros	-107	-246*	+19.4
Drew Lock	SEA vs ARI	Passing TDs	Under 1.5	bettingpros	+189	+534*	+18.8
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs NE	Rushing yds	Over 0.5	bettingpros	-110	-246*	+18.7
Kyle Juszczyk	SF vs MIA	Receiving yds	Over 8.5	bettingpros	-107	-237*	+18.6
Woody Marks	HOU vs CIN	Receiving yds	Over 7.5	bettingpros	-107	-229*	+17.9
Samaje Perine	CIN vs HOU	Rushing yds	Over 14.5	bettingpros	-107	-228*	+17.8
Drake Maye	NE vs PIT	Rushing yds	Over 24.5	bettingpros	+104	-199*	+17.6
Tony Pollard	TEN vs PHI	Rushing yds	Over 44.5	bettingpros	-104	-217*	+17.4
Kyle Pitts Sr.	ATL vs CAR	Receiving yds	Over 34.5	bettingpros	-107	-219*	+16.9
Jaylen Warren	PIT vs NE	Rushing yds	Over 40.5	bettingpros	-107	-217*	+16.8
Mike Washington Jr.	MIA vs SF	Receptions	Over 0.5	bettingpros	+112	-176*	+16.6
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs TEN	Receiving yds	Over 11.5	bettingpros	-107	-209*	+16.0
Quinshon Judkins	CLE vs TB	Receiving yds	Over 9.5	bettingpros	-107	-208*	+15.9
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	Receiving yds	Over 9.5	bettingpros	-107	-205*	+15.5
Jerry Jeudy	CLE vs TB	Receiving yds	Over 26.5	bettingpros	-107	-202*	+15.2
Deebo Samuel Sr.	SF vs MIA	Rushing yds	Over 5.5	bettingpros	-107	-202*	+15.2
Jalen Hurts	PHI vs TEN	Rushing yds	Under 31.5	bettingpros	+107	+193*	+14.1
Samaje Perine	CIN vs HOU	Rush + rec yds	Over 25.5	bettingpros	-107	-191*	+14.0
Patrick Mahomes II	KC vs IND	Rushing yds	Over 17.5	bettingpros	-112	-200*	+13.9
Tyquan Thornton	KC vs IND	Receptions	Over 1.5	bettingpros	+184	+105*	+13.7
Juwan Johnson	NO vs BAL	Receiving yds	Over 29.5	bettingpros	-107	-188*	+13.6
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs GB	Receiving yds	Over 4.5	bettingpros	-107	-188*	+13.6

Line capture

Append-only store · every snapshot retained

31,131line observations

10snapshots

527players

1,102lines that moved

Market	Rows	Players	Books
Anytime TD	10,591	517	6
Receiving yds	7,089	196	7
Receptions	6,399	194	7
Rushing yds	3,396	94	7
Passing yds	1,517	35	7
Passing TDs	1,479	35	7
Rush + rec yds	660	46	4

Projections

All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds

Passing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	264.8
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	259.7
Tyler Shough	NO @ BAL	255.7
Joe Burrow	CIN @ HOU	253.2
Caleb Williams	CHI vs MIN	251.5
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ DEN	243.4
Jordan Love	GB @ NYJ	242.5
Jacoby Brissett	ARI vs SEA	241.5
Aaron Rodgers	PIT @ NE	232.0
Dak Prescott	DAL vs WAS	230.0
C.J. Stroud	HOU vs CIN	225.8
Brock Purdy	SF vs MIA	225.3

Passing TDs

Player	Matchup	Projection
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	1.91
Jared Goff	DET @ BUF	1.75
Joe Burrow	CIN @ HOU	1.68
Caleb Williams	CHI vs MIN	1.65
Brock Purdy	SF vs MIA	1.65
Trevor Lawrence	JAX @ DEN	1.61
Dak Prescott	DAL vs WAS	1.60
Jordan Love	GB @ NYJ	1.51
Jacoby Brissett	ARI vs SEA	1.43
Baker Mayfield	TB vs CLE	1.41
Drake Maye	NE vs PIT	1.40
Justin Herbert	LAC vs LV	1.39

Rushing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Derrick Henry	BAL vs NO	101.2
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs IND	84.7
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	81.1
Saquon Barkley	PHI @ TEN	77.9
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ KC	76.6
James Cook	BUF vs DET	74.9
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ BUF	73.5
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ LAC	70.6
De'Von Achane	MIA @ SF	68.2
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	66.2
Breece Hall	NYJ vs GB	65.8
Chase Brown	CIN @ HOU	63.4
J.K. Dobbins	DEN vs JAX	63.4
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	62.8
Tony Pollard	TEN vs PHI	62.3

Receiving yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	87.1
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	84.7
Chris Olave	NO @ BAL	82.0
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ HOU	67.8
Trey McBride	ARI vs SEA	65.5
Michael Wilson	ARI vs SEA	65.4
Justin Jefferson	MIN @ CHI	65.4
Parker Washington	JAX @ DEN	64.0
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs PHI	63.9
Jameson Williams	DET @ BUF	63.8
Drake London	ATL vs CAR	63.2
Garrett Wilson	NYJ vs GB	62.8
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs WAS	61.2
Tetairoa McMillan	CAR @ ATL	61.1
George Pickens	DAL vs WAS	59.3

Receptions

Player	Matchup	Projection
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET @ BUF	7.25
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ ARI	6.53
Trey McBride	ARI vs SEA	6.46
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ HOU	6.10
Chris Olave	NO @ BAL	6.09
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN vs PHI	5.49
Rashee Rice	KC vs IND	5.48
Justin Jefferson	MIN @ CHI	5.41
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	5.20
Khalil Shakir	BUF vs DET	5.12
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs WAS	4.81
Garrett Wilson	NYJ vs GB	4.79
Michael Wilson	ARI vs SEA	4.75
Sam LaPorta	DET @ BUF	4.70
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	4.70

Anytime TD

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs MIA	61%	-158
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET @ BUF	60%	-148
Javonte Williams	DAL vs WAS	55%	-122
Jonathan Taylor	IND @ KC	54%	-117
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs IND	54%	-116
Josh Allen	BUF vs DET	52%	-108
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	52%	-108
Derrick Henry	BAL vs NO	50%	-100
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	WAS @ DAL	49%	+103
James Cook	BUF vs DET	47%	+114
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ LAC	43%	+131
Chase Brown	CIN @ HOU	43%	+132
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CAR	43%	+133
Chuba Hubbard	CAR @ ATL	42%	+139
Mike Evans	SF vs MIA	40%	+152

Read this before acting on anything above

These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.

Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.