NFL Props — Model Board

Edges

Week 6 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed

Player	Matchup	Market	Bet	Book	Book odds	Our fair odds	Edge
James Cook	BUF vs LV	Rush + rec yds	Under 105.5	bovada	-120	+944	+41.4
James Cook	BUF vs LV	Rush + rec yds	Under 105.5	draftkings	-115	+944	+40.8
James Cook	BUF vs LV	Rush + rec yds	Under 105.5	betrivers	-117	+944	+40.7
James Cook	BUF vs LV	Rush + rec yds	Under 104.5	fanduel	-114	+896	+40.0
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs HOU	Rush + rec yds	Under 76.5	betmgm	-115	+672	+37.0
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs HOU	Rush + rec yds	Under 75.5	fanduel	-114	+633	+36.4
Germie Bernard	PIT vs TB	Receiving yds	Under 40.5	draftkings	-110	+645	+36.1
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs HOU	Rush + rec yds	Under 75.5	draftkings	-111	+633	+35.9
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs HOU	Rush + rec yds	Under 75.5	bovada	-110	+633	+35.3
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs HOU	Rush + rec yds	Under 73.5	betrivers	-114	+563	+34.6
Tory Horton	SEA vs DEN	Receiving yds	Over 4.5	draftkings	-109	-521	+34.5
Tory Horton	SEA vs DEN	Receiving yds	Over 4.5	betonlineag	-112	-521	+34.2
Germie Bernard	PIT vs TB	Receiving yds	Under 38.5	fanduel	-114	+530	+34.1
Tory Horton	SEA vs DEN	Receiving yds	Over 4.5	betmgm	-115	-521	+33.9
Kyren Williams	LA vs ARI	Rush + rec yds	Under 98.5	draftkings	-111	+530	+33.7
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE vs NYJ	Rushing yds	Under 71.5	bovada	-115	+505	+33.5
Kyren Williams	LA vs ARI	Rush + rec yds	Under 96.5	betrivers	-117	+483	+33.1
Kyren Williams	LA vs ARI	Rush + rec yds	Under 98.5	bovada	-110	+530	+33.1
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE vs NYJ	Rushing yds	Under 71.5	draftkings	-110	+505	+33.1
Kyren Williams	LA vs ARI	Rush + rec yds	Under 96.5	fanduel	-115	+483	+33.0
Tory Horton	SEA vs DEN	Receiving yds	Over 5.5	fanduel	-114	-480	+32.8
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE vs NYJ	Rushing yds	Under 70.5	betonlineag	-114	+475	+32.6
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE vs NYJ	Rushing yds	Under 70.5	betrivers	-115	+475	+32.6
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE vs NYJ	Rushing yds	Under 70.5	fanduel	-114	+475	+32.6
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs TEN	Rush + rec yds	Under 112.5	bovada	-115	+464	+32.3
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs TEN	Rush + rec yds	Under 112.5	draftkings	-112	+464	+32.0
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE vs NYJ	Rush + rec yds	Under 96.5	bovada	-115	+453	+31.9
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs TEN	Rush + rec yds	Under 111.5	fanduel	-114	+445	+31.6
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE vs NYJ	Rush + rec yds	Under 96.5	draftkings	-111	+453	+31.6
Woody Marks	HOU vs JAX	Rush + rec yds	Under 66.5	bovada	-115	+424	+30.9
Woody Marks	HOU vs JAX	Rush + rec yds	Under 66.5	draftkings	-112	+424	+30.7
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs TEN	Rush + rec yds	Under 116.5	betrivers	+100	+547	+30.5
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE vs NYJ	Rush + rec yds	Under 94.5	betrivers	-114	+414	+30.2
Woody Marks	HOU vs JAX	Rush + rec yds	Under 66.5	betmgm	-111	+424	+30.2
Emanuel Wilson	SEA vs DEN	Rush + rec yds	Under 80.5	fanduel	-114	+404	+30.2
Tyjae Spears	TEN vs IND	Rush + rec yds	Over 33.5	betrivers	+110	-279	+30.1
Woody Marks	HOU vs JAX	Rush + rec yds	Under 65.5	fanduel	-114	+401	+30.0
RJ Harvey	DEN vs SEA	Rush + rec yds	Over 37.5	betmgm	-115	-393	+29.7
Emanuel Wilson	SEA vs DEN	Rush + rec yds	Under 79.5	betrivers	-117	+384	+29.7
MarShawn Lloyd	GB vs DAL	Rushing yds	Under 40.5	betonlineag	-114	+386	+29.4

Line capture

Append-only store · every snapshot retained

55,938line observations

14snapshots

591players

1,715lines that moved

Market	Rows	Players	Books
Anytime TD	19,227	581	6
Receiving yds	12,459	250	7
Receptions	11,256	252	7
Rushing yds	6,120	118	7
Passing yds	2,757	41	7
Passing TDs	2,711	41	7
Rush + rec yds	1,408	59	6

Projections

All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds

Passing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs ARI	289.6
Dak Prescott	DAL @ GB	268.8
Tyler Shough	NO @ NYG	260.5
Jordan Love	GB vs DAL	250.6
Caleb Williams	CHI @ ATL	250.1
Kirk Cousins	LV vs BUF	245.2
C.J. Stroud	HOU @ JAX	244.9
Bryce Young	CAR @ PHI	242.1
Brock Purdy	SF vs WAS	240.7
Josh Allen	BUF @ LV	235.6
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs LAC	233.1
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ LA	232.0

Passing TDs

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs ARI	2.37
Dak Prescott	DAL @ GB	1.78
Tyler Shough	NO @ NYG	1.76
Brock Purdy	SF vs WAS	1.73
Jordan Love	GB vs DAL	1.68
Josh Allen	BUF @ LV	1.67
Caleb Williams	CHI @ ATL	1.62
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs LAC	1.54
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs HOU	1.53
Kirk Cousins	LV vs BUF	1.53
Bryce Young	CAR @ PHI	1.44
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ LA	1.41

Rushing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CHI	90.8
Derrick Henry	BAL @ CLE	90.1
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs LAC	88.9
James Cook	BUF @ LV	85.8
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs TEN	82.7
Jaylen Warren	PIT @ TB	69.9
Kyren Williams	LA vs ARI	69.4
Javonte Williams	DAL @ GB	64.3
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs CAR	63.9
Bucky Irving	TB vs PIT	61.6
Breece Hall	NYJ @ NE	61.6
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs BUF	60.6
D'Andre Swift	CHI @ ATL	60.5
Tony Pollard	TEN @ IND	60.2
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs WAS	57.5

Receiving yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs ARI	90.4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ DEN	88.7
Chris Olave	NO @ NYG	87.4
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ GB	83.7
Michael Wilson	ARI @ LA	74.2
Zay Flowers	BAL @ CLE	72.3
Drake London	ATL vs CHI	70.5
Carnell Tate	TEN @ IND	67.6
A.J. Brown	NE vs NYJ	67.3
Davante Adams	LA vs ARI	66.6
Trey McBride	ARI @ LA	66.2
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ NE	65.4
Denzel Boston	CLE vs BAL	64.8
Nico Collins	HOU @ JAX	64.0
DeVonta Smith	PHI vs CAR	63.1

Receptions

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs ARI	6.86
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ DEN	6.56
Trey McBride	ARI @ LA	6.52
Chris Olave	NO @ NYG	6.51
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ GB	6.49
Michael Wilson	ARI @ LA	5.74
Brock Bowers	LV vs BUF	5.30
Drake London	ATL vs CHI	5.29
Rashee Rice	KC vs LAC	5.22
Zay Flowers	BAL @ CLE	5.16
Carnell Tate	TEN @ IND	5.09
A.J. Brown	NE vs NYJ	5.00
DeVonta Smith	PHI vs CAR	4.98
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ NE	4.90
Nico Collins	HOU @ JAX	4.73

Anytime TD

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs WAS	68%	-217
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs BUF	64%	-177
Kyren Williams	LA vs ARI	63%	-173
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CHI	62%	-162
Josh Allen	BUF @ LV	61%	-156
James Cook	BUF @ LV	59%	-147
Javonte Williams	DAL @ GB	59%	-147
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs TEN	57%	-133
D'Andre Swift	CHI @ ATL	56%	-126
Derrick Henry	BAL @ CLE	52%	-110
Josh Jacobs	GB vs DAL	51%	-103
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs LAC	51%	-103
Puka Nacua	LA vs ARI	50%	-101
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE vs NYJ	46%	+118
Davante Adams	LA vs ARI	46%	+119

Read this before acting on anything above

These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.

Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.