NFL Props — Model Board

Edges

Week 3 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed

Player	Matchup	Market	Bet	Book	Book odds	Our fair odds	Edge
Mike Washington Jr.	MIA vs SF	Receiving yds	Over 0.5	bettingpros	+130	-732*	+44.5
Mike Washington Jr.	MIA vs SF	Rushing yds	Under 22.5	bettingpros	+107	+1033*	+39.5
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	Rush + rec yds	Under 83.5	bettingpros	+107	+525*	+32.3
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs DEN	Rushing yds	Under 51.5	bettingpros	+107	+457*	+30.4
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	Rush + rec yds	Under 75.5	bettingpros	+107	+379*	+27.4
Dawson Knox	BUF vs DET	Receiving yds	Over 14.5	bettingpros	+127	-248*	+27.2
Lamar Jackson	BAL vs NO	Rushing yds	Under 39.5	bettingpros	+104	+352*	+26.9
David Montgomery	HOU vs CIN	Rushing yds	Under 66.5	bettingpros	+107	+358*	+26.5
Michael Wilson	ARI vs SEA	Receiving yds	Over 39.5	bettingpros	+104	-280*	+24.7
Kayshon Boutte	HOU vs CIN	Receiving yds	Over 19.5	bettingpros	-107	-315*	+24.2
Darren Waller	CAR vs ATL	Receiving yds	Over 17.5	bettingpros	-107	-297*	+23.1
Jared Goff	DET vs BUF	Rushing yds	Over 0.5	bettingpros	+146	-166*	+21.8
Mark Andrews	BAL vs NO	Receiving yds	Under 48.5	bettingpros	+107	+277*	+21.8
Jacoby Brissett	ARI vs SEA	Rushing yds	Over 5.5	bettingpros	-107	-272*	+21.5
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	JAX vs DEN	Rushing yds	Over 25.5	bettingpros	-107	-270*	+21.3
Tyquan Thornton	KC vs IND	Receiving yds	Over 14.5	bettingpros	+100	-237*	+20.3
Brock Purdy	SF vs MIA	Rushing yds	Over 15.5	bettingpros	+105	-223*	+20.3
Omarion Hampton	LAC vs LV	Rushing yds	Under 64.5	bettingpros	+107	+251*	+19.8
Bucky Irving	TB vs CLE	Receiving yds	Over 14.5	bettingpros	-107	-246*	+19.4
Drew Lock	SEA vs ARI	Passing TDs	Under 1.5	bettingpros	+189	+534*	+18.8
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs NE	Rushing yds	Over 0.5	bettingpros	-110	-246*	+18.7
Kyle Juszczyk	SF vs MIA	Receiving yds	Over 8.5	bettingpros	-107	-237*	+18.6
Woody Marks	HOU vs CIN	Receiving yds	Over 7.5	bettingpros	-107	-229*	+17.9
Samaje Perine	CIN vs HOU	Rushing yds	Over 14.5	bettingpros	-107	-228*	+17.8
Drake Maye	NE vs PIT	Rushing yds	Over 24.5	bettingpros	+104	-199*	+17.6
Tony Pollard	TEN vs PHI	Rushing yds	Over 44.5	bettingpros	-104	-217*	+17.4
Kyle Pitts Sr.	ATL vs CAR	Receiving yds	Over 34.5	bettingpros	-107	-219*	+16.9
Jaylen Warren	PIT vs NE	Rushing yds	Over 40.5	bettingpros	-107	-217*	+16.8
Mike Washington Jr.	MIA vs SF	Receptions	Over 0.5	bettingpros	+112	-176*	+16.6
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs TEN	Receiving yds	Over 11.5	bettingpros	-107	-209*	+16.0
Quinshon Judkins	CLE vs TB	Receiving yds	Over 9.5	bettingpros	-107	-208*	+15.9
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs MIN	Receiving yds	Over 9.5	bettingpros	-107	-205*	+15.5
Jerry Jeudy	CLE vs TB	Receiving yds	Over 26.5	bettingpros	-107	-202*	+15.2
Deebo Samuel Sr.	SF vs MIA	Rushing yds	Over 5.5	bettingpros	-107	-202*	+15.2
Jalen Hurts	PHI vs TEN	Rushing yds	Under 31.5	bettingpros	+107	+193*	+14.1
Samaje Perine	CIN vs HOU	Rush + rec yds	Over 25.5	bettingpros	-107	-191*	+14.0
Patrick Mahomes II	KC vs IND	Rushing yds	Over 17.5	bettingpros	-112	-200*	+13.9
Tyquan Thornton	KC vs IND	Receptions	Over 1.5	bettingpros	+184	+105*	+13.7
Juwan Johnson	NO vs BAL	Receiving yds	Over 29.5	bettingpros	-107	-188*	+13.6
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs GB	Receiving yds	Over 4.5	bettingpros	-107	-188*	+13.6

Line capture

Append-only store · every snapshot retained

31,131line observations

10snapshots

527players

1,102lines that moved

Market	Rows	Players	Books
Anytime TD	10,591	517	6
Receiving yds	7,089	196	7
Receptions	6,399	194	7
Rushing yds	3,396	94	7
Passing yds	1,517	35	7
Passing TDs	1,479	35	7
Rush + rec yds	660	46	4

Projections

All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds

Passing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jared Goff	DET vs NYJ	283.5
Matthew Stafford	LA @ DEN	267.3
Tyler Shough	NO vs LV	266.9
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	253.4
Jordan Love	GB vs ATL	248.2
Joe Burrow	CIN @ PIT	244.4
Dak Prescott	DAL vs BAL	239.4
C.J. Stroud	HOU @ IND	236.2
Bryce Young	CAR @ CLE	234.1
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs NE	232.9
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ MIA	229.2
Aaron Rodgers	PIT vs CIN	224.7

Passing TDs

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jared Goff	DET vs NYJ	2.29
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	1.81
Matthew Stafford	LA @ DEN	1.76
Tyler Shough	NO vs LV	1.75
Joe Burrow	CIN @ PIT	1.70
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs NE	1.61
Dak Prescott	DAL vs BAL	1.60
Patrick Mahomes	KC @ MIA	1.59
Jordan Love	GB vs ATL	1.58
Brock Purdy	SF vs ARI	1.54
Bryce Young	CAR @ CLE	1.44
Lamar Jackson	BAL @ DAL	1.35

Rushing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ MIA	94.0
Derrick Henry	BAL @ DAL	93.3
James Cook	BUF vs LAC	82.3
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NYJ	79.6
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs HOU	78.9
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ GB	72.8
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ NO	71.1
De'Von Achane	MIA vs KC	69.6
Chase Brown	CIN @ PIT	68.1
Bucky Irving	TB vs MIN	63.2
Breece Hall	NYJ @ DET	62.7
Aaron Jones	MIN @ TB	58.7
J.K. Dobbins	DEN vs LA	58.4
Tony Pollard	TEN @ NYG	58.1
Jaylen Warren	PIT vs CIN	56.7

Receiving yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	87.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ WAS	87.7
Chris Olave	NO vs LV	84.3
Parker Washington	JAX vs NE	73.6
Zay Flowers	BAL @ DAL	71.2
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ PIT	69.5
Justin Jefferson	MIN @ TB	66.5
Trey McBride	ARI @ SF	66.0
Tetairoa McMillan	CAR @ CLE	65.4
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs BAL	65.3
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ DET	62.9
Tee Higgins	CIN @ PIT	61.8
Jameson Williams	DET vs NYJ	61.8
Michael Wilson	ARI @ SF	61.8
Drake London	ATL @ GB	60.4

Receptions

Player	Matchup	Projection
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	7.36
Trey McBride	ARI @ SF	6.50
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ WAS	6.47
Chris Olave	NO vs LV	6.20
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN @ PIT	6.07
Justin Jefferson	MIN @ TB	5.28
Rashee Rice	KC @ MIA	5.20
Parker Washington	JAX vs NE	5.05
CeeDee Lamb	DAL vs BAL	4.95
Bijan Robinson	ATL @ GB	4.89
Zay Flowers	BAL @ DAL	4.87
Sam LaPorta	DET vs NYJ	4.74
Brock Bowers	LV @ NO	4.72
Jalen Coker	CAR @ CLE	4.71
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN @ NYG	4.67

Anytime TD

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs NYJ	59%	-144
Kenneth Walker III	KC @ MIA	59%	-143
James Cook	BUF vs LAC	56%	-127
Javonte Williams	DAL vs BAL	56%	-126
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs ARI	55%	-123
Josh Allen	BUF vs LAC	54%	-119
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET vs NYJ	54%	-118
Derrick Henry	BAL @ DAL	54%	-117
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs HOU	53%	-114
Chase Brown	CIN @ PIT	45%	+124
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ WAS	45%	+124
Kyren Williams	LA @ DEN	40%	+148
Omarion Hampton	LAC @ BUF	40%	+148
Ashton Jeanty	LV @ NO	40%	+153
Chris Olave	NO vs LV	39%	+154

Read this before acting on anything above

These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.

Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.