Week 1 recap
These picks were rebuilt after the games, from the model and the betting lines saved before kickoff. They were not posted in advance, so treat this week as a replay, not a track record.
6–4Must plays, +1.9u
4–6Leans, -1.8u
Must plays
- ✓CeeDee LambUnder 77.5 rec yds -114
- ✗Colby ParkinsonAnytime TD +450
- ✓Jakobi MeyersOver 36.5 rec yds -115
- ✓Javonte WilliamsUnder 73.5 rush yds -114
- ✓Jalen CokerOver 39.5 rec yds -113
- ✗J.K. DobbinsOver 3.5 rec yds -114
- ✗Cade OttonOver 28.5 rec yds -113
- ✓Josh AllenOver 219.5 pass yds -115
- ✓Xavier HutchinsonOver 2.5 receptions +150
- ✗Kenneth Walker IIIUnder 82.5 rush + rec yds -113
Leans
- ✗Kenny GainwellOver 3.5 receptions +135
- ✗Dontayvion WicksUnder 30.5 rec yds -118
- ✓Khalil ShakirOver 36.5 rec yds -110
- ✓Bucky IrvingOver 2.5 receptions +144
- ✗Tyquan ThorntonOver 18.5 rec yds -115
- ✗Colston LovelandOver 51.5 rec yds -114
- ✓Justice HillOver 8.5 rush yds -114
- ✗Jerry JeudyOver 30.5 rec yds -110
- ✓Derrick HenryOver 6.5 rec yds -107
- ✗Saquon BarkleyOver 15.5 rec yds -114
Flat 1 unit per pick. Graded exactly as posted at the last update before each game's kickoff. Players who did not play are voided.
Method changes after this week
Changing
- ✓Lines now matched only to the game they were posted for (stale-line bug fixed)
- ✓Picks split into must plays and leans; both tracked
- ✓Every posted pick is saved with a timestamp and graded as posted
- ✓Line logging cut to Wednesdays and Saturdays to fit the data budget
- ✓Edges above 15% held back as likely model errors
- ✓Week 1 usage review added as a diagnostic, not a model input
Not changing
- ✗Projection model: unchanged, one week is too small a sample
- ✗Bet sizing: flat 1 unit, edge size has not predicted results
- ✗No manual adjustments for Week 1 usage spikes (being tracked instead)
Updated Sep 16, 2026 03:34 UTC
Research project. The model has no demonstrated betting edge yet; results so far are too few to separate skill from luck.