NFL Props — Model Board

Edges

Week 6 · where our fair price disagrees with the book · * = vig not removed

Player	Matchup	Market	Bet	Book	Book odds	Our fair odds	Edge
Kyren Williams	NE vs LV	Rush + rec yds	Under 97.5	draftkings	-114	+26332293	+50.2
Kyren Williams	NE vs LV	Rush + rec yds	Under 95.5	betrivers	-115	+16373374	+50.0
Kyren Williams	NE vs LV	Rush + rec yds	Under 94.5	betmgm	-115	+12960059	+50.0
Kyren Williams	NE vs LV	Rush + rec yds	Under 93.5	fanduel	-113	+10284203	+49.8
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CLE	Rush + rec yds	Under 91.5	betmgm	-115	+2868	+46.6
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CLE	Rush + rec yds	Under 89.5	fanduel	-113	+2462	+46.1
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CLE	Rush + rec yds	Under 89.5	draftkings	-112	+2462	+46.0
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CLE	Rush + rec yds	Under 87.5	betrivers	-114	+2119	+45.2
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 71.5	bovada	-115	+1714	+44.5
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 71.5	betonlineag	-114	+1714	+44.5
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 71.5	fanduel	-113	+1714	+44.5
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 71.5	betmgm	-115	+1714	+44.5
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 71.5	draftkings	-110	+1714	+44.1
Braelon Allen	NYJ vs CLE	Rushing yds	Under 71.5	betrivers	-113	+1714	+44.0
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs GB	Rush + rec yds	Under 109.5	draftkings	-114	+1138	+42.1
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs GB	Rush + rec yds	Under 109.5	fanduel	-113	+1138	+41.9
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs GB	Rush + rec yds	Under 108.5	betrivers	-115	+1079	+41.5
D'Andre Swift	CHI vs GB	Rush + rec yds	Under 105.5	betmgm	-115	+920	+40.2
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs PHI	Rush + rec yds	Under 82.5	draftkings	-114	+858	+39.8
Tyson Bagent	CHI vs GB	Passing yds	Under 222.5	betonlineag	-114	+736	+38.0
Tyson Bagent	CHI vs GB	Passing yds	Under 222.5	bovada	-115	+736	+38.0
Tyson Bagent	CHI vs GB	Passing yds	Under 222.5	draftkings	-111	+736	+37.8
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs PHI	Rush + rec yds	Under 79.5	fanduel	-113	+717	+37.8
Tyson Bagent	CHI vs GB	Passing yds	Under 215.5	betrivers	-117	+642	+36.8
Tyson Bagent	CHI vs GB	Passing yds	Under 216.5	fanduel	-113	+654	+36.7
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs PHI	Rush + rec yds	Under 78.5	betrivers	-113	+675	+36.6
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX vs PHI	Rush + rec yds	Under 77.5	betmgm	-115	+637	+36.4
Will Shipley	PHI vs JAX	Rush + rec yds	Under 54.5	draftkings	-116	+587	+36.1
Derrick Henry	BAL vs ATL	Rush + rec yds	Under 90.5	betmgm	-115	+606	+35.8
Tyson Bagent	CHI vs GB	Passing yds	Under 212.5	betmgm	-115	+606	+35.8
Derrick Henry	BAL vs ATL	Rush + rec yds	Under 88.5	fanduel	-115	+546	+34.7
Will Shipley	PHI vs JAX	Rush + rec yds	Under 53.5	fanduel	-113	+547	+34.5
Derrick Henry	BAL vs ATL	Rush + rec yds	Under 87.5	betrivers	-117	+519	+34.2
Derrick Henry	BAL vs ATL	Rush + rec yds	Under 87.5	draftkings	-113	+519	+33.9
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs ARI	Rush + rec yds	Under 133.5	fanduel	-114	+515	+33.7
Will Shipley	PHI vs JAX	Rush + rec yds	Under 52.5	betmgm	-115	+510	+33.6
Xavier Hutchinson	HOU vs TEN	Receiving yds	Over 14.5	draftkings	-107	-461	+33.2
Xavier Hutchinson	HOU vs TEN	Receiving yds	Over 14.5	bovada	-110	-461	+33.2
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET vs ARI	Rush + rec yds	Under 131.5	draftkings	-115	+478	+33.1
Will Shipley	PHI vs JAX	Rushing yds	Under 35.5	bovada	-115	+490	+33.1

Line capture

Append-only store · every snapshot retained

51,251line observations

13snapshots

589players

1,715lines that moved

Market	Rows	Players	Books
Anytime TD	17,270	579	6
Receiving yds	11,573	245	7
Receptions	10,468	246	7
Rushing yds	5,712	118	7
Passing yds	2,499	41	7
Passing TDs	2,457	41	7
Rush + rec yds	1,272	58	5

Projections

All markets · retrained every run · TDs shown as fair American odds

Passing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs ARI	280.7
Dak Prescott	DAL @ GB	268.9
Tyler Shough	NO @ NYG	260.1
Jordan Love	GB vs DAL	250.5
Caleb Williams	CHI @ ATL	249.5
Kirk Cousins	LV vs BUF	245.3
C.J. Stroud	HOU @ JAX	244.9
Bryce Young	CAR @ PHI	243.0
Brock Purdy	SF vs WAS	241.1
Josh Allen	BUF @ LV	237.6
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs LAC	232.9
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ LA	232.8

Passing TDs

Player	Matchup	Projection
Matthew Stafford	LA vs ARI	2.37
Dak Prescott	DAL @ GB	1.77
Tyler Shough	NO @ NYG	1.75
Brock Purdy	SF vs WAS	1.73
Josh Allen	BUF @ LV	1.68
Jordan Love	GB vs DAL	1.67
Caleb Williams	CHI @ ATL	1.62
Patrick Mahomes	KC vs LAC	1.54
Trevor Lawrence	JAX vs HOU	1.53
Kirk Cousins	LV vs BUF	1.51
Jacoby Brissett	ARI @ LA	1.43
Bryce Young	CAR @ PHI	1.40

Rushing yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CHI	90.3
Derrick Henry	BAL @ CLE	89.7
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs LAC	89.2
James Cook	BUF @ LV	87.4
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs TEN	82.4
Jaylen Warren	PIT @ TB	69.7
Saquon Barkley	PHI vs CAR	64.6
Kyren Williams	LA vs ARI	64.2
Javonte Williams	DAL @ GB	63.9
Breece Hall	NYJ @ NE	61.6
Bucky Irving	TB vs PIT	61.2
D'Andre Swift	CHI @ ATL	60.2
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs BUF	60.0
Tony Pollard	TEN @ IND	59.8
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs WAS	57.0

Receiving yards

Player	Matchup	Projection
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ DEN	88.7
Puka Nacua	LA vs ARI	87.9
Chris Olave	NO @ NYG	87.5
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ GB	83.2
Michael Wilson	ARI @ LA	74.3
Zay Flowers	BAL @ CLE	71.8
Drake London	ATL vs CHI	70.0
Davante Adams	LA vs ARI	69.2
Carnell Tate	TEN @ IND	67.6
A.J. Brown	NE vs NYJ	67.3
Trey McBride	ARI @ LA	66.3
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ NE	65.4
Denzel Boston	CLE vs BAL	64.7
Nico Collins	HOU @ JAX	64.0
DeVonta Smith	PHI vs CAR	63.6

Receptions

Player	Matchup	Projection
Puka Nacua	LA vs ARI	6.63
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA @ DEN	6.55
Trey McBride	ARI @ LA	6.53
Chris Olave	NO @ NYG	6.51
CeeDee Lamb	DAL @ GB	6.47
Michael Wilson	ARI @ LA	5.75
Brock Bowers	LV vs BUF	5.29
Drake London	ATL vs CHI	5.28
Rashee Rice	KC vs LAC	5.22
Zay Flowers	BAL @ CLE	5.14
Carnell Tate	TEN @ IND	5.09
A.J. Brown	NE vs NYJ	5.00
DeVonta Smith	PHI vs CAR	4.98
Garrett Wilson	NYJ @ NE	4.90
Nico Collins	HOU @ JAX	4.72

Anytime TD

Player	Matchup	Chance	Fair odds
Christian McCaffrey	SF vs WAS	62%	-163
Kyren Williams	LA vs ARI	58%	-136
Javonte Williams	DAL @ GB	57%	-133
James Cook	BUF @ LV	57%	-132
D'Andre Swift	CHI @ ATL	57%	-132
Kenneth Walker III	KC vs LAC	57%	-131
Jonathan Taylor	IND vs TEN	56%	-129
Josh Allen	BUF @ LV	56%	-128
Bijan Robinson	ATL vs CHI	55%	-123
Puka Nacua	LA vs ARI	51%	-103
Ashton Jeanty	LV vs BUF	49%	+103
Derrick Henry	BAL @ CLE	47%	+113
Jaylen Warren	PIT @ TB	46%	+118
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE vs NYJ	45%	+123
Davante Adams	LA vs ARI	44%	+127

Read this before acting on anything above

These edges are not validated. Yardage over-probabilities come from a normal approximation, but yards are right-skewed, so high lines are overstated. Touchdown markets use a Poisson, which is better suited to counts but assumes scoring chances are independent within a game. Anytime-TD prices are one-sided, so no vig is removed from them and those edges are understated rather than inflated. The devig is proportional, which disagrees with Shin and power methods on longshots. Most importantly, the model has never been checked against realized outcomes versus stored lines, because no prop history existed before August 2026.

Backtesting found no edge from scheme features, and the closing spread beat the game model in every season tested. A number in the edge column means the model disagrees with the book — not that the model is right.